Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the area through this evening. High
pressure builds into the area later tonight through the middle
of next week bringing more seasonal temperatures and dry
conditions. Another cold front potentially impacts the region
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

The forecast remains on track for this evening through tonight.
Latest observations show the cold front moving through the
western half of the area, with it on the doorstep of RIC/I-95
corridor. The cold front will continue to race east across the
area and clear the entire CWA by 00z/8 PM this evening. A line
of gusty showers (with possibly a few embedded rumbles of
thunder) is noted along/just ahead of front, which will also
continue to race off to the east. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
have been observed with these showers which may have the
capability of downing a few large limbs or a couple of trees.
Winds may gust to as high as 50 mph, especially in areas exposed
to water in the VA Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore. Winds
shift to NW behind the front and will remain gusty as a result
of sharp pressure rises. In addition, expect a 2 to 3 hour
window of light to moderate rain in the wake of the front
(especially E and NE). Temperatures fall sharply in the wake of
the front, quickly dropping from the 80s into the 60s.

For tonight, some lingering showers will be possible right along
the immediate coast during the first part of the night,
otherwise skies clear fairly quickly from the WNW- ESE as cool
high pressure begins to build toward the region from the west.
Much cooler with lows dropping back into the 40s for many
locations away from the coast (low to mid 50s right along the
coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

Dry/mainly sunny wx and cooler temperatures prevail tomorrow
through Tuesday. NW flow aloft is expected to continue through
the short term period as the upper trough slowly pulls away to
the NE (but lingers INVOF Atlantic Canada). The surface high
will continue to slowly build toward the area, and is progged to
become centered just to our WSW by late Mon night into Tuesday.
Highs will struggle to make it out of the mid 60s on Sunday
across much of the area despite full sunshine. Sunday night will
be the coolest night of the fall so far. Lows are forecast to
be in the low 40s in the VA Piedmont (possibly upper 30s in the
typically cooler spots such as LKU), low to mid 40s in most
other inland locations, and upper 40s-low 50s near the immediate
coast. Forecast highs on Mon are a bit warmer, with upper 60s
expected for the vast majority of the area. Cool again Mon night
with lows similar to what is expected Sun night. The warming
trend continues into Tuesday with highs expected to reach the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

NW flow aloft potentially continues through Tue before the flow
flattens out and becomes quasi-zonal over the Mid-Atlantic by the
middle of next week. The sfc high settles just to our SW from Tue-
Tue night, then shifts offshore during the latter part of the week.
Forecast remains dry through Thu, with slight rain chances returning
by Friday-Friday night as another cold front approaches. A warming
trend is expected from Tue-Thu, with highs warming from the low 70s
on Tue to mid-upper 70s by Thu. Mid to upper 70s are expected in
most areas on Fri. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s
Tuesday night, in the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, and in the
50s to near 60F Thursday night. Friday night will be slightly cooler
with lows back to the low-mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Saturday...

FROPA is ongoing just west of the CWA. Winds have started to gust up
to 20-24KT at RIC,SBY,PHF and ORF out of the SW. RIC should expect
showers to begin with the FROPA around 20Z. ORF/SBY/PHF can expect
showers to start between 21-22z. Showers at ECG will be start later
around 23z. PCPN will likely last 2-4 hrs. During and
immediately after FROPA (about 1hr), winds will shift to the
WNW-NW and gust to ~30kt. CIGs may drop to MVFR as the front
passes this evening. VSBYs are expected to mostly remain VFR,
but MVFR is possible with heavier pockets of rain. Skies will
clear out overnight as dry air moves into the area. ORF will
remain gusty through the night, but other terminals should see
winds diminish to around 10kt. Winds out of the NW will increase
again tomorrow with gusts between 20-25kt.

Outlook... VFR conditions are expected into next week. Gusty NW
winds will persist through Monday, especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Cold front now along-just E of the I 95 corridor and will be
continuing E this afternoon...crossing the local waters from
about 21Z/16-00Z/17. SSW winds will be gusty to 20-25 kt ahead
of the front...then winds will become NW and gusty to 25-35 kt
(briefly to 40-50kt w/ and shortly behind SHRAs/the front). CAA
tonight- Sun will keep NW winds avgg 15-25 kt. Waves will be
2-4 ft on the bay...seas 4-6 ft. CAA is slow to wane late Sun-
Mon resulting in speeds. SCAs will remain up on most waters
through Sun night...have extended the SCA through Mon morning on
Ches Bay. Sfc hi pres settles over the mid- Atlantic waters
providing quiet marine wx conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday

Coastal flood advisory remains in place for Dorchester county MD
until 20Z/16 as current high tide ongoing. Some potential for
nuisance flooding along the VA eastern shore (i.e Bayford) as
strong NW winds push water into that area this evening-Sun
morning. A Coastal Flood Statement may be needed there.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>637.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small
Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ638-650-652-
654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/AM/ERI
AVIATION...AJB/AM
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
345 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

MDZ022>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-171945-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-Northampton-
Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
345 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021-171945-
Dorchester-
345 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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