Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will remain over the area into early next
week. A few disturbances will move along the edge of the ridge
and bring isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to
portions of the area through the weekend. The remnants of Ida
approach the region by the mid to late week leading to more
unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Evening surface analysis shows high pressure at the surface and
aloft is anchored across the SE CONUS as hurricane Ida makes
northward progress in the Gulf. A weak surface trough/wind shift
has dropped south into NC. North of this boundary winds are out
of the N and NE while to the south W and SW winds dominate.
Thunderstorms have ended across southern portions of the FA.
However, scattered storms are increasing in coverage across
northern Va and are moving SE this evening towards portions of
the Piedmont. Storms are expected to gradually weaken as they
drop SE tonight with the loss of diurnal instability. Any
lingering showers come to an end prior to midnight. Guidance
continues to advertise the possibility for fog and low stratus
across the Piedmont, Eastern Shore, and along the Ches Bay after
late tonight through early Sun. Overnight lows in the upper 60s
and low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

A weak area of low pressure moves offshore Sunday morning which when
combined with high pressure building in from the NE will allow the
backdoor front to make some SW progress. Will show slightly lower
high temps across the MD eastern shore but otherwise expect another
hot day on Sunday with high temps in the low 90s. Shower and storm
coverage will favor the SW half of the area (near/ahead of the
front). A few showers linger after sunset but Sunday night should be
mostly dry with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Warm and humid again on Monday with afternoon highs a few degrees
warmer than Sunday in the low/mid 90s. Chance for afternoon showers
and storms across the north as flow aloft transitions to zonal with
the upper ridge nudging south into GA. Lows overnight in the upper
60s and low 70s with a few mid 70s near the coast. TC Ida loses
strength over the TN Valley on Tuesday but the remnant low and upper
trough will move NE toward the Mid-Atlantic. Hot again with highs in
the low 90s. Relative best chance for shower and storms on Tuesday
will exist across the NW but PoPs will generally be aob 40%.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

All eyes turn to the remnants of Ida in the extended range forecast.
Guidance begins to differ with respect to exactly where the remnant
low and associated moisture track on Wednesday with the GFS and GEM
slightly faster than the ECMWF. Regardless, it looks like a wet few
days across the area as the tropical moisture interacts with a front
coming down from the north. Will show the highest PoPs across the N
and NW on Wednesday, spreading southward on Thursday. Most of the
moisture looks to be shunted eastward on Friday.

Temperatures will be a few degrees lower across the NW on Wednesday
with increased showers and clouds, generally in the low to mid 80s.
Elsewhere, expect another warm/hot day with highs in the upper 80s
and low 90s. Clouds will be more widespread on Thursday with high
temps in the upper 70s with low/mid 80s for the SE portion of the
area. Similar temps expected on Friday with low 80s on average.
Temps on Saturday range from the low 80s N and NE to the mid and
upper 80s S SE. Overnight lows Wednesday range from the mid 60s NW
to the low 70s SE. Cooler Thursday and Friday nights with low 60s
inland and upper 60s to low 70s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered storms are ongoing across northern VA and will
continue to push SE over the next several hours into portions of
the Piedmont before dissipating overnight. Uncertainty remains
regarding how far SE the storms make it. Have therefore gone
with a VCTS for RIC for now. Winds are mostly out of the NNE/NE
around 5 kt, will become light overnight (<5 kt), and will
become N 5-10 kt Sun. Guidance is fairly robust concerning the
potential for MVFR/IFR fog and stratus overnight. The highest
confidence in IFR conditions exists across the N and NW but
should be close enough to impact SBY and RIC, generally after
06z. Will show IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBY for now but one or the
other could dominate and result in LIFR conditions for a few
hours before sunrise on Sun. PHF/ORF could also see some MVFR
CIGs/VIS from stratus/fog overnight. It could take a while for
stratus/fog to burn off Sun morning, but expect a return to VFR
conditions between 15-18z from S to N. Additional storms are
possible Sun afternoon in the Piedmont, but confidence in
timing and coverage is not high enough to mention in the tafs at
this time.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions continue through Tues outside
of afternoon storms. Reduced flight conditions will be possible
Tues night into Wed depending on the track of the remnants of
Hurricane Ida.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

A weak backdoor cold front will continue to sag S tonight, but
with no cold advection winds will be minimal, generally 10kt or
less. With a weak sfc low/trough off the coast on Sunday, a
period of 10-15kt winds will be possible in the Bay but expect
winds to diminish and become onshore later in the day. No
headlines are anticipated with waves 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft seas
(seas may briefly hit 3-4 ft N).

The system pushes farther offshore by Mon, allowing winds to
return to the south. Models also show daily sea-breezes
developing Mon/Tues as the flow remains light. The remnants of
Ida combined with a approaching cold front is expected to bring
increased southerly flow by Wed and then winds shifting to the
N Thu/Fri. SCA conditions will be possible though confidence
remains low at this time. The current forecast is for 2 ft waves
in the Bay and seas building to ~4ft. With seas building to
near 3 ft nearshore across the N, went ahead with moderate rip
current risk for the MD beaches on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/RMM
MARINE...LKB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-292000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-
Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-292000-
Maryland Beaches-
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
120 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

VAZ060-061-066>068-290600-
Lunenburg VA-Nottoway VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-Prince Edward VA-
120 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Cumberland, Prince Edward, northwestern Lunenburg, northwestern
Nottoway and west central Amelia Counties through 200 AM EDT...

At 119 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sheppards to Madisonville. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy downpours and frequent
         lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Crewe, Hampden Sydney, Hampden Sydney College, Longwood
University, Burkeville, Guinea Mills, Darlington Heights, Rice, Green
Bay, Prospect, Raines Tavern, Tuggle, Prince Edward Station, Briery,
Twin Lakes State Park, Hawk, Kingsville, Elam and Meherrin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 7868 3732 7863 3734 7860 3739 7859
      3738 7859 3733 7851 3733 7847 3747 7837
      3732 7810 3705 7819 3708 7832 3707 7844
      3709 7848 3713 7851 3715 7855 3714 7858
      3717 7863 3719 7864 3720 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 315DEG 22KT 3742 7848 3716 7867

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

44

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