Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Henri continues to move NNW away from the local
area towards Rhode Island and is expected to make landfall
today. An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic into
Monday. An upper level ridge builds back into the area through
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Sunday...

Latest sfc analysis depicts Henri near Block Island RI, heading
NNW. Henri is expected to make landfall over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, high pressure attempts to push into the area from
the W today. A cluster of showers/tstms has developed over the
northern Delmarva this morning, and this activity has the
potential to push into northern Dorchester County through noon.
Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny this morning with temperatures
in the mid 70s to low 80s.

The upper trough remains over the area today. Meanwhile, a shortwave
trough is expected to rotate through the upper trough late this
afternoon/early this evening. This has the potential to trigger some
diurnal afternoon/early evening showers/tstms. The greatest chance
for showers/storms will be eastern portions of the FA. Convection
may linger into early tonight depending on the speed of the
shortwave trough. Highs today in the upper 80s to around 90F W and
in the mid to upper 80s over the Eastern Shore under a partly sunny
sky. Any convection tapers off from W to E overnight with lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

The upper trough axis is expected to move off the coast Monday.
Diurnal showers/storms remain possible in a bimodal pattern with
isolated convection possible in the SE as the trough departs and in
the NW Piedmont late in the day off the lee trough if enough
destabilization occurs. A coastal boundary on Tues will allow for a
slight chance of a few isolated storms in SE VA/NE NC Tues
afternoon.

Highs Mon in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warmer temps expected on
Tues with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows Mon and Tues nights in
the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 70s along the immediate coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

A mid/upper level ridge builds over the Mid-Atlantic through the
extended with surface high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. High pressure is expected to move W by late week into the
weekend, centering over the SE this weekend. Diurnal convection will
be possible in the SE Wed due to coastal boundary. Additional
diurnal convection will be possible through late week into the
weekend with the greatest chance in the western Piedmont. Minimal
PoPs are forecast Wed and Thurs with an increase in afternoon
shower/tstm chances by Fri-Sun. However, confidence in this remains
low.

Lows generally range from the upper 60s west to low to mid 70s east.
Highs range from the lower to mid 90s Wed, lower 90s Thurs and Fri,
and upper 80s to around 90F Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Sunday...

Scattered showers/tstms are developing this afternoon as an
upper level trough slowly pivots across the region. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected outside of showers/tstms, with brief
IFR/LIFR vsby possible in heavy rain and MVFR cigs if a
shower/tstm directly impacts a terminal. Showers/tstms are
expected to largely dissipate by 02z, with passing mid clouds
overnight as the upper level trough axis swings across the area.
Patchy fog with MVFR vsby is possible near RIC if clouds
scatter early enough. Mostly sunny Monday with some SCT
afternoon CU and a light SW wind.

Mainly dry and VFR conditions area expected Tuesday through
Friday as an upper level ridge builds across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

TC passing by well E of the local waters has had a largely minimal
effect. The system has caused increased swells/seas since Fri
afternoon/night. Now...as the TC moves into the NE US
today...conditions will continue to improve. Seas already
subsiding...but a swell will linger (at least today). SCA remaining
up for MD ocean waters though may come down sooner than this afternoon
given current trends. OTW...a trough aloft and a weak sfc trough will
linger over the region into early this week before a ridge aloft
builds in from the gulf states for mid/late week.

Prevailing winds will be generally SSW AOB 10 kt (locally a bit higher
speeds late each day) the next several days. Waves avgg 1-2 ft...seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft.

Continuing w/ high rips N while lowering the risk to moderate S today.
Moderate rips N and low S Mon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ALB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>081-087-088-
092-509>517-519-521-231900-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Greensville-Sussex-Southampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-231900-
Maryland Beaches-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-231900-
Eastern Currituck-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ098-231900-
Virginia Beach-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
have the potential to produce hail, locally strong wind gusts, and
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ099-100-231900-
Accomack-Northampton-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
have the potential to produce hail, locally strong wind gusts, and
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ075>078-082>086-089-090-093-095>097-518-520-522>525-231900-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-New Kent-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Surry-James City-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Eastern King William-
Eastern King and Queen-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia,
eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
have the potential to produce hail, locally strong wind gusts, and
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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