Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
142 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred will track northeast
across the mountains through tonight. High pressure builds
across the southeastern states later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday...

Late morning wx analysis reveals TD Fred lifting NE from the WV
Panhandle toward SW PA. WV Satellite imagery shows a band of
clouds streaming across the area just ahead of a very well
defined mid-level dry slot. Regional radar mosaic now shows a
narrow (broken) line of showers and isolated tstms lifting NNE
over the VA Piedmont. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-1 km SRH values
of 100-150 m2/s2 for most of the area, due to SE-SSE flow at the
sfc veering to the SSW by 925mb. Latest CAMs still showing
activity picking up locally by midday and especially early aftn
with the increase in heating, as the center of Fred lifts into
PA. SPC has maintained a MRGL Risk across the nrn two-thirds of
the FA for the potential of a couple brief tornadoes. Also will
keep the Flash Flood Watch as is for the RIC metro and points
NW (in effect through 8 PM). Only made minor changes to the
forecast (mainly to trend PoPs a bit quicker given radar trends)
with the morning update.

Previous Discussion as of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Regarding the heavy rain threat...We have expanded Flash Flood
Watch to include the remainder of the Tri-Cities, as well as
Prince George, King William, and Caroline counties (VA) through this
evening. These areas, along with the existing watch area that
includes the I-64 corridor from RIC metro on NW, have received a
lot of rain over the past few days...1-1.5" of rain in RVA. The
added counties also have diminished FFG from recent rains, and
thinking is that as showers and storms push in and become more
widespread/numerous later this morning into early aftn, brief
heavy downpours over a short time will be enough to cause
additional issues. As far as the ERO, WPC has continued a
slight risk for the western half of the area (mainly I-95 on
west). This includes the FF Watch area. The I-85 corridor in our
SW tier of counties has been held out of the watch for now,
with FFG still a bit higher at this time. However, we'll need to
monitor this area as well.

Next issue will be with potential severe and tornado Risk.
Still appears as if best lift and support will be just to our NW
in the foothills and points farther north. However, 0-1 KM
shear axis will become enhanced by 25-30kt h9 SSW flow, enabling
0-1km SRH of 200- 250 m2/s2 to lift N and brush our far NW tier
of counties. Given this enhanced LL shear and potential quick
backing of Sfc winds, will need to watch our piedmont counties
very closely for a quick- developing tornado as the approaching
line of convection pushes SW>NE across the VA piedmont toward
I-95 late this morning into the early aftn. Will also need to
monitor areas farther south from the Tri-Cities over to the
peninsulas given more subtle, yet potentially problematic setup
early this aftn for damaging winds and/or tornado. Our VA
Piedmont, Central VA, VA peninsulas, and the Bay side
communities of the lower MD eastern shore are highlighted in a
marginal risk of severe wx from SPC.

Main line of showers and storms pushes offshore early this
evening, and expect a lull in PCPN late tonight in subsidence
behind the departing system late tonight. However, while PWs AOA
2" push east of I-95, they look to linger/hang along the coast
overnight tonight. As such, a brief shower cannot be completely
ruled out over the coastal plain and the eastern shore. Thus, we
will maintain a slight chance PoP through the overnight hours.
Partial clearing and muggy with lows mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

As the remnants of T.C Fred lift across New England Thu, a
trailing mid/upper trough axis pivots toward and eventually
across the area. Embedded DPVA and moist airmass still in place
across the region will ramp up rain chances all over again Thu.
Expect mid- late aftn to early evening convection to focus along
pre- frontal sfc trough draped SW to NE across central VA into
the Delmarva. Kept PoP in 30-40% range for now. Remaining quite
humid, and continued seasonably very warm. Highs in the mid 80s
to around 90.

Similar setup for Friday, with additional shortwave energy
crossing the area as the approaching upper trough slides across
the interior northeast. Expect showers to be a bit more
widespread on Friday with the trough axis closer, and with llvl
convergence again getting enhanced by the approaching (weak)
frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sfc front settles near or just south of the region this
weekend...but the upper trough axis remains near the coast while the
latest NHC forecast/models consensus shows TC Henri tracking
offshore of the region while remaining parallel to the VA/MD coast.
As far as the overall pattern, operational models and their
respective ensembles are now forecasting the strong subtropical
ridge to remain centered over the srn Plains/wrn Gulf coast from
late this weekend through early next week. This will keep our region
in W to NW flow aloft from late this weekend through early next week
(Henri potentially comes very close to the New England coast by
Monday). Will certainly see an elevated rip risk from the weekend
through early next week.

As for precipitation chances, will keep a low chance for iso to
widely sct diurnal showers and t-storms on Sunday, as the
tropical moisture and upper trough linger (especially near the
coast). A lesser opportunity for showers and storms expected on
Monday and Tuesday, as the upper trough will be northeast of
the area.

For temperatures, have generally run close to or just above the NBM
for highs and lows, based up the continued moisture and the recent
trend of overachieving during the day. So have lows generally in the
upper 60s west to low to mid 70s east. For highs have readings
in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday and push readings into the
upper 80s-around 90F early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

TD Fred is lifting NE across wrn PA early this aftn. A broken line
of sct-numerous showers are crossing RIC attm...with additional
convection near ECG. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR or
high-end MVFR through the aftn. The remnants of Fred are
expected to track well to the NW of the area through this
evening. The aforementioned line of scattered showers/tstms are
expected to impact the coastal terminals from late afternoon
through late evening (20-01z). Brief IFR/LIFR vsby restrictions
are likely in any shower/tstm due to heavy rain. Southerly winds
could occasionally gust to ~20kt through early this
evening...then winds turn more to the SW and diminish to aob
10kt for the remainder of the TAF period. Dry/VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals from 03z/11 PM this evening through
early Thu aftn.

Outlook: More typical late day showers/tstms are expected on
Thursday. A shortwave trough approaches Thu night-
Fri...resulting in an increase in convection in the northern
portion of the area (including RIC) Friday morning before
showers/tstms progress southward through the day. Diurnal
convection returns on Saturday. Late night/early morning sub-
VFR conditions are possible from Thu night-Fri night in ST/SC
and MIFG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...

Have started the SCA for the Ches Bay (until 4 AM Thurs) and
for the mouth of the Ches Bay and Lower James (until 10 PM). The
SCAs are for SSE winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

Current surface analysis depicts TD Fred near the corner of SW VA/E
KY/SW WV. The remnants of TD Fred will continue to track NNE along
the Appalachians today before moving into the NE on Thurs. As a
result, SSE winds generally 10 to 15 kt this morning will increase
to 15 to 20 kt over the Ches Bay and Lower James by late this
morning into early this afternoon, eventually increasing to 15 to 20
kt over the coastal waters by late this afternoon. As the low tracks
NW of the local waters by this evening, winds become S. Winds then
become SW and subside to 10-15 kt late tonight before diminishing to
5-10 kt Thurs. A weak trough moves in from the W Thurs night
allowing for winds to shift to NW/N ~5 kt into Fri.

By Fri, a shortwave trough will pivot into the region and linger
invof the aforementioned coastal trough which becomes nearly
stationary through the weekend. Meanwhile, TS Henri will approach
from the SE Fri before the shortwave trough deflects it away from
the local waters as it moves N, paralleling the coast. Although a
direct impact is not expected at this time, the timing of both the
shortwave trough and Henri will be key in how close Henri gets to
the local waters. Given Henri's current expected track, it appears
likely that elevated seas, longer period swells, and an increased
rip risk will occur through the weekend.

Seas will generally be 2-3 ft this morning with 1-2 ft waves on the
Bay. Seas and waves increase to 3-4 ft and 2-3 ft respectively by
this afternoon, persisting through tonight. Seas and waves subside
to 2-3 ft and 1-2 ft respectively Thurs. In response to TS Henri
approaching the local waters Fri into this weekend, seas increase to
3-4 ft Fri and 4-6 ft Sat into Sat night before gradually subsiding
Sun. SCAs will likely be needed if model trends continue to show a
closer track of Henri with respect to the local waters.

A moderate rip risk remains for the northern beaches through Thurs
with a low rip risk for the southern beaches today, increasing to a
moderate rip risk Thurs. All beaches will likely see moderate-high
rip risks Fri through the weekend as the period and seas increase in
response to TS Henri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-
     064-069-081>083-509>518.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
430 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ092-093-095>098-190830-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
430 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding this afternoon
into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ048-062-064-069-081>083-509>518-190830-
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Prince George-Charles City-
New Kent-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-
430 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, north central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out late this morning into
late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ021>024-VAZ060-061-065>068-075>080-084>090-519>525-190830-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
430 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some of the
storms may produce strong gusty winds. Additionally, another round
of heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding this afternoon
into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-190830-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
430 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1158 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

VAZ069-513-181630-
Western Chesterfield VA-Powhatan VA-
1158 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Chesterfield and southeastern Powhatan Counties through 1230 PM
EDT...

At 1158 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Moseley, moving northeast at 25 mph. Doppler Radar has
indicated weak rotation with this storm.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Moseley, Holly Hills, Skinquarter, Midlothian, Clayville and
Pilkinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 7787 3740 7787 3758 7778 3749 7757
      3730 7779 3731 7781 3732 7780 3734 7780
      3734 7784 3736 7786 3737 7788 3738 7788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 212DEG 24KT 3737 7782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

EI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
217 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

VAZ088-089-092-181900-
Surry VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-
217 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Southampton,
Sussex and southwestern Surry Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Boykins, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain up to 2 inches
         possible

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Courtland, Wakefield, Sussex, Ivor, Dendron, Homeville,
Capron, Vicksville, Booth Fork, Adams Grove, Carsley, Grizzard,
Booker, Yale, Lumberton, Ellis Fork, Worrell, Hilda and Dory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Wakefield.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 7746 3671 7743 3672 7746 3710 7718
      3711 7716 3717 7708 3702 7679 3699 7685
      3696 7686 3694 7684 3657 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 215DEG 33KT 3669 7728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SEYMOUR