Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
334 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered just offshore the Carolina coast will
slide east as a cold front approaches Saturday afternoon. The
frontal boundary will slowly cross the area Saturday then linger
near the Virginia North Carolina border into the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Heat Advisory remain in effect today through 7pm. Heat index
values were generally between 105 and 110 degrees this
afternoon with a few spots in the southeast just over 110.
Thunderstorms over the mountains and piedmont should slowly push
east into portions of central VA. Question is how much
thunderstorm coverage we will see in Central VA. High res
guidance has backed off some compard to earlier this morning,
but most guidance suggests scattered storms pushing east into
Central VA through 7 to 8 pm. Given MLCAPE of 2500-3000 j/kg
and decent DCAPE, any storms which develop could produce strong
to damaging downbursts. Again the question will be how much
coverage we see between now and 8 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

A slow moving cold front will be move south across Maryland and
Virginia Saturday. The front will be slow and not move into
central and southeast VA until late the afternoon / early
evening. This means that another hot and humid day for Saturday
for Richmond and points south and east to NC and the coast.
Heat Index values will peak out near 105 on Saturday, but it
looks as though there will be a little more cloud cover in the
afternoon. While we do expect some locations to just touch a
heat index of 105 for an hour or so, will hold off on any new
Heat Advisories for Saturday. High temps warm into the lower 90s
with dew points in the upper 70s to around 80, so again one
more hot day across central and southeast VA as well as
northeast NC though not nearly as hot as today.

The cold front will move into area north of Richmond and the MD
Eastern Shore early in the afternoon with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms spreading from the northwest to southeast
gradually through the afternoon and into the evening. In areas
north and west of Richmond and across MD, dewpoints will be
slightly lower with temperatures topping out around 90.

The cold front will eventually move south into central/southern
VA late Saturday afternoon into early evening. The front will
slow the farther south it moves. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front. PWAT values will be 2.00"-2.25" at this
time. WPC has place most of our Virginia counties in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall. Heavy rain will be the main threat
with these storms which could be slow moving and train over some
of the same locations. Localized flooding is possible Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. SPC has also placed the entire
area in a Marginal Risk for severe storm due to heating and the
potential for strong storms to produce damaging downbursts.

The cold front will stall near the VA/NC border Sunday morning.
It loos like there will be a bit of a break in the widespread
rain Sunday morning with some scattered showers ongoing. Shower
coverage increase through the afternoon with a threat for heavy
rain continuing for portions of VA and NC. Pops Sunday will be
lower across the north, farther from the front. High
temperatures Sunday will be much cooler with highs in upper 70s
to low 80s. Overnight low temperatures will remain around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Continued rather unsettled into next week. We will continue to
see an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday. Sfc high pressure is expected to be centered across
New England for much of next week. At the same time, a ridge
aloft will be building off the southeast coast of the U.S. This
will allow for a continuous flow of tropical moisture from the
Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. In addition, moisture from
Tropical Cyclone Fred may reach the region next week. Pops will
be between 40% and 70% mainly in the afternoons and evenings.
High temperatures will be much cooler, in the low to mid 80. Low
temperatures will be around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions continue for this afternoon and evening with sct
cu around 5 kft. Scattered showers and storms will try and push
east to near RIC (and perhaps even SBY) late this evening and
will have to watch to see how well the storms hold together.
Storms which develop will produce strong gusty winds in excess
of 25 kt along with heavy rain reducing vsby to less than 1
mile in downpours. Again question will be how many storms make
it all the way to RIC and perhaps even SBY. Showers and storms
will be the primary concerns at RIC and SBY this evening with
generally VFR conditions expected mostly locations overnight and
into early Saturday.

Outlook... Chances for showers/tstms increase across the entire
area Saturday afternoon and evening as slow moving cold front
drops south. The front will likely staff near the NC/VA border
resulting in a prolonged period of MVFR conditions from late
Saturday through the weekend and into early next week. Periods
of MVFR ceiling and showers/storms will persist Monday and
Tuesday as tropical moisture streams north into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows a weak sfc trough to the west of the
waters and an approaching cold front over the Great Lakes. High
pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic (well offshore of the local
area). Winds are generally S-SW 5-10 kt, with some local sea
breeze component as well. Wave heights are ~1 ft, with seas of
~2 ft. Expect a nocturnal increase in S-SW winds (to ~15 kt)
tonight (similar to last night) before winds diminish to 5-10 kt
during the day on Saturday.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the
weekend into early next week. The aforementioned cold front drops
across the waters from N to S late Sat night through Sunday (but may
stall across NE NC late Sunday). Expect some sea breeze component to
the wind over the waters late Sat afternoon into the evening. Winds
turn to the NE following the FROPA Sat night-Sunday, with the
highest speeds (10-15 kt) expected north of New Pt Comfort/Cape
Charles, with speeds remaining no higher than 10-12 kt across the
Lower Bay/srn coastal waters. Winds remain onshore into early next
week, as the weakening cold front stalls across NE NC or just south
of the region and washes out. Winds become S-SE by midweek,
remaining sub-SCA throughout the period. Seas will generally be
2-3 ft through early next week...with 1-2 ft waves on the bay.

Low rip risk for area beaches Sat/Sun.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...CP/JAO
SHORT TERM...CP/JAO
LONG TERM...CP/JAO
AVIATION...CP/MPR
MARINE...ERI/MAM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
550 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

VAZ064-511-132230-
Western Hanover VA-Caroline VA-
550 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Caroline and
north central Hanover Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kings Dominion, or 7 miles north of Randolph Macon College, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds to 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Rainfall up to 2 inches is possible
         which may result in minor localized flooding.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Milford around 620 PM EDT.
  Bowling Green around 625 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sparta, Golansville,
Oliver, Burruss Corner, Gum Tree, Cedar Fork, Hewlett, Doswell,
Ruther Glen and Penola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with ${thisEvent}. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central, north central and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 7716 3805 7714 3774 7742 3786 7760
      3804 7759 3808 7755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 216DEG 21KT 3787 7746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

ALB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

VAZ075-521-132300-
Westmoreland VA-Western Essex VA-
625 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Westmoreland County through 700 PM EDT...

At 625 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leedstown, or near Colonial Beach, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Colonial Beach around 700 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Lerty, Potomac Beach,
Potomac Mills, Oak Grove, Peeds, Westmoreland State and Chance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 7696 3823 7696 3821 7695 3820 7691
      3818 7688 3816 7684 3804 7698 3812 7709
      3815 7708 3814 7708 3815 7707 3817 7706
      3818 7705 3826 7705 3828 7698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 213DEG 10KT 3816 7702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MILFORD            38.01N 77.33W
08/13/2021                   CAROLINE           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINE
            COUNTY. TREES DOWN ALONG RICHMOND TURNPIKE
            SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN. TREES ALSO DOWN
            AROUND BOWLING GREEN.

&&

JO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
702 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

VAZ075>077-521-522-132345-
Richmond VA-Northumberland VA-Westmoreland VA-Western Essex VA-
Eastern Essex VA-
702 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Northumberland, Richmond, southeastern Westmoreland and southeastern
Essex Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tappahannock, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tappahannock, Warsaw, Callao, Kinsale, Dunnsville, Hague, Lewisetta,
Heathsville, Farnham, Haynesville, Sharps, Westmoreland, Lottsburg,
Threeway, Upright, Tidewater, Lyells, Middletons Corner, Kennard and
Mount Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Wakefield.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 7660 3807 7653 3806 7653 3805 7652
      3803 7652 3802 7647 3797 7641 3792 7638
      3779 7690 3795 7699 3814 7661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 251DEG 22KT 3789 7686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

SEYMOUR