Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
122 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and cross
the area tonight. Cooler and drier air returns as high pressure
builds in from the northwest for the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest wx analysis reveals upper troughing over the interior
northeast dropping E-SE across the northern Mid- Atlantic. Weak
sfc low pressure is centered off the coast of eastern New
England, with the associated sfc cold front extending S-SW from
SE NY into E PA into the central Appalachians. Smoke from the
PC NW continue to trigger reports of diminished VIS in haze
dotted across the region, and have included HZ in grids for the
balance of the aftn.

Svr Watch 385 in effect until 00z for MD in the local area. NW
flow aloft persists through the day, as shortwave trough and
associated surface low track across the northeast CONUS/New
England. These features will drag a cold front across the local
area tonight. CU has begun to develop across NW third of the
area, and based on CAMs, specifically time-lagged HRRR/RAP,
Tstms will initially develop just to our NW over N VA and W MD
during the next few hours, with iso to widely sct showers and
T-Storms then to drop E-SE mainly across areas east of I-95
during the 3-9 PM timeframe before diurnal weakening occurs
(with the most areal coverage expected from the northern
neck/peninsulas over to the Lower Ern Shore). Will continue to
keep PoPs out of the forecast for the far western tier of
counties in the VA Piedmont (due to downslope flow/lower PWs),
with 20-50% PoPs from the I-95 corridor toward central/ern
portions of the FA.

The main threat with any storms that do form is isolated
damaging wind gusts (given that the environment will be
characterized by dry mid-levels, steep low-level lapse rates,
and mid level flow increasing to 30-40kt out of the NW). Also
concerned for frequent lightning in NW flow this evening. Will
keep slight chc PoPs across SE VA and NE NC for lingering
showers/tstms through 1 AM. Drier with a modest increase in NNW
winds behind the front by sunrise on Thu. Lows tonight range
from the mid 60s N to the low 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Dry/mostly sunny wx prevails for the late week period, as high
pressure settles just to our N by Thu night before moving offshore
by Friday. Highs Thu are in the mid-upper 80s for most, and
lows Fri morning are forecasted to fall into the low to mid 60s
(except for upper 60s to ~70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC). Becoming
mostly clear by Thursday, though some continued incursions from
smoke from PAC NW wildfires in W-NW flow aloft are likely
through at least the remainder of the week (and even into next
week).

Mainly dry weather continues for Friday. Will maintain slight
chance PoPs for aftn/evening tstms as a weak sfc trough moves
toward our area from the Carolinas. However, expect PWs will
remain low enough that activity will be isolated at best...so
will cap PoP at 20% mainly across srn VA and interior NE NC.
Highs Fri will generally be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

West to northwest flow aloft continues over the upcoming
weekend through early next week, as the heat ridge remains
anchored in place across the central/srn Plains. As is typical
at this time of the year, the main synoptic features/frontal
boundaries are progged to remain well to our north. This
pattern likely portends the return of mainly diurnally-driven
late afternoon/evening thunderstorms, as multiple weak
shortwaves in the W-NW flow aloft drift across the area. Went a
bit lower than NBM for PoPs during the period for now, but will
still have slight chc or chc PoPs each day from Sat-Tue.
Temperatures through the period will remain fairly seasonable
for late July. Highs will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions (w/ SCT-BKN high clouds) are expected to prevail
through the remainder of the morning with SSW or SW winds
around 5-10kt. A cold front will approach from the NW today,
and cross the area this evening through tonight. Expect SCT-BKN
CU to develop by early aftn. Smoke (that will mainly be aloft)
associated with western wildfires will likely make it down to
RIC/SBY today, but it should not result in significant flight
restrictions, though did include HZ for the first few hours of
the TAF period.

Scattered tstms are expected mainly from 20-02z across terminals
in eastern/SE VA and the Lower MD Eastern Shore in advance of
the cold front. Include mention at SBY/PHF, but will hold out
of ORF for now aside from vicinity mention. Brief IFR to LIFR
conditions and gusty winds are likely in any tstm.

OUTLOOK...Any lingering convection dissipates by late this
evening with winds shifting to the NNW at 5-10kt overnight.
VFR/mainly dry conditions expected Thu through midday Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Starting out w/ SSW winds mainly less than 10 kt over the local
waters...expecting an increase to 10-15 kt today ahead of a
cold front approaching from the NNW. Waves/seas 1-2 ft. The cold
front crosses the local waters tonight switching winds to NNW.
Wind probs continue to show very lo probs for SCA conditions.
Will generally go w/ speeds avgg 15 kt for the cool/dry air
advection. Waves 1-2 ft...seas 2-3 ft. NNE winds quickly
diminish Thu then become VRB less than 10 kt for Fri into the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...ALB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1217 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>068-079-087-221630-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Brunswick-Greensville-
1217 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-062-064-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>100-509>525-
221630-
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
1217 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
after 3 pm EDT this afternoon into the evening hours. Any
thunderstorms that do develop will produce gusty winds...frequent
lightning...and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

MDZ021>025-221630-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
1217 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Air Quality Alert.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through
this evening. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be
possible, with damaging winds as the primary threat. Frequent
lightning is also expected with thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
158 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

MDZ021-211845-
Dorchester-
158 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
DORCHESTER COUNTY...

At 157 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Deale to near Prince Frederick to
near Waldorf. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Hurlock, Secretary, University Of Maryland Center For
Environmental Studies, East New Market, Church Creek, Madison,
Andrews, Hudson, Lloyds, Taylors Island, Woolford, Bucktown and
Linkwood.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3864 7585 3834 7606 3827 7615 3831 7613
      3832 7620 3833 7620 3832 7616 3839 7623
      3831 7624 3833 7624 3832 7625 3831 7625
      3849 7634 3848 7633 3853 7620 3854 7628
      3863 7629 3857 7603 3867 7595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 295DEG 29KT 3874 7652 3856 7664 3855 7684

05