Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1122 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Elsa tracks well northeast of the area by this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak cold front crosses the region
later this afternoon into this evening. Weak high pressure will
be over the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1115 AM EDT Friday...
Temperatures well into the lower 80s for most locations this
morning. Dew points still rather tropical with most places in
the low-mid 70s. A cold front just west of the mountains will
move east and into this increasingly unstable airmass in the mid
Atlantic. Would expect storms to develop from west to east later
this afternoon into this evening. With a strengthening 500mb
wind field across the north later today, forecast deep shear
values increase to 30-35 kt. With this in mind, could not rule
out a localized severe wind gust later this afternoon.

Overall, no major changes to the forecast. Have kept the chance
Pops for this afternoon into this evening and max temps in the
upper 80s/low 90s.

As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued for the entire
area. Satellite/regional radar mosaic showing TS Elsa off the
DelMarVa coast, with swath/shield of rainfall lifting across
lower MD early this morning. Precipitation will end from SW to
NE over the next few hours there. Otherwise, Flood Watches have
been dropped for VA/NC counties along/west of the Bay. Gusty
winds of 25-35 mph will continue for another few hours over the
eastern shore and coastal E VA.

TS Elsa quickly races off to the northeast through this morning
and will be located Northeast coast by this afternoon. A cold
front is expected to track across the region later this
afternoon into the tonight. This will be the focus for scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity as we head into this afternoon.
Plenty of instability this afternoon (especially along/east of
I-95) with MLCAPE values forecasted to range from 1500 to 2500
J/kg. The limiting factor however will be 0-6km bulk shear
values only in the 10-20 knot range. Would not be surprised to
see a strong wind gust or two this afternoon/evening, especially
across the NE (where SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe
weather), but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Any shower/storm activity is expected to diminish and come to
an end shortly after sunset.

Highs today generally around 90 (upper 80s at the coast/Eastern
Shore). Muggy with dewpoints staying in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Slightly cooler and "drier" air (by July standards) filters
into the region tonight into tomorrow in the wake of the front.
Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s NW to the lower
70s closer to the coast and southeast. Dry tonight with partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies.

Weak high pressure builds over the area Saturday leading to
mainly dry conditions, though a stray shower or storm cannot be
ruled out (especially NE NC) during the afternoon/evening hours.
Highs on Sat will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows Sat
night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A warm frontal lifts through the region Saturday night and will
linger near or just north of the far northern counties during
the day Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday afternoon/evening due to the warm/humid airmass
and the lingering frontal boundary. Highs on Sun in the mid 80s
to around 90. Drying out Sunday night with lows in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

Medium range period will be dominated by more typical summertime
conditions, including some diurnally-driven thunderstorms
each afternoon through early next week. High temps average in
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over the weekend into early next week.

An upper low will close off over the Mid Miss Valley Monday
into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a Bermuda high lingers offshore,
allowing for seasonally warm air and dewpoints in the lower to
mid 70s. In between, Iso/widely sct showers and storms are
expected along weak piedmont trough. PoPs gradually diminish
for the second half of next week, as offshore heat ridge
retrogrades back westward toward the I-95 corridor Wed- Thu.
This will increase temps into the low to mid 90s for the middle
of next week (lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s), while rain
chances drop to slight chc at best.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Improving conditions this morning as Elsa continues to pull
away from the local area. A cold front approaches from the NW
late this afternoon, bringing the potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR conditions are possible in
any heavier showers or storms. Skies clear tonight into Saturday
morning

OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR conditions through the weekend. LCL VIS
restrictions in isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued as Elsa has
pushed off the Delmarva coast. W to SW winds still average
15-25kt with gusts to 30kt across most of the marine area, with
somewhat higher winds and gusts to 35-40kt over the northern
coastal waters. SCAs are in effect through 7-10am and the Gales
end at 7-10am (SCAs will likely be needed into the aftn for the
northern coastal waters where seas will remain at or above 5 ft
even as the winds drop off to around 15kt by late this morning).

Otherwise, all zones are expected to be sub-SCA by late this
aftn into tonight as the pressure gradient becomes rather weak.
A cold front will cross the area overnight/early Sat morning
before washing out Sat aftn. This will shift the winds to a
northerly direction on Saturday (briefly 10-15kt early Saturday
morning), with onshore flow by Sat evening. A typical summer
pattern follows early next week w/ SSW winds shifting to S or
SSE diurnally in the late aftn/evening averaging 10-15kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

A Flood Warning has been issued for Lawrenceville and a few
others may be needed for later today due to the heavy rain over
the past 12 hrs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Tropical Storm Elsa has pushed off the Delmarva coast.
Lingering low-end tidal flooding continues across the east side
of the Ches Bay (due to strong W/SW winds for a few more hrs).
Water levels remain elevated into the Currituck Sound per local
gauges and this may take several more hrs to drop so have
extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through 10 am for Currituck
NC and Va Beach for sound-side flooding.

A moderate risk rip will continue today for the southern
beaches given an offshore wind and diminishing seas. For the
northern beaches, the rip risk will be high given that seas are
still 5-7ft nearshore and will not drop off to less than 4 ft
until later this aftn, along with some lingering swell energy
as Elsa lifts farther NE of the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/MRD
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...MAM/RMM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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