Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly cross the area from now through
this afternoon. Also, an upper trough will linger over the Mid
Atlantic region from through Wednesday. High pressure builds
across the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early morning wx analysis shows a cold front now pushing through
central portions of the FA, with weak low pressure along it in
the vicinity of the VA Middle Peninsula. An upper trough is
located over ern Canada and the Northeast CONUS. Still seeing
isolated to scattered convection mainly in areas immediately
behind the front (generally from RIC-XSA-SBY). Expect this
isolated to scattered convection to continue (mainly across
central/ern VA with mainly dry wx in srn VA and interior NE NC) through
6-8 AM before pcpn coverage diminishes during the remainder of
the morning. This activity is likely elevated and should remain
sub-severe (small hail possible in the strongest storms). All
pcpn should clear the area by late morning as the cold front
slows down as it approaches NE NC. While (slightly) drier air is
expected to filter into most of the area, am expecting tstms to
re-develop across NE NC (along the nearly stalled front) this
aftn before pushing SE of the area this evening. Will maintain
chc PoPs across extreme SE portions of the FA to account for
this. Highs generally in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Cooler/mainly dry tonight (although a stray shower cannot be ruled
out). Lows generally in the 60s (upper 50s possible NW). The upper
trough amplifies across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast CONUS on
Wednesday while a shortwave rotating around the base of the trough
crosses the area. At the surface, a secondary cold front moves
through the FA. As such, will need to maintain chance PoPs on
Wednesday as well for aftn/evening showers and tstms. The highest
PoPs (~30%) are located over NE NC, although an isolated aftn shower
or tstm cannot be ruled out along and east of I-95. Given that the
pcpn coverage will be fairly spotty on Wed, it should still be a
pleasant day for most locations. Highs will mainly be in the low 80s
on Wed.

The upper trough axis finally moves offshore on Thursday as sfc high
pressure builds into the area. It will be noticeably drier (dew
points drop into the mid-upper 40s well inland during the aftn) and
mainly sunny w/ highs around 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure continues to build across the region through Friday.
This will allow for temps to gradually warm through Saturday.
Forecast highs in most places are in the low-mid 80s on Thu, mid-
upper 80s on Friday, and low to locally mid 90s by Saturday.
There will be a very dry airmass in west to northwest flow
aloft so unlikely to see any precip through Sat at the earliest.
Another shortwave trough may track from the Upper Great Lakes
to far nrn New England/ern Canada from Sat-Sun. This feature
will drag a cold front toward the region by late next weekend.
This will allow for more summerlike conditions with chances for
aftn/evening showers/storms Sun (and continuing on Monday).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions to start off the period (except for local MVFR/IFR in
tstms INVOF SBY) ahead of a cold front that will drop southeast
across the VA/NC terminals this morning. Expect a BKN SC deck to
develop along/behind this boundary near the coast with some CIGS
potentially lowering into the MVFR range for a few hours between 10-
15z at PHF/ORF. Do not have any mention of pcpn at
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG, but there is a very low (10-20%) chc of showers
(w/ perhaps a rumble of thunder) between 06-12z at these
locations. Winds shift to the north following the FROPA (with
speeds remaining around 10 kts). VFR conditions return on Tue
with SCT aftn CU. Cannot rule out a tstm at ECG during the
aftn.

Outlook... Additional convection is possible along the coast on
Wed aftn (PoPs 15-30%...highest at ECG) due to a lingering
upper trough overhead. VFR/dry on Thu and Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

A cold front continues to approach from the NNW attm and is expected
to cross the the local waters through midday/early this afternoon.
SSW winds aob 15 kt become NNW post cold front. A very brief period
of gusts to 20 kt psbl right behind the front (wind probs say that
chc is aob 10% occurrence)...otw sub- SCA. Conditions remain
sub-SCA through late in the week then the potential for SCAs increase
(late) Fri into Sat in increasing SSW flow ahead of the next system.

Due to avg 2-3 ft breakers and swell period 8-10 seconds will
keep rip risk today as moderate today. Low rip risk anticipated
for Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 745 PM EDT Monday...

Flood warning conts for the issued Chickahominy River near
Providence Forge as the water level continues to rise. See
FLSAKQ for details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Bishops Head MD forecast to reach 3.2 ft MLLW for high tide this
morning (which is minor flooding threshold) but all other sites
to remain sufficiently BLO those thresholds. No statement is
necessary at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MRD
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MRD
LONG TERM...ERI/MRD
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...ALB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
101 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-100-509>525-160515-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
101 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098-099-160515-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
101 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
216 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

VAZ061-062-069-150645-
Goochland-Powhatan-Cumberland-
216 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN GOOCHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN POWHATAN COUNTIES...

At 216 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cumberland,
moving east northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Powhatan, Cumberland, Cartersville, Trenholm, Macon, Ballsville, Rock
Castle, Oak Forest, Three Square, Whiteville, West View, Grays
Siding, Lake Powhatan, Pemberton, Goodwins Store, Hatchers, Trents
Mill, Ashby, Provost and Clinton.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

LAT...LON 3762 7826 3773 7798 3750 7784 3749 7800
      3750 7800 3749 7801 3748 7834 3750 7835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 256DEG 38KT 3753 7827

EI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

VAZ062-069-511-513-150715-
Goochland-Western Chesterfield-Western Hanover-Powhatan-
242 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD...
SOUTHERN GOOCHLAND AND POWHATAN COUNTIES...

At 242 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Macon, or near
Powhatan, moving east northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with
this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Powhatan around 250 AM EDT.
  Goochland around 255 AM EDT.
  Oilville around 300 AM EDT.
  Manakin and Sabot around 305 AM EDT.
  Tuckahoe around 310 AM EDT.
  Bon Air and Wyndham around 315 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Goodwins Store,
Hatchers, Flat Rock, Crozier, Rock Castle, Jefferson, Maidens,
Provost, Three Square and Johnsons Springs.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

LAT...LON 3778 7762 3770 7759 3771 7761 3770 7763
      3765 7765 3762 7765 3758 7762 3756 7765
      3755 7760 3753 7759 3754 7756 3753 7754
      3745 7751 3746 7790 3747 7790 3750 7800
      3747 7802 3747 7805 3746 7806 3764 7808
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 257DEG 36KT 3756 7799

EI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

VAZ062-069-511>513-515>517-150800-
Goochland-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Western King
William-Western Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Powhatan-Eastern Henrico-
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...NORTHERN HENRICO...SOUTHERN HANOVER AND
NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND...

At 310 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Manakin, or
near Tuckahoe, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Tuckahoe and Wyndham around 315 AM EDT.
  University Of Richmond and Bon Air around 320 AM EDT.
  Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University, Downtown Richmond,
  Lakeside and Laurel around 325 AM EDT.
  Virginia Union University, East Highland Park and Glen Allen
  around 330 AM EDT.
  Mechanicsville and Highland Springs around 335 AM EDT.
  Hanover and Studley around 340 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Enfield, Elmont, Etna
Mills, Montrose, Sandston, Epworth, Westwood, Richmond International,
Fair Oaks and Solomons Store.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3767 7781 3778 7742 3779 7739 3778 7740
      3778 7737 3780 7736 3779 7735 3782 7731
      3785 7721 3759 7714 3760 7717 3755 7723
      3751 7720 3747 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 257DEG 36KT 3760 7769

EI