Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
730 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly drift south across the
area this evening into tonight. The front eventually drifts south of
the region on Saturday. High pressure briefly builds into the area
late Saturday into Sunday. Another front approaches from the west
Sunday and crosses the region Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Latest analysis shows a backdoor cold front stalled/slowly creeping
south across the northern forecast area. In the vicinity of the
front, across the Northern Neck, very heavy rainfall persists (2-3"+
per hour rates). Multiple Flash Flood Warnings have been issued this
morning/afternoon as a result of the heavy rainfall over the
Northern Neck. North of the boundary, cool conditions/stratiform
persist with mainly a east to northeast wind. South of the boundary,
some breaks in the clouds have allowed for instability to increase
(MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg). In addition, PWs remain near record high
values for early June (2.0-2.25") and mid level wind fields remain
weak. As a result, showers and storms with very heavy rain will
continue to develop along/south of the front this afternoon and
evening leading to additional flash flooding issues. CAMs continue
to highlight areas along and just south of I-64 as the greatest area
of concern for heavy rain/flooding as we head through the afternoon
into the first half of tonight.

The backdoor front slowly sags south tonight with the heaviest
rain/storms waning by midnight. The front lingers near the VA/NC
border later tonight, leading to continued unsettled conditions into
early Sunday morning. Lows tonight will mainly range from the mid
60s north to the upper 60s to lower 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

The highest precipitation chances shift south during the day
Saturday with generally dry conditions for the northern half of the
forecast area and lingering shower/storm chances across the southern
half of the area. Overcast, dreary, conditions to start the day on
Saturday with some clearing as we head into Saturday afternoon.
Cooler Saturday with highs only in the mid to upper 70s (low 80s
near the Albemarle Sound). Dry conditions Saturday night into the
first half of Sunday as weak high pressure builds across the region.
Lows on Saturday night will range from the low to mid 60s. Another
cold front approaches the region from the west on Sunday afternoon,
with the highest rain chances mainly across far western portions of
the area Sunday afternoon/evening. Models generally have the front
weakening as it approaches and crosses the region Sunday night, thus
do not have much in the way of PoPs with the frontal passage. Warmer
temperatures on Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the upper
70s near the canst to mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Sunday
night generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

A digging upper trough settles in for Monday night through Wednesday
of next week resulting in an unsettled pattern and continued chances
for showers and a few storms Monday night through Wednesday. A front
pushes south Monday night and models agree with precip crossing area
overnight and into Tuesday morning. The front hangs on over NE NC
and southeast VA resulting in slight chance to low chance POPs
through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Overall QPF amounts do not look
high, but some areas of heavy rainfall may be possible over NE NC.
GFS is producing more QPF versus the ECMWF. By Wed evening it looks
like conditions dry out in the east and precip pushes father to the
south and offshore as a stronger front pushed through. Drier for the
latter half of next week.

Temperature start out in the mid 80s Mon and Tue, but with a
stronger cold front pushing through Tuesday evening, high Wed will be
a little lower in the lower 80s. Temps rebound later next week back
to around 90 come Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS will settle across the terminals tonight and
will be slow to improve until at least midday/early afternoon on
Saturday. This in addition to showers and thunderstorms, some
with heavy rain, that will impact PHF/ORF/ECG through midnight.
Light rain will then continue at all terminals, expect SBY,
overnight. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible on Saturday, especially in the afternoon and evening
across SE VA and NE NC.

Outlook: Conditions improve to VFR Saturday night through the
remainder of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 425 PM EDT Friday...

Have started the SCA for the northernmost coastal waters. SCAs
will gradually expand in coverage from N to S tonight with all
northern waters included by Sat morning. SCAs expand by Sat
morning for the lower Ches Bay, mouth of the Bay, Currituck
Sound, and southern coastal waters. SCAs will taper off from N
to S late Sat into Sat night. Will have to monitor the Lower
James for the potential of briefly reaching SCA winds Sat in
future updates.

A weak E/W oriented cold front is draped across the northern
coastal waters and will gradually sink S through the evening.
Meanwhile, a weak surface low will ride along the front, exiting
off the coast later tonight. E winds are generally 10 to 15 kt
this afternoon but will gradually become NE late tonight as the
low moves offshore, increasing to 15 to 20 kt across the
northern coastal waters late. By Sat, winds become 15 to 20 kt
across all coastal waters, the Lower Bay, and Currituck Sound.
Winds gradually subside late Sat afternoon/evening, dropping
below SCA criteria. Low pressure lingers offshore through Mon
with a weak cold front crossing Mon followed by a stronger cold
front Tues which will likely hang up offshore through the
middle of the week.

Seas will be increasing from N-S corresponding to the rise in
ENE winds. Seas are currently 3-5 ft in the northern coastal
waters and 2-3 ft in the southern coastal waters. Expect 4-5 ft
seas to spread over all coastal waters by Sat with 5-6 ft seas
in the southernmost waters possible late in the day. Seas will
gradually subside late Sat into Sun from N to S. Waves 1-2 ft
through this afternoon, increasing to 2-3 ft late tonight into
Sat for the northern and middle Ches Bay and 3-4 ft in the
southern Ches Bay with a brief period of 5 ft waves at the mouth
of the bay Sat afternoon.

All local beaches will have a moderate risk of rip currents
Sat and Sun.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to persistent and even increasing onshore winds through
tonight, tidal departures are expected to slowly rise. Have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Westmoreland,
Northumberland, and Dorchester counties for the next high tide
cycle tonight with minor flooding possible. Have issued a
Coastal Flood Statement for the next high tide cycle tonight for
Somerset and Wicomico counties in Maryland and for Accomack
county in Virginia for the potential of isolated flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ021.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-
     064-075>078-083>086-509>512-517>522.
     Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ060-061-
     065>069-079>082-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ075-077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJB/JDM
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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