Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wakefield, VA

391 
WWUS51 KAKQ 042232
SVSAKQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
632 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

VAC093-095-175-181-183-042245-
/O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-210504T2245Z/
Isle of Wight VA-Southampton VA-Sussex VA-Surry VA-James City VA-
632 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL ISLE OF WIGHT...NORTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON...NORTHEASTERN
SUSSEX...SURRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL JAMES CITY COUNTIES...

At 632 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Claremont to near Wakefield, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

These severe storms will be near...
  Dendron and Scotland around 645 PM EDT.
  Elberon around 650 PM EDT.
  Surry around 655 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Booth
Fork, Carsley, Pons, Chippokes State Park, Spring Grove, Bethel
Church, Ellis Fork, Dory, Poolesville and Gwaltney Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 7707 3710 7709 3716 7704 3720 7691
      3722 7679 3719 7676 3719 7674 3720 7673
      3721 7673 3722 7671 3685 7664 3681 7706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 238DEG 34KT 3719 7698 3693 7700 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Rogers

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A trof of low pressure crosses the area tonight. A cold front
crosses the area late Wednesday. Another area of low pressure
impacts the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

SVR tstm watch thru 00Z. Expect the convection to the west to push
east across the local area btwn 4-8 PM, movivng offshore by midnite.
Will keep chc/low end likely PoPs (west) thru 00Z, then taper off
to chc as the svr threat ends this eve. S/W trof over the region
keep enuf moisture arnd for chc shwrs to continue thru the nite.
Otw, pt to mstly cldy/humid. Lows 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

A dampening s/w crosses the area Wed, as the parent upper low builds
south across the Great Lakes and the sfc low slides from the eastern
Lakes into New England. Sct showers possible with the s/w Wed morn.
Models show a svrl hr 'lull" in the pcpn erly aftrn before anthr
line of convection dvlps along and ahead of the trailing cold front.
Chc to low end likely PoPs Wed aftrn, highest east of I-95 where
strongest instability/best dynamics are expected. SPC conts with its
MRGNL svr risk with the threat being wind gusts and hail with the
actual fropa. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s.

The cold front pushes off the coast Wed night. Lingering PoPs along
the coast early then clrg/turning cooler. Lows in the 40s west, 50-
55 east.

The pick of the week will be Thurs as high pres builds in from the
north. Mstly sunny/less himid. Highs 65-70. Fair/pt cldy Thurs nite
with more clouds late ahead of the next systm. A few shwrs psbl
across NC late. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se beaches.

Fri looks unsettled as anthr s/w trof crosses trhe area. Some model
disagreement as to whether pcpn gets enhanced by an weak area of low
pres along the coast. Chc/low end likely PoPs Fri under mstly cldy
skies. Highs 65-70. That systm pushes east Fri nite with any pcpn
ending in the eve. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

High pres builds into the area Sat then moves offshore Sun. Moisture
increases ahead of a warm front Sun with low chc PoPs across the
north. Highs Sat mid 76s-lwr 70s. Lows Sat nite mid 40s-lwr 50s.
Highs Sun mid 70s-lwr 80s except 70-75 across the ern shore.

Unsettled conditions early next week as a cold front drops south Mon
then trys to return north as a warm front Tue. Chc PoPs for now.
Lows Sun nite mid 50s-lwr 60. Highs Mon mid 70s-lwr 80s. Lows Mon
nite in the 50s. Highs Tue arnd 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions to start the forecast period. Expect a line of
convection to develop across the Blue Ridge over the next few
hrs then push ese across the local area late this aftrn/eve.
Went ahead and added a TEMPO group for thunder. Timing 20Z-23Z
at RIC...21Z-00Z at SBY...22Z-01Z at PHF and 23Z-02Z at ORF. VCTS
at ECG for now given they may not get there until 00Z. Gusty winds
aoa 40 kts psbl with these storms. Convection diminishes overnite
with VFR/MVFR CIGS into Wed morn.

OUTLOOK...
Additional convection Wed into Wed eve ahead of a cold front. Dry
with VFR conditions expected Thurs. Shwrs along with anthr round
of degraded flight conditions Fri as low pressure crosses the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Late this aftn, a trough of low pressure was moving into wcntrl
VA. Winds were mainly S or SW 5-15 kt over the waters with waves
1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Winds will generally be SSW 10-15 kt
tonight into early Wed aftn, in advance of a cold front
approaching from the NW. Winds will then shift to the NW or N
and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt Wed evening into
Wed night, as the cold front crosses the waters. For now, have
issued SCAs for the entire Ches Bay, all the Rivers, and the
Currituck Snd from Wed evening into Thu morning. Seas generally
3-4 ft with waves on the Bay reaching 3-4 ft. Cool high pressure
will build into and over the waters for late Wed night into Thu
aftn. N winds 10-20 kt Thu morning, will diminish to 5-10 kt
while becoming NE or E Thu aftn. A trough of low pressure will
swing across the area during Fri. Winds/waves/seas will be below
SCA criteria Thu aftn through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for May 4:

             Record
Location      High   Year
--------      -----  ----
Richmond       92    1965
Norfolk        92    1892
Salisbury      94    1913
Eliz. City     92    1938

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

MDZ021-023-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-509>522-051930-
Dorchester-Somerset-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-
Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
325 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area late
this afternoon and early this evening. Some of the storms may
produce damaging winds...small hail...and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again late
Wednesday...as a cold front pushes across the area. The primary
threats are damaging wind gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ022-024-025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ077>090-092-093-095>100-
523>525-051930-
Wicomico-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Eastern Currituck-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
325 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area late
this afternoon and early this evening. Some of the storms may
produce damaging winds...small hail...and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again late
Wednesday...as a cold front pushes across the area. The primary
threats are damaging wind gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW SUBLETTS          37.59N 77.77W
05/04/2021                   POWHATAN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HUGUENOT TRAIL.

&&

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
540 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW JETERSVILLE       37.29N 78.11W
05/04/2021                   AMELIA             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
553 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S VILLBORO            38.12N 77.39W
05/04/2021                   CAROLINE           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN WIDESPREAD ACROSS CAROLINE
            COUNTY. FREDERICKSBURG HIGHWAY BLOCKED ALONG
            WITH SEVERAL OTHER ROADS.

&&

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW PORT ROYAL        38.16N 77.20W
05/04/2021                   CAROLINE           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG TIDEWATER TRAIL BLOCKING
            SEVERAL SECTION OF THE HIGHWAY.

&&

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ROSLYN HILLS        37.59N 77.57W
05/04/2021                   HENRICO            VA   PUBLIC

            SIDING DAMAGED ON HOME.

&&

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE WHARFS STORE      36.95N 77.50W
05/04/2021                   DINWIDDIE          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG FLATFOOT RD.

&&

JO