Alert archive / Virginia / Coastal Flood Statements in 2021
Coastal Flood Statement 7, NWS Wakefield, VA
NWS Wakefield, VA issued this coastal flood statement at Feb 2, 2021, 6:08 PM EST for 8 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 13 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2021, 6:08 PM EST (23:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2021, 7:00 AM EST
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Wakefield, VA
Counties City of Poquoson, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 560 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 134 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
631
WHUS41 KAKQ 022308
CFWAKQ
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
VAZ075-077-078-084>086-523-030715-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210202T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0007.210202T2308Z-210203T1200Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-York-
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Nuisance tidal flooding of up to a half foot possible
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Westmoreland, York, Mathews, Lancaster, Gloucester,
Middlesex and Northumberland Counties.
* WHEN...Into early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/07 PM 3.2 1.3 1.6 1 NONE
03/07 AM 2.5 0.6 0.8 1 NONE
03/08 PM 2.2 0.3 0.7 1 NONE
04/08 AM 2.4 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
04/08 PM 2.3 0.4 0.9 1 NONE
05/09 AM 2.8 0.9 1.1 1 NONE
LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/04 PM 2.7 1.2 1.7 1 NONE
03/05 AM 2.3 0.8 1.2 1 NONE
03/06 PM 1.9 0.4 0.9 1 NONE
04/06 AM 1.9 0.4 0.8 1 NONE
04/06 PM 1.9 0.4 1.0 1 NONE
05/07 AM 2.2 0.7 1.1 1 NONE
WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 2.8 1.4 1.9 3 NONE
03/02 AM 2.5 1.1 1.5 3 NONE
03/02 PM 1.9 0.5 1.1 3 NONE
04/04 AM 2.0 0.6 0.9 2 NONE
04/03 PM 1.6 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/05 AM 2.0 0.6 0.9 2-3 NONE
WARE RIVER AT SCHLEY VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 3.4 0.7 0.7 3 NONE
03/01 PM 2.8 0.1 0.5 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.1 0.4 0.4 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.6 -0.1 0.4 1 NONE
05/03 AM 2.9 0.2 0.3 1-2 NONE
YORKTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.4 FT, MAJOR 2.9 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 3.8 1.2 1.7 2 NONE
03/01 PM 3.3 0.7 1.4 2 NONE
04/02 AM 3.2 0.6 1.1 1 NONE
04/02 PM 2.8 0.2 1.1 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.1 0.5 1.0 1 NONE
&&
$$
NCZ102-030700-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T0700Z/
Eastern Currituck-
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Eastern Currituck County.
* WHEN...Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
COROLLA NC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.5 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/11 PM 5.7 2.0 2.3 5 MINOR
03/11 AM 4.8 1.1 1.7 5 NONE
04/12 AM 5.1 1.4 1.6 4-5 NONE
04/12 PM 4.1 0.4 1.2 3-4 NONE
05/01 AM 4.4 0.7 0.9 3 NONE
05/01 PM 3.2 -0.5 0.5 3 NONE
&&
$$
VAZ099-100-030715-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Northampton and Accomack Counties.
* WHEN...A few hours on either side of high tide tonight.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 3.3 1.3 1.8 4-5 MINOR
03/02 AM 3.5 1.5 1.6 5 MODERATE
03/02 PM 2.8 0.8 1.2 4-5 NONE
04/03 AM 2.7 0.7 0.8 3-4 NONE
04/03 PM 2.2 0.2 0.7 1-2 NONE
05/04 AM 2.6 0.6 0.7 2-3 NONE
CHINCOTEAGUE INLET VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.2 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 3.7 0.9 1.2 1 NONE
03/12 PM 3.4 0.6 1.0 1 NONE
04/01 AM 3.3 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
04/01 PM 2.9 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 3.2 0.4 0.6 1 NONE
SAXIS VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 4.3 2.8 2.0 4 NONE
03/04 AM 3.8 2.3 1.5 3-4 NONE
03/04 PM 3.0 1.5 0.9 3-4 NONE
04/05 AM 3.1 1.6 0.8 3 NONE
04/05 PM 2.7 1.2 0.8 1 NONE
05/06 AM 3.3 1.8 1.0 3 NONE
WACHAPREAGUE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.5 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 3.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 5.9 1.4 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 5.0 0.5 1.1 1 NONE
04/01 AM 4.9 0.4 0.7 1 NONE
04/02 PM 4.3 -0.2 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 5.0 0.5 0.8 1 NONE
OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 6.4 1.8 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 5.4 0.8 1.0 1 NONE
04/01 AM 5.2 0.6 0.5 1 NONE
04/02 PM 4.7 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 5.4 0.8 0.7 1 NONE
KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 4.3 1.3 1.7 5 NONE
03/01 PM 3.6 0.6 1.2 4 NONE
04/01 AM 3.5 0.5 0.9 3-4 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 -0.1 0.7 1-2 NONE
05/02 AM 3.3 0.3 0.6 2-3 NONE
&&
$$
VAZ093-095>098-524-525-030715-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Nuisance tidal flooding of up to a half foot possible
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Newport News, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight and
Norfolk/Portsmouth Counties, and Suffolk, Chesapeake and
Virginia Beach.
* WHEN...A few hours on either side of high tide tonight.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
JAMES RIVER AT SCOTLAND/JAMESTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.0 FT, MODERATE 4.5 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 3.5 1.3 1.7 1 NONE
03/04 AM 3.3 1.1 1.4 1 NONE
03/04 PM 2.9 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/05 AM 3.2 1.0 1.2 1 NONE
04/05 PM 2.7 0.5 1.1 1 NONE
05/06 AM 3.0 0.8 1.0 1 NONE
SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.4 1.6 1.8 3 NONE
03/01 PM 3.5 0.7 1.2 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.5 0.7 0.9 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 0.1 0.8 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.2 0.4 0.6 2 NONE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.1 FT, MODERATE 2.6 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 4.6 1.7 1.9 5 NONE
03/12 PM 3.7 0.8 1.3 4 NONE
04/01 AM 3.7 0.8 1.0 3-4 NONE
04/01 PM 3.2 0.3 0.9 1-2 NONE
05/02 AM 3.4 0.5 0.7 2-3 NONE
MONEY POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.8 1.6 1.9 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.9 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.9 0.7 1.0 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.4 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.6 0.4 0.7 1 NONE
ELIZABETH RIVER AT MIDTOWN TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.7 1.7 1.8 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.8 0.8 1.3 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.9 0.9 1.0 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.2 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.5 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
WESTERN BRANCH OF THE ELIZABETH RIVER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.6 1.6 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.7 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.8 0.8 0.9 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.2 0.2 0.8 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.5 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
FORT MONROE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.0 1.2 1.4 3 NONE
03/01 PM 3.5 0.7 1.2 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.5 0.7 0.9 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.1 0.3 0.5 2 NONE
&&
$$
MDZ023-030015-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Somerset-
608 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Nuisance tidal flooding of up to a half foot possible
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Somerset County.
* WHEN...A few hours on either side of high tide this evening.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/05 PM 3.0 0.9 1.5 4 NONE
03/05 AM 2.7 0.6 1.1 3-4 NONE
03/06 PM 2.2 0.1 0.8 3 NONE
04/06 AM 2.3 0.2 0.7 2-3 NONE
04/06 PM 2.1 0.0 0.9 1 NONE
05/07 AM 2.8 0.7 1.2 3 NONE
CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/04 PM 3.5 1.3 1.4 4 MINOR
03/04 AM 3.0 0.8 1.0 4 NONE
03/05 PM 2.5 0.3 0.6 4 NONE
04/06 AM 2.5 0.3 0.4 3 NONE
04/05 PM 2.1 -0.1 0.4 1 NONE
05/07 AM 2.6 0.4 0.5 3 NONE
&&
$$2 follow-up statements
110
WHUS41 KAKQ 030016
CFWAKQ
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
MDZ023-030130-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Somerset-
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...Nuisance flooding has ended...
&&
$$
VAZ099-100-030830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Northampton and Accomack Counties.
* WHEN...A few hours on either side of high tide tonight.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 3.3 1.3 1.8 4-5 MINOR
03/02 AM 3.5 1.5 1.6 5 MODERATE
03/02 PM 2.8 0.8 1.2 4-5 NONE
04/03 AM 2.7 0.7 0.8 3-4 NONE
04/03 PM 2.2 0.2 0.7 1-2 NONE
05/04 AM 2.6 0.6 0.7 2-3 NONE
CHINCOTEAGUE INLET VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.2 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 3.7 0.9 1.2 1 NONE
03/12 PM 3.4 0.6 1.0 1 NONE
04/01 AM 3.3 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
04/01 PM 2.9 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 3.2 0.4 0.6 1 NONE
SAXIS VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 4.3 2.8 2.0 4 NONE
03/04 AM 3.8 2.3 1.5 3-4 NONE
03/04 PM 3.0 1.5 0.9 3-4 NONE
04/05 AM 3.1 1.6 0.8 3 NONE
04/05 PM 2.7 1.2 0.8 1 NONE
05/06 AM 3.3 1.8 1.0 3 NONE
WACHAPREAGUE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.5 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 3.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 5.9 1.4 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 5.0 0.5 1.1 1 NONE
04/01 AM 4.9 0.4 0.7 1 NONE
04/02 PM 4.3 -0.2 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 5.0 0.5 0.8 1 NONE
OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 6.4 1.8 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 5.4 0.8 1.0 1 NONE
04/01 AM 5.2 0.6 0.5 1 NONE
04/02 PM 4.7 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/02 AM 5.4 0.8 0.7 1 NONE
KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 4.3 1.3 1.7 5 NONE
03/01 PM 3.6 0.6 1.2 4 NONE
04/01 AM 3.5 0.5 0.9 3-4 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 -0.1 0.7 1-2 NONE
05/02 AM 3.3 0.3 0.6 2-3 NONE
&&
$$
NCZ102-030700-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T0700Z/
Eastern Currituck-
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Eastern Currituck County.
* WHEN...Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
COROLLA NC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.5 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/11 PM 5.7 2.0 2.3 5 MINOR
03/11 AM 4.8 1.1 1.7 5 NONE
04/12 AM 5.1 1.4 1.6 4-5 NONE
04/12 PM 4.1 0.4 1.2 3-4 NONE
05/01 AM 4.4 0.7 0.9 3 NONE
05/01 PM 3.2 -0.5 0.5 3 NONE
&&
$$
VAZ093-095>098-524-525-030830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Nuisance tidal flooding of up to a half foot possible
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Newport News, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight and
Norfolk/Portsmouth Counties, and Suffolk, Chesapeake and
Virginia Beach.
* WHEN...A few hours on either side of high tide tonight.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
JAMES RIVER AT SCOTLAND/JAMESTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.0 FT, MODERATE 4.5 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 3.5 1.3 1.7 1 NONE
03/04 AM 3.3 1.1 1.4 1 NONE
03/04 PM 2.9 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/05 AM 3.2 1.0 1.2 1 NONE
04/05 PM 2.7 0.5 1.1 1 NONE
05/06 AM 3.0 0.8 1.0 1 NONE
SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.4 1.6 1.8 3 NONE
03/01 PM 3.5 0.7 1.2 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.5 0.7 0.9 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 0.1 0.8 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.2 0.4 0.6 2 NONE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.1 FT, MODERATE 2.6 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/12 AM 4.6 1.7 1.9 5 NONE
03/12 PM 3.7 0.8 1.3 4 NONE
04/01 AM 3.7 0.8 1.0 3-4 NONE
04/01 PM 3.2 0.3 0.9 1-2 NONE
05/02 AM 3.4 0.5 0.7 2-3 NONE
MONEY POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.8 1.6 1.9 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.9 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.9 0.7 1.0 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.4 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.6 0.4 0.7 1 NONE
ELIZABETH RIVER AT MIDTOWN TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.7 1.7 1.8 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.8 0.8 1.3 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.9 0.9 1.0 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.2 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.5 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
WESTERN BRANCH OF THE ELIZABETH RIVER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.6 1.6 1.7 1 NONE
03/01 PM 3.7 0.7 1.2 1 NONE
04/02 AM 3.8 0.8 0.9 1 NONE
04/02 PM 3.2 0.2 0.8 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.5 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
FORT MONROE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 4.0 1.2 1.4 3 NONE
03/01 PM 3.5 0.7 1.2 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.5 0.7 0.9 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.9 0.1 0.7 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.1 0.3 0.5 2 NONE
&&
$$
VAZ075-077-078-084>086-523-030830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0007.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-York-
716 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Nuisance tidal flooding of up to a half foot possible
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Westmoreland, York, Mathews, Lancaster, Gloucester,
Middlesex and Northumberland Counties.
* WHEN...Into early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/07 PM 3.2 1.3 1.6 1 NONE
03/07 AM 2.5 0.6 0.8 1 NONE
03/08 PM 2.2 0.3 0.7 1 NONE
04/08 AM 2.4 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
04/08 PM 2.3 0.4 0.9 1 NONE
05/09 AM 2.8 0.9 1.1 1 NONE
LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/04 PM 2.7 1.2 1.7 1 NONE
03/05 AM 2.3 0.8 1.2 1 NONE
03/06 PM 1.9 0.4 0.9 1 NONE
04/06 AM 1.9 0.4 0.8 1 NONE
04/06 PM 1.9 0.4 1.0 1 NONE
05/07 AM 2.2 0.7 1.1 1 NONE
WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
02/03 PM 2.8 1.4 1.9 3 NONE
03/02 AM 2.5 1.1 1.5 3 NONE
03/02 PM 1.9 0.5 1.1 3 NONE
04/04 AM 2.0 0.6 0.9 2 NONE
04/03 PM 1.6 0.2 0.9 1 NONE
05/05 AM 2.0 0.6 0.9 2-3 NONE
WARE RIVER AT SCHLEY VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 3.4 0.7 0.7 3 NONE
03/01 PM 2.8 0.1 0.5 3 NONE
04/02 AM 3.1 0.4 0.4 2 NONE
04/02 PM 2.6 -0.1 0.4 1 NONE
05/03 AM 2.9 0.2 0.3 1-2 NONE
YORKTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.4 FT, MAJOR 2.9 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
03/01 AM 3.8 1.2 1.7 2 NONE
03/01 PM 3.3 0.7 1.4 2 NONE
04/02 AM 3.2 0.6 1.1 1 NONE
04/02 PM 2.8 0.2 1.1 1 NONE
05/03 AM 3.1 0.5 1.0 1 NONE
&&
$$335 WHUS41 KAKQ 031146 CFWAKQ Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Wakefield VA 646 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 VAZ099-100-031300- /O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/ Accomack-Northampton- 646 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... $$ VAZ093-095>098-524-525-031300- /O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/ Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Virginia Beach-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 646 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 ...Nuisance flooding has ended... $$ VAZ075-077-078-084>086-523-031300- /O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.S.0007.000000T0000Z-210203T1200Z/ Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-York- 646 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 ...Nuisance flooding has ended.. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Feb 2, 4:32 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 4:32 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
432 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly lift northeast along the New England
coast tonight, then push farther offshore Wednesday. High
pressure then builds into the area through Thursday. A cold
front crosses the area late Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EST Tuesday...
Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low lingering off the NJ
coast this afternoon allowing for wrap around moisture in NW flow to
bring snow showers into the region. The low will gradually move NE
out to sea, diminishing chances for snow over the FA.
Snow showers have broken up inland and begun to consolidate near the
coast/over the the Ches Bay. Visibilities could be diminished in
areas of heavier snow. However, surface temps are in the mid 30s
over SE VA (including the Hampton Roads) and therefore do not expect
accumulation on roadways. Expect the snow showers to gradually shift
east through the remainder of the afternoon, eventually reaching the
Eastern Shore late this afternoon/early this evening. Given the
orientation of the snow band, expect some enhancement of moisture
fetch from the Ches Bay which could enhance available moisture and
subsequent snowfall for the Va portion of the Eastern Shore. This
region (Accomack/Northampton) still has the best shot of seeing
accumulating snow with a wet-bulb around freezing. Total snow
accumulation of up to 1 inch over the Eastern Shore is expected
(higher totals possible if the band stalls over a particular
location). Snow showers should taper off tonight before a final
round of wrap around moisture allows for a chance of more snow
showers to develop in the piedmont late tonight/early tomorrow
morning according to hi-res CAMs. Any additional snow showers in
the morning would be more of a nuisance than anything else with
<0.5" expected.
Otherwise, the SW piedmont has broken out of the clouds, allowing
temps to rise into the lower 40s. NW winds will remain gusty 20-30
MPH into the evening before diminishing to 15-25 MPH gusts overnight
(highest gusts near the coast). Clouds in the eastern half of the
CWA will keep temps elevated overnight. Lows tonight range from the
mid 20s W to the upper 20s to around 30F E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Tuesday...
High pressure moves in from the W Wednesday, becoming centered over
the FA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday in the
mid to upper 40s inland, low to mid 40s near the coast, and mid to
upper 30s over the Eastern Shore (due to cloud cover and any
remaining snowpack). With high pressure overhead Wednesday night,
efficient radiational cooling with clear skies will allow temps to
drop into the upper teens in the piedmont and low to mid 20s near
the coast. Thursday will be warmer with highs ranging from around
50F over central and southern VA to the the low to mid 40s over the
Eastern Shore.
Cloud cover increases Thursday night ahead of the next approaching
system (low pressure moving into the Great Lakes with a trailing
cold front moving into the FA). Therefore, lows Thursday night will
be warmer, generally in the mid 30s (low 30s over the Eastern
Shore). Highs Friday in the low to mid 50s. PoPs increase from W to
E Thursday night into Friday (60-75% PoPs across the FA) with the
best chance of rain Friday morning into midday before precip moves
offshore. Expect generally light precip around 0.25 inches. A cold
front moves through Friday night with lows in the mid 20s NW and low
30s SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
The extended forecast is perhaps of slightly higher confidence than
yesterday, but still overall a lower than normal confidence forecast
as there are still significant disagreements in the evolution of a
low pressure system off the southeast/Mid Atlantic coast for Sunday.
Models are in fairly good agreement that a cold front will move
through the area late Friday into Friday night. However, it will
stall south of the region as the upper wave moves quickly northeast.
Meanwhile, a southern stream wave will move out of the southern
plains, which will lead to some type of low pressure along the
front, which will move northeast. The disagreement occurs on
if/when phasing between the northern and southern streams occur. The
GFS really does not have much phasing at all, leading to a low track
well offshore. Meanwhile, the Canadian and especially the ECMWF show
some phasing with a low track closer to the coast. The ensemble
solutions are not much help with confidence of the low track either
with most of the GEFS members staying well offshore and the ECMWF
members suggesting a closer to the coast track.
All of this proves to be critical in the forecast PoPs as well as
any precip type issues. Obviously the further offshore track would
keep any PoPs confined to near the coast while a closer to the
coastline track would spread heavier precip well inland. The closer
to the coast track is also tricky in that it would allow for the
potential for some snow to fall inland as there will likely be
enough cold air in place from the first frontal passage. As such,
will go with chance pops everywhere on Sunday, except likely PoPs
close to the coast. Will keep SE VA and NE NC mainly rain as even
the colder GFS suggests it will be warm enough aloft for mostly
rain. As for the rest of the area, will continue with some chances
for snow especially late Sat night into Sunday morning. Latest
probability of >1" of snow from the EC Ensemble in the 40-70% range
NW of RIC, although the GEFS probabilities are much lower due to the
offshore solutions and ultimately drier airmass over the area.
Have raised temperatures slightly through Sunday and even into the
early part of next week. Despite a strong frontal passage and very
cold high building across the Great Lakes, the worst of the cold air
is now forecast to be north of the area. It will still be well below
normal with lows Sunday night and Monday night in the teens
especially NW of RIC, while highs on Monday will struggle to raise
out of the low-mid 30s NW and upper 30s SE. It will also be breezy
at times so the wind chill will feel like the teens and 20s even
during the day Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Tuesday...
Scattered snow showers will continue through the afternoon and
into the evening, shifting east with time. Snow may briefly
reduce VIS to IFR later this afternoon/evening especially at
ORF/PHF/SBY with any heavier bands but primarily expect MVFR VIS
with most of the snow (3-5 SM VIS). The pcpn moves off the
coast tonight but may linger at SBY through the night. CIGS are
expected to remain MVFR through tonight with the exception of
RIC which may improve to VFR late this afternoon/early this
evening. All terminals except SBY are expected to return to VFR
CIGS Wednesday morning as the system pushes further offshore
(SBY may hold onto MVFR CIGS into the early afternoon). NW winds
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kts will continue into the evening,
subside some tonight (10-15 kt inland and 20 kt gusts near the
coast), and increase again Wednesday.
Outlook...
Becoming mainly dry/VFR Wed-Thu as high pressure builds into the
region. Rain showers possible Fri as a cold front crosses the area.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
Small craft advisory conditions continue across all of the waters.
Strong low pressure just north of the area will slowly move
northeast through tomorrow. This will allow NW winds to remain well
above SCA criteria through tomorrow night. Could also see a few
gusts close to gale force tonight due to additional cold advection,
but do not think the frequency of gusts to 35 kt will be enough to
upgrade to gale warnings. Winds will gradually diminish starting
tomorrow night into Thursday as high pressure builds south of the
area. This should allow winds to diminish but seas of at least 5
feet will remain over the ocean into Thursday. Southerly winds
increase on Saturday before the next cold front, then NW winds
develop behind the front. Low confidence in winds/seas for late in
the weekend into early next week as low pressure develops along the
front and moves northeast.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
Strong NW winds combined with strong flood tides at the entrance of
the bay have allowed for elevated water in much of the lower
Chesapeake bay. In fact, Bayford briefly saw moderate tidal flooding
this afternoon. Expect another round of Nuisance to minor coastal
flooding tonight especially in the lower bay where we will see
departures of 1-2 ft again with the high tide cycle overnight. Water
levels should gradually subside on Wednesday. In addition, another
round of elevated water levels along the coast combined with large
nearshore waves of 6 feet may cause some beach/dune erosion issues
through tonight for the beaches.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634-
638-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MPR/RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 2, 4:14 PM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 414 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-076-079>085-087>090-092-093-096- 097-514-516-518-520-522>524-032115- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg- Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent- Gloucester-Middlesex-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico- Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-Eastern Essex-York- Newport News- 414 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-VAZ077-078-086-095-098-525-032115- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northumberland-Lancaster-Mathews-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach- Hampton/Poquoson- 414 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered snow showers tapering off tonight could result in diminished visibility and/or slick roads. Any water/slush on roadways could turn into black ice overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ099-100-032115- Accomack-Northampton- 414 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered snow showers tapering off tonight could result in diminished visibility and/or slick roads. Any water/slush on roadways could turn into black ice overnight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. Light snow is expected to continue through this evening, with accumulations of around an inch possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521-032115- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex- 414 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Runoff from melting snow could refreeze into black ice tonight. Use caution while driving. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 2, 2:41 PM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
241 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
NCZ102-VAZ095>098-523>525-022115-
Eastern Currituck-Hampton/Poquoson-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Newport
News-Suffolk-York-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
241 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...Light snow will impact Hampton Roads through 400 PM...
At 240 pm, surface observations and radar imagery indicated an area
of light snow across much of Hampton Roads including the Peninsula
and Southside Hampton Roads. Expect this light snow to continue into
the start of the evening rush hour. There could be a dusting of snow
on grassy surfaces, however with temperatures above freezing, roads
are likely to remain just wet. Still, elevated surfaces including
bridges may become a little slippery so use caution if driving this
afternoon.
Locations impacted include...
Virginia Beach, Newport News, Hampton, Langley AFB, Ocean View,
Kempsville, Virginia Wesleyan University, Hampton University, Old
Dominion University, Christopher Newport University, Downtown
Norfolk, Regent University, Patrick Henry Field, Great Bridge, Deep
Creek, Downtown Portsmouth, Churchland, Norfolk State University,
Seaford and Norfolk.
LAT...LON 3655 7587 3656 7593 3656 7590 3672 7594
3657 7596 3668 7646 3692 7639 3705 7650
3724 7652 3723 7639 3710 7628 3697 7633
3697 7641 3692 7638 3698 7630 3685 7606
3691 7609 3694 7600 3692 7598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 178DEG 3KT 3707 7637
MRDSpecial weather statement, Feb 2, 3:09 PM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
VAZ075>078-084>086-090-520-022130-
Mathews-Middlesex-Richmond-Northumberland-Westmoreland-Lancaster-
Eastern King and Queen-Gloucester-James City-
309 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021
...An area of light snow will continue across the Middle Peninsula
and Northern Neck through 430 pm...
At 300 PM EST, light snow was continuing across much of the Middle
Peninsula and Northern Neck. With temperatures just above freezing,
roadways are expected to be mainly wet. However, some grassy
surfaces may see a dusting to a half inch of snow into evening rush
hour. In addition, a elevated surfaces such as bridges may become a
little slippery. So, use caution if driving through this afternoon.
Locations impacted include...
Mathews, Gloucester Courthouse, Kilmarnock, Urbanna, Fair Port,
Deltaville, Gloucester Point, Robley, Callao, Lancaster, White Stone,
Hayes, Saluda, Heathsville, Wicomico Church, Wicomico, Achilles,
Bavon, Lewisetta and Hartfield.
LAT...LON 3789 7624 3781 7628 3787 7643 3778 7629
3762 7628 3765 7645 3767 7647 3775 7651
3764 7657 3756 7630 3731 7628 3738 7638
3727 7638 3725 7650 3737 7667 3807 7657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 178DEG 2KT 3771 7641
MRDSpecial weather statement, Feb 2, 4:18 PM EST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 418 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 VAZ084-086-095-097>100-523>525-022315- Gloucester-Mathews-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Northampton-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Achilles, Glass, Gloucester Point, Maryus, Naxera, Ordinary, Severn, Bavon, New Point, New Point Comfort, Peary, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, Greenbrier, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Chincoteague, Wallops Island, Melfa, Exmore, Cape Charles, Cheapside, Fishermans Island, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke State Park, Plantation, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 418 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 ...Light snow will impact Hampton Roads and the Virginia Eastern Shore through 615 PM... At 415 pm, surface observations and radar imagery indicated an area of light snow across much of Hampton Roads including the Peninsula and Southside Hampton Roads, and portions of the Virginia Eastern Shore. Expect this light snow to continue into early this evening. There could be a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces, however with temperatures near or above freezing, roads are likely to remain just wet. Still, elevated surfaces including bridges may become a little slippery so use caution if driving into this evening. TG
Special weather statement, Feb 2, 4:46 PM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 446 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 MDZ021>025-030100- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, Princess Anne, Snow Hill, and Ocean City 446 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 ...An area of light snow will continue across the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore through 800 pm... At 440 PM EST, light snow was continuing across much of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore. With temperatures just above freezing or near freezing, roadways are expected to be mainly wet. However, some grassy surfaces may see around one half inch of snow into this evening. In addition, elevated surfaces such as bridges may become a little slippery. So, use caution if driving into this evening. TG
The office that day
Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 3:56 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Caroline, Cumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland, Hanover, King William and 2 more | 64 min |
| Feb 2, 5:00 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Amelia, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland, Dinwiddie and 24 more | 60 min |
| Feb 2, 6:04 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Amelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 27 more | 56 min |
| Feb 2, 6:53 AM EST | Coastal Flood Statement | AKQ | Gloucester, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northumberland, Westmoreland and 6 more | 24 hr |
| Feb 2, 6:53 AM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | AKQ | Accomack, Northampton | 24 hr |
| Feb 2, 6:53 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Amelia, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Essex, Goochland and 12 more | 52 min |
| Feb 2, 7:58 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Amelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 34 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 2, 2:41 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | York, City of Chesapeake, City of Norfolk, City of Portsmouth, City of Virginia Beach | 94 min |
| Feb 2, 3:09 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Gloucester, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland | 81 min |
Nearby
Coastal Flood Statements in Virginia, 2021Every coastal flood statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.