Alert archive / Virginia / Coastal Flood Statements in 2021

Coastal Flood Statement 34, NWS Wakefield, VA

October 30, 2021James City County, Surry County, City of Williamsburg, Virginia

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this coastal flood statement at Oct 30, 2021, 6:35 PM EDT for James City County, Surry County, City of Williamsburg, Virginia. It was in force for 15 min.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 30, 2021, 6:35 PM EDT (22:35 UTC)
Expired
Oct 30, 2021, 6:50 PM EDT
In force
15 min
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA

Counties City of Williamsburg, VA, James City County, VA, Surry County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1269 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

142 
WHUS41 KAKQ 302235
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

MDZ024-025-302345-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211030T2300Z/
Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Water level will drop below minor flood stage.

$$

VAZ075-077-078-310500-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211031T0500Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Westmoreland, Lancaster and Northumberland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas will result 
  in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and 
  businesses near the waterfront and shoreline. Water will be 1 
  to 2 feet above ground level in some areas resulting in a 
  sufficient depth to close numerous roads and threaten homes 
  and businesses. Flooding will extend inland from the 
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays resulting in some road 
  closures and flooding of vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/11 PM     4.2        2.3        2.6        1     MODERATE  
 31/12 PM     3.7        1.8        2.1        1      MINOR    
 01/01 AM     3.5        1.6        1.8        1      MINOR    
 01/01 PM     3.0        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/01 AM     3.1        1.2        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/02 PM     3.1        1.2        1.3        1       NONE

LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/10 PM     3.6        2.1        2.2        1     MODERATE  
 31/10 AM     3.4        1.9        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/10 PM     3.2        1.7        1.8        1      MINOR    
 01/11 AM     2.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/12 AM     2.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/12 PM     2.9        1.4        1.3        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/07 PM     3.4        2.0        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/07 AM     2.9        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 31/07 PM     2.8        1.4        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 01/08 AM     2.7        1.3        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 01/09 PM     2.6        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.7        1.3        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

MDZ021>023-310645-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211031T0900Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Somerset and Wicomico Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas will result 
  in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and 
  businesses near the waterfront and shoreline. Water will be 1 
  to 2 feet above ground level in some areas resulting in a 
  sufficient depth to close numerous roads and threaten homes 
  and businesses. Flooding will extend inland from the 
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays resulting in some road 
  closures and flooding of vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/09 PM     4.0        1.9        2.1       1-2    MODERATE  
 31/10 AM     3.8        1.7        1.9        1     MODERATE  
 31/11 PM     3.6        1.5        1.6        2      MINOR    
 01/11 AM     3.4        1.3        1.4        2      MINOR    
 02/12 AM     3.3        1.2        1.2        1      MINOR    
 02/12 PM     3.4        1.3        1.2        1      MINOR

CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/12 AM     4.0        2.0        2.1        1     MODERATE  
 31/01 PM     3.5        1.5        1.7        1      MINOR    
 01/02 AM     3.5        1.5        1.5        1      MINOR    
 01/02 PM     3.3        1.3        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 02/02 AM     3.2        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/03 PM     3.4        1.4        1.3        1       NONE

CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/09 PM     3.9        1.7        1.9        2      MINOR    
 31/09 AM     3.5        1.3        1.9       1-2     MINOR    
 31/10 PM     3.4        1.2        1.4        2       NONE    
 01/10 AM     3.1        0.9        1.3        2       NONE    
 01/11 PM     3.3        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/11 AM     3.2        1.0        1.2        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ084>086-310200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0200Z/
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Mathews, Gloucester and Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low 
  threat of property damage. Expect around one foot of water 
  above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads 
  and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns 
  near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

WARE RIVER AT SCHLEY VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.3        1.6        1.7        1       NONE    
 31/06 AM     3.9        1.2        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 31/06 PM     4.0        1.3        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 AM     4.0        1.3        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     4.1        1.4        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     4.2        1.5        1.2        1       NONE

YORKTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.4 FT, MAJOR 2.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.3        1.7        1.9        1       NONE    
 31/06 AM     4.1        1.5        1.8        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     3.7        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 AM     3.8        1.2        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     3.7        1.1        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/08 AM     4.0        1.4        1.2        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/07 PM     3.4        2.0        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/07 AM     2.9        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 31/07 PM     2.8        1.4        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 01/08 AM     2.7        1.3        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 01/09 PM     2.6        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.7        1.3        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ099-100-310500-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0500Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Northampton and Accomack Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low 
  threat of property damage. Expect around one foot of water 
  above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads 
  and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns 
  near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/06 PM     3.5        1.5        1.9        2     MODERATE  
 31/07 AM     3.3        1.3        1.7       2-3     MINOR    
 31/07 PM     3.0        1.0        1.4        2      MINOR    
 01/07 AM     2.9        0.9        1.2        2       NONE    
 01/08 PM     2.7        0.7        1.0       1-2      NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.9        0.9        1.0        1       NONE

CHINCOTEAGUE INLET VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.2 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     3.9        1.1        1.3        2       NONE    
 31/04 AM     3.7        0.9        1.4        1       NONE    
 31/05 PM     4.1        1.3        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/05 AM     3.9        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/06 PM     4.2        1.4        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/06 AM     4.1        1.3        1.2        1       NONE

SAXIS VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/08 PM     4.5        2.0        2.1        1      MINOR    
 31/08 AM     4.6        2.1        2.4       1-2     MINOR    
 31/09 PM     4.3        1.8        1.9        2       NONE    
 01/10 AM     4.0        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 01/10 PM     3.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/10 AM     4.0        1.5        1.3        1       NONE

WACHAPREAGUE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.5 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 3.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     5.9        1.4        1.7        1       NONE    
 31/05 AM     5.5        1.0        1.6        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     5.3        0.8        1.0        1       NONE    
 01/06 AM     5.2        0.7        0.9        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     5.4        0.9        0.9        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     5.7        1.2        1.0        1       NONE

OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     6.3        1.7        1.3        1       NONE    
 31/05 AM     5.2        0.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     5.8        1.2        0.7        1       NONE    
 01/06 AM     5.5        0.9        0.7        1       NONE    
 01/06 PM     6.2        1.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     6.3        1.7        0.9        1       NONE

KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.5        1.5        1.8        2      MINOR    
 31/05 AM     4.4        1.4        1.8        3       NONE    
 31/06 PM     4.1        1.1        1.3        2       NONE    
 01/06 AM     4.0        1.0        1.2        2       NONE    
 01/06 PM     4.1        1.1        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 02/07 AM     4.2        1.2        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ089-090-310300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0034.211030T2235Z-211031T0300Z/
Surry-James City-
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...One half to one foot of inundation above ground level in
  low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...James City and Surry Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

JAMES RIVER AT SCOTLAND/JAMESTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.0 FT, MODERATE 4.5 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/08 PM     4.0        1.8        1.9        1      MINOR    
 31/08 AM     3.5        1.3        1.6        1       NONE    
 00/08 PM     3.5        1.3        1.5        1       NONE    
 01/09 AM     3.5        1.3        1.4        1       NONE    
 01/09 PM     3.2        1.0        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/10 AM     3.5        1.3        1.2        1       NONE

&&

$$
1 follow-up statement
698 
WHUS41 KAKQ 302250
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

VAZ089-090-310300-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.CF.S.0034.000000T0000Z-211031T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0300Z/
Surry-James City-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Surry and James City Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

JAMES RIVER AT SCOTLAND/JAMESTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.0 FT, MODERATE 4.5 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/08 PM     4.0        1.8        1.9        1      MINOR    
 31/08 AM     3.5        1.3        1.6        1       NONE    
 00/08 PM     3.5        1.3        1.5        1       NONE    
 01/09 AM     3.5        1.3        1.4        1       NONE    
 01/09 PM     3.2        1.0        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/10 AM     3.5        1.3        1.2        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ075-077-078-310500-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211031T0500Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Westmoreland, Lancaster and Northumberland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas will result 
  in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and 
  businesses near the waterfront and shoreline. Water will be 1 
  to 2 feet above ground level in some areas resulting in a 
  sufficient depth to close numerous roads and threaten homes 
  and businesses. Flooding will extend inland from the 
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays resulting in some road 
  closures and flooding of vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/11 PM     4.2        2.3        2.6        1     MODERATE  
 31/12 PM     3.7        1.8        2.1        1      MINOR    
 01/01 AM     3.5        1.6        1.8        1      MINOR    
 01/01 PM     3.0        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/01 AM     3.1        1.2        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/02 PM     3.1        1.2        1.3        1       NONE

LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/10 PM     3.6        2.1        2.2        1     MODERATE  
 31/10 AM     3.4        1.9        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/10 PM     3.2        1.7        1.8        1      MINOR    
 01/11 AM     2.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/12 AM     2.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/12 PM     2.9        1.4        1.3        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/07 PM     3.4        2.0        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/07 AM     2.9        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 31/07 PM     2.8        1.4        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 01/08 AM     2.7        1.3        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 01/09 PM     2.6        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.7        1.3        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

MDZ021>023-310700-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211031T0900Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Somerset and Wicomico Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas will result 
  in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and 
  businesses near the waterfront and shoreline. Water will be 1 
  to 2 feet above ground level in some areas resulting in a 
  sufficient depth to close numerous roads and threaten homes 
  and businesses. Flooding will extend inland from the 
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays resulting in some road 
  closures and flooding of vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/09 PM     4.0        1.9        2.1       1-2    MODERATE  
 31/10 AM     3.8        1.7        1.9        1     MODERATE  
 31/11 PM     3.6        1.5        1.6        2      MINOR    
 01/11 AM     3.4        1.3        1.4        2      MINOR    
 02/12 AM     3.3        1.2        1.2        1      MINOR    
 02/12 PM     3.4        1.3        1.2        1      MINOR

CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/12 AM     4.0        2.0        2.1        1     MODERATE  
 31/01 PM     3.5        1.5        1.7        1      MINOR    
 01/02 AM     3.5        1.5        1.5        1      MINOR    
 01/02 PM     3.3        1.3        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 02/02 AM     3.2        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/03 PM     3.4        1.4        1.3        1       NONE

CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/09 PM     3.9        1.7        1.9        2      MINOR    
 31/09 AM     3.5        1.3        1.9       1-2     MINOR    
 31/10 PM     3.4        1.2        1.4        2       NONE    
 01/10 AM     3.1        0.9        1.3        2       NONE    
 01/11 PM     3.3        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/11 AM     3.2        1.0        1.2        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ524-525-310300-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0300Z/
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Newport News and Hampton/Poquoson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
  threat of property damage. Expect around one foot of water above
  ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns near the
  waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

FORT MONROE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.4        1.6        1.8       1-2      NONE    
 31/06 AM     3.6        0.8        1.1        2       NONE    
 31/06 PM     3.8        1.0        1.1       1-2      NONE    
 01/06 AM     3.8        1.0        1.1        2       NONE    
 01/07 PM     3.9        1.1        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/08 AM     4.2        1.4        1.2        1       NONE

SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.3        1.5        1.8       1-2      NONE    
 31/05 AM     4.0        1.2        1.6        2       NONE    
 31/06 PM     3.9        1.1        1.3        2       NONE    
 01/07 AM     3.8        1.0        1.1        2       NONE    
 01/07 PM     3.7        0.9        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/08 AM     4.0        1.2        1.0        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ084>086-310200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0200Z/
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Mathews, Gloucester and Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low 
  threat of property damage. Expect around one foot of water 
  above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads 
  and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns 
  near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

WARE RIVER AT SCHLEY VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.3        1.6        1.7        1       NONE    
 31/06 AM     3.9        1.2        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 31/06 PM     4.0        1.3        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 AM     4.0        1.3        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     4.1        1.4        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     4.2        1.5        1.2        1       NONE

YORKTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.4 FT, MAJOR 2.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.3        1.7        1.9        1       NONE    
 31/06 AM     4.1        1.5        1.8        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     3.7        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 AM     3.8        1.2        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     3.7        1.1        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/08 AM     4.0        1.4        1.2        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/07 PM     3.4        2.0        2.0        1      MINOR    
 31/07 AM     2.9        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 31/07 PM     2.8        1.4        1.4       1-2      NONE    
 01/08 AM     2.7        1.3        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 01/09 PM     2.6        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.7        1.3        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ099-100-310500-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-211031T0500Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
650 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Northampton and Accomack Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low 
  threat of property damage. Expect around one foot of water 
  above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads 
  and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns 
  near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/06 PM     3.5        1.5        1.9        2     MODERATE  
 31/07 AM     3.3        1.3        1.7       2-3     MINOR    
 31/07 PM     3.0        1.0        1.4        2      MINOR    
 01/07 AM     2.9        0.9        1.2        2       NONE    
 01/08 PM     2.7        0.7        1.0       1-2      NONE    
 02/09 AM     2.9        0.9        1.0        1       NONE

CHINCOTEAGUE INLET VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.2 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     3.9        1.1        1.3        2       NONE    
 31/04 AM     3.7        0.9        1.4        1       NONE    
 31/05 PM     4.1        1.3        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/05 AM     3.9        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/06 PM     4.2        1.4        1.3        1       NONE    
 02/06 AM     4.1        1.3        1.2        1       NONE

SAXIS VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/08 PM     4.5        2.0        2.1        1      MINOR    
 31/08 AM     4.6        2.1        2.4       1-2     MINOR    
 31/09 PM     4.3        1.8        1.9        2       NONE    
 01/10 AM     4.0        1.5        1.5        2       NONE    
 01/10 PM     3.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 02/10 AM     4.0        1.5        1.3        1       NONE

WACHAPREAGUE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.5 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 3.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     5.9        1.4        1.7        1       NONE    
 31/05 AM     5.5        1.0        1.6        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     5.3        0.8        1.0        1       NONE    
 01/06 AM     5.2        0.7        0.9        1       NONE    
 01/07 PM     5.4        0.9        0.9        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     5.7        1.2        1.0        1       NONE

OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     6.3        1.7        1.3        1       NONE    
 31/05 AM     5.2        0.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 31/06 PM     5.8        1.2        0.7        1       NONE    
 01/06 AM     5.5        0.9        0.7        1       NONE    
 01/06 PM     6.2        1.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 02/07 AM     6.3        1.7        0.9        1       NONE

KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 PM     4.5        1.5        1.8        2      MINOR    
 31/05 AM     4.4        1.4        1.8        3       NONE    
 31/06 PM     4.1        1.1        1.3        2       NONE    
 01/06 AM     4.0        1.0        1.2        2       NONE    
 01/06 PM     4.1        1.1        1.2       1-2      NONE    
 02/07 AM     4.2        1.2        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Oct 30, 3:57 PM EDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 3:57 PM EDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough tracks through the Mid-Atlantic region
tonight then into New England Sunday. High pressure builds back
into the local area Sunday night into Monday. A cold front
approaches from the northwest Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Vertically stacked low pressure remains centered west of the
region over the mountains this afternoon. Mostly cloudy over the
Piedmont and variably cloudy elsewhere this afternoon, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the Piedmont (with
more cloud cover) to the lower/mid 60s elsewhere. A few showers
are possible through late afternoon/early evening, mainly over
the NW Piedmont and Atlantic coast of the MD Eastern Shore.
Primarily partly cloudy tonight, although some additional cloud
cover may stream northeastward along the coast with a subtle
wave of low pressure offshore. Forecast lows tonight range from
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

The upper level trough axis lifts northeast into New England
Sunday. Deep layered WNW flow develops in the wake of the trough
axis, and this will lead to gradual drying. However, there will
still likely be a 2-3hr period SCT-BKN flattened CU during the
afternoon, especially NE. Surface high pressure builds in from
the WNW Sunday night into Monday as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal. Slightly cooler Monday with highs in the mid/upper 60s,
after morning lows in the low/mid 40s inland to the upper
40s/lower 50s toward the coast. Surface high pressure lingers
into Monday night, although high clouds may increase during the
night, especially NW. Forecast lows range from the low/mid 40s
inland to the upper 40s/around 50F at the immediate coast, and
upper 30s are possible NE if the sky remains clear much of the
night. A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday, with
increasing clouds during the day, and a 20- 30% chance of light
showers during the afternoon. Forecast highs range from the
lower/mid 50s N/NW, to the lower/mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

The cold front drops through the area Tuesday night, with much
cooler air filtering in from the NNW. A 20-30% chance of showers
lingers over the area into the evening, with drying overnight.
Forecast lows range from the mid 30s NW, to the mid/upper 40s
SE. Some readings around 32F are possible far NW if drier air
and clearing arrives early enough. Forecast highs range through
the 50s, with low 60s far SE. Deterministic models diverge
substantially in the Thursday through Saturday period. The
30/12z GFS supports a drier/cooler solution with an early
morning frost/freeze potential inland, the 30/12z CMC initially
has a similar cooler/drier solution but has an amplified low
pressure system developing off the coast late in the period.
Meanwhile, the 30/12z is similar to its 00z run depicting an
amplified closed upper low affecting the region, especially
Thursday afternoon/night, Friday, and Friday night. For now,
this forecast follows the blended NBM solution, with 20-40% PoPs
Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Forecast highs
Thursday through Saturday range from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW,
to the upper 50s/around 60F SE, with morning lows in the mid
30s NW, to the lower/mid 40s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Saturday...

Low pressure is centered west of the region as of 18z. There are
some MVFR cigs W of the RIC, and RIC could have some occasional
BKN MVFR cigs ~2500ft through about 21z. Otherwise, generally
VFR with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Partial clearing is
expected for most of the area tonight with a light SW wind. The
upper level trough swings across the area Sunday with SCT-BKN
afternoon CU and a W wind ~10kt with gusts of 15-20kt.

High pressure builds across the region Sunday night into Monday.
A cold front will bring a 20-30% chc of light showers Tuesday
afternoon/evening, with high pressure returning by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows the primary surface low just to the
west of the central Appalachians, with a developing secondary
low pressure center 100-200 miles east of the Delmarva
Peninsula. Winds across the marine area are SW at ~10kt. Seas
are still elevated (5- 7ft N/4-5ft S) and SCAs remain in effect
until 11z/7 AM Sunday for all Atlantic Ocean zones. Waves on the
bay are likely 1-2ft (perhaps near 3ft at the mouth). The
secondary low is progged to rapidly deepen tonight as it tracks
northward toward Cape Cod. This will allow the pressure gradient
to tighten a bit across the local area, resulting in W-SW winds
increasing to 15-20kt offshore and closer to 15kt in the Ches
Bay. Local wind probabilities show a 3-5 hour period of 20-40%
probs for sustained 18kt winds on the east side of the Ches Bay
tonight (mainly from 03-09z), but will not hoist SCAs attm. Seas
will diminish to 4-5ft tonight, and possibly remain in that
range through Sunday. Will not extend the SCAs attm because some
of the guidance has seas diminishing to ~4ft by midday Sun.
Will allow future shifts to extend them if needed. Flow becomes
northwesterly by late Sunday behind a cold front as high
pressure builds eastward from the northern plains. Guidance is
split regarding the strength of the winds behind this boundary
but a modest increase in NW flow will follow in the wake of the
front. A short period of SCA winds are possible Sunday night
into Monday, especially across the mid/upper bay and MD coastal
waters. Much quieter conditions are expected thereafter into the
middle of next week.

Winds will pick up again mid-week(15-19kt sustained, 20-24kt
gusts) in the wake of a cold front that will bring strong CAA.
Waves will build to 2-3ft in the bay and 4-5 ft in the ocean as
the wind increases. Winds may increase again late in the week
into next weekend with the passing of a low pressure system, but
there is still much uncertainty in the track and timing of the
storm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Tidal departures in the mid/upper bay are still running ~2ft
above normal despite moderate to strong ebb tides. Minor to
moderate flooding occurred with this morning's high tide. Tidal
departures in the mid/upper bay will continue to slowly fall
through the remainder of the weekend as the CBOFS is forecasting
ebb tides to remain dominant (despite a SW wind).

Will maintain Coastal Flood Warnings from the VA Northern Neck
(mainly for Lewisetta) to the bayside of the MD Ern Shore
through this evening-tonight to account for minor to locally
moderate flooding expected during the upcoming high tide cycle
(which is the higher of the two astronomical tides). ETSS has
been running 0.5ft or more above observations (likely due to the
strong ebb tides) and will continue to disregard the ETSS in
the tide forecasts for the mid and upper bay. Will continue with
Coastal Flood Advisories from Gloucester to Middlesex Counties
as well as Northampton County, VA to Ocean City, MD through this
evening-early tonight (to account for nuisance-minor flooding).
Water levels are forecast to crest a couple tenths of a foot
below minor flood thresholds this evening from Jamestown to
Hampton Roads, where no coastal flood headlines are currently in
effect.

While tidal anomalies are forecast to continue to gradually
fall during the next couple of days, another round or two of
advisories may be needed for portions of the mid/upper bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ075-077-078.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM/ERI/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ERI
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 10:54 AM EDT, 7 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-076-079>083-087>090-
092-093-095>098-509>525-311500-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-
New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia,
south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ099-100-311500-
Accomack-Northampton-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>023-311500-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-025-311500-
Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ084>086-311500-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ075-077-078-311500-
Westmoreland-Northumberland-Lancaster-
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia and
eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 30, 10:44 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryAKQAccomack, Gloucester, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex and 7 more37 hr

Nearby

Coastal Flood Statements in Virginia, 2021Every coastal flood statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.