Alert archive / Virginia / Coastal Flood Statements in 2021
Coastal Flood Statement 23, NWS Wakefield, VA
NWS Wakefield, VA issued this coastal flood statement at Sep 22, 2021, 6:36 AM EDT for Northumberland County, Westmoreland County, Virginia; Dorchester County, Maryland. It took effect at Sep 22, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 22, 2021, 6:36 AM EDT (10:36 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 22, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Sep 22, 2021, 10:39 AM EDT
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Wakefield, VA
Counties Dorchester County, MD, Northumberland County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -19 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 807 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
205
WHUS41 KAKQ 221036
CFWAKQ
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
VAZ075-077-221845-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0023.210922T1600Z-210922T2300Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-
636 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
* WHERE...Northumberland and Westmoreland Counties.
* WHEN...From noon EDT today through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/05 AM 3.2 1.3 1.3 1 NONE
22/05 PM 3.3 1.4 1.4 1 NONE
23/05 AM 3.4 1.5 1.6 1 NONE
23/06 PM 3.4 1.5 1.5 1 NONE
24/06 AM 2.6 0.7 0.9 1 NONE
24/06 PM 2.5 0.6 0.6 1 NONE
LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/03 AM 2.8 1.3 1.1 1 NONE
22/03 PM 3.0 1.5 1.3 2 MINOR
23/03 AM 3.0 1.5 1.4 2 MINOR
23/04 PM 3.2 1.7 1.5 2 MINOR
24/04 AM 2.7 1.2 1.1 1-2 NONE
24/05 PM 2.7 1.2 1.0 1 NONE
WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/01 AM 2.5 1.1 0.9 2 NONE
22/12 PM 2.5 1.1 0.8 3-4 NONE
23/01 AM 2.6 1.2 1.0 3-4 NONE
23/01 PM 2.7 1.3 1.0 2-3 NONE
24/01 AM 2.4 1.0 0.9 1-2 NONE
24/02 PM 2.6 1.2 0.9 2 NONE
&&
$$
MDZ021-221845-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0023.210922T1600Z-210923T0200Z/
Dorchester-
636 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
* WHERE...Dorchester County.
* WHEN...From noon EDT today through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/03 AM 3.2 1.1 0.8 2 NONE
22/03 PM 3.4 1.3 1.0 2-3 MINOR
23/04 AM 3.6 1.5 1.3 3 MINOR
23/04 PM 3.5 1.4 1.2 1-3 MINOR
24/04 AM 2.7 0.6 0.6 2 NONE
24/04 PM 2.7 0.6 0.5 1-2 NONE
CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/06 AM 3.1 1.1 0.9 1 NONE
22/06 PM 3.4 1.4 1.2 2 NONE
23/06 AM 3.6 1.6 1.5 2 MINOR
23/07 PM 3.5 1.5 1.3 1 MINOR
24/07 AM 2.8 0.8 0.8 1-2 NONE
24/07 PM 2.6 0.6 0.4 1 NONE
&&
$$
MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-221845-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0013.210922T1200Z-210923T0000Z/
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
636 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Large breaking waves and rip currents expected.
* WHERE...In Maryland, Maryland Beaches County. In Virginia,
Northampton and Accomack Counties, and Virginia Beach. In
North Carolina, Eastern Currituck County.
* WHEN...Through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 5 feet will result in rough
surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
&&
$$1 follow-up statement
197
WHUS41 KAKQ 221439
CFWAKQ
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
VAZ075-077-222245-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.CF.S.0023.210922T1600Z-210922T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.Y.0017.210922T1600Z-210923T1300Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Westmoreland and Northumberland Counties, mainly in
flood prone areas near the Tidal Potomac.
* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/05 PM 3.3 1.4 1.4 1 NONE
23/05 AM 3.5 1.6 1.7 1 MINOR
23/06 PM 3.4 1.5 1.5 1 NONE
24/06 AM 2.6 0.7 0.9 1 NONE
24/06 PM 2.5 0.6 0.6 1 NONE
25/07 AM 2.4 0.5 0.7 1 NONE
LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/03 PM 3.0 1.5 1.3 2 MINOR
23/03 AM 3.2 1.7 1.6 2 MINOR
23/04 PM 3.2 1.7 1.5 2 MINOR
24/04 AM 2.7 1.2 1.1 1-2 NONE
24/05 PM 2.7 1.2 1.0 1 NONE
25/04 AM 2.5 1.0 1.0 1 NONE
WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/12 PM 2.5 1.1 0.8 3-4 NONE
23/01 AM 2.7 1.3 1.1 3-4 NONE
23/01 PM 2.7 1.3 1.0 2-3 NONE
24/01 AM 2.5 1.1 1.0 1-2 NONE
24/02 PM 2.6 1.2 0.9 2 NONE
25/02 AM 2.3 0.9 0.8 1 NONE
&&
$$
MDZ021-222245-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.CF.S.0023.210922T1600Z-210923T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.Y.0017.210922T1600Z-210923T1300Z/
Dorchester-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Around one foot of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Dorchester County.
* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is expected in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline resulting in a low
threat of property damage. Expect up to one foot of water
above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads
and low lying property including parking lots, parks and lawns
near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/03 PM 3.4 1.3 1.0 2-3 MINOR
23/04 AM 3.6 1.5 1.3 3 MINOR
23/04 PM 3.5 1.4 1.2 1-3 MINOR
24/04 AM 2.7 0.6 0.6 2 NONE
24/04 PM 2.7 0.6 0.5 1-2 NONE
25/05 AM 2.6 0.5 0.6 1 NONE
CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/06 PM 3.4 1.4 1.2 2 NONE
23/06 AM 3.6 1.6 1.5 2 MINOR
23/07 PM 3.5 1.5 1.3 1 MINOR
24/07 AM 2.8 0.8 0.8 1-2 NONE
24/07 PM 2.6 0.6 0.4 1 NONE
25/07 AM 2.3 0.3 0.4 1 NONE
&&
$$
NCZ102-VAZ098-222245-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0024.210922T1600Z-210923T1800Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-210923T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, large breaking waves and
dangerous rip currents expected. For the Coastal Flood
Statement, up to one foot of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
* WHERE...For the Coastal Flood Statement...in Virginia, the Back
Bay area Virginia Beach along the north side of the Currituck
Sound. In North Carolina, sound side portions of Eastern
Currituck County. For the Beach Hazards Statement...the Atlantic
Beaches of Virginia Beach and Eastern Currituck County.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this
evening. For the, through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Breaking waves of 4
to 5 feet will result in rough surf conditions and a high risk
of rip currents.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.1 FT, MODERATE 2.6 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/10 AM 3.8 0.9 0.4 4 NONE
22/10 PM 3.4 0.5 0.4 4 NONE
23/10 AM 3.4 0.5 0.1 3-4 NONE
23/11 PM 3.1 0.2 0.2 3 NONE
24/11 AM 3.7 0.8 0.4 3-4 NONE
24/11 PM 3.2 0.3 0.5 2-3 NONE
SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/11 AM 3.6 0.8 0.5 3 NONE
22/11 PM 3.4 0.6 0.6 2-3 NONE
23/11 AM 3.4 0.6 0.4 2 NONE
24/12 AM 3.2 0.4 0.5 2 NONE
24/12 PM 3.9 1.1 0.9 2 NONE
25/12 AM 3.3 0.5 0.8 1-2 NONE
COROLLA NC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.5 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/10 AM 4.2 0.5 0.4 5 NONE
22/09 PM 4.0 0.3 0.3 5 NONE
23/10 AM 4.1 0.4 0.1 5 NONE
23/10 PM 3.6 -0.1 0.1 4 NONE
24/10 AM 4.5 0.8 0.6 4 NONE
24/10 PM 3.8 0.1 0.6 4 NONE
&&
$$
MDZ022-023-222245-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0024.210922T1600Z-210923T1300Z/
Wicomico-Somerset-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Wicomico and Somerset Counties.
* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/03 PM 3.4 1.3 1.0 2-3 MINOR
23/04 AM 3.6 1.5 1.3 3 MINOR
23/04 PM 3.5 1.4 1.2 1-3 MINOR
24/04 AM 2.7 0.6 0.6 2 NONE
24/04 PM 2.7 0.6 0.5 1-2 NONE
25/05 AM 2.6 0.5 0.6 1 NONE
CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
22/02 PM 3.1 0.9 1.1 2 NONE
23/02 AM 3.3 1.1 1.4 2 NONE
23/02 PM 3.4 1.2 1.4 2-3 NONE
24/03 AM 2.8 0.6 1.0 2 NONE
24/03 PM 2.7 0.5 0.6 2 NONE
25/03 AM 2.3 0.1 0.6 1 NONE
&&
$$
NCZ015>017-030>032-222245-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0024.210922T1600Z-210923T1800Z/
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected
in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
* WHERE...Flood prone areas of Western Currituck, Perquimans,
Pasquotank, Camden, Chowan and Bertie Counties near the
Albemarle Sound.
* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locations near the waterfront and shoreline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
$$
MDZ025-VAZ099-100-222245-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-210923T0000Z/
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents
expected.
* WHERE...The Atlantic Beaches of Maryland. In Virginia, The
Atlantic Beaches of Northampton and Accomack Counties.
* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 5 feet will result in rough
surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
&&
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Sep 22, 4:47 AM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 4:47 AM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
447 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach the area from the west today,
and will cross the region Thursday through Thursday night.
Canadian high pressure builds in from Friday into the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...
Latest analysis continues to show 1030+mb sfc high pressure
centered off the coast of Nova Scotia ridging down the
northeast and DelMarVa coast. While the retreating high is
maintaining somewhat drier air across the eastern shore this
morning, moist SSE llvl flow is advecting in much higher PW
values (1.8-2.1") from the Carolina coastal plain up into the
eastern Piedmont and the central Appalachians to the west. Warm
rain processes are allowing for periods of moderate to locally
heavy rainfall from eastern NC up into the far western portions
of our area. CAMs are in good agreement in nudging this axis of
heavier rainfall N/NE toward the I-95 corridor through the
morning rush. Periods of rain likely through the day over the
western half of the area. Farther east, another day of isolated
to scattered showers ahead of the front today over Hampton Roads
and the lwr eastern shore. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s (warmest E).
As far as the synoptic details go, models have finally trended
toward a consensus, with the GFS trending slower toward the
rest of the available guidance. The upper low currently
dropping from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the mid-
south, will take on a neg tilt with time this evening, as the
associated sfc front slowly swings east from the OH/TN valley
toward the central/southern Appalachians tonight. Highest PoPs
(likely to categorical) will be across the Piedmont and just
west of RIC metro, where PWs quickly ramp up above 2" through
the day, before swinging east overnight. 00z GEFS IVT trajectories
align well with this area/timing. WPC ERO remains in Marginal
for our area, with Slight Risk area just to our west.
Nevertheless, some locally heavy rainfall totals are possible
given the very deep warm cloud depths AOA 13KFT, coincident with
PW values AOA 2".
Previously referenced model consensus takes core of the upper
low cutoff over the OH Valley slowly north over the Great Lakes
by tonight/early Thu. Attendant strong sfc low pressure becomes
occluded over the Great Lakes, with a secondary trough of low
pressure tracking E and crossing the local area during the day
Thu. Areal coverage likely dropping off a bit this evening,
owing to weakening instability with loss of heating and as llvl
moisture begins to pool along the approaching front. Will have
categorical PoPs W and CHC to likely PoPs elsewhere overnight.
Lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
Likely to categorical PoPs finally push east of the I95
corridor Thu morning into the aftn with the front slowly
swinging through the region. SPC Marginal Convective Risk is
over the northern neck and eastern shore for Thu, as the front
pushes to the coast. Instability will be modest, but with height
falls and markedly cooler air rushing in, some gusty winds in
convection can obviously not be ruled out Thu. Will limit
thunder chcs to I-95 and east late Thu morning into Thursday
evening. Rain then tapers off inland Thu aftn. Highs in the l-m
70s inland...75 to 80 along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday...
Showers will be over inland by sunset Thu. However, clouds and
rain showers will linger through Thursday night near the coast,
as the front stalls or slows further as the parent low cuts off
across Ontario. Post-frontal CAA sets in, resulting in lows to
drop to near 50 NW to the lwr-mid 60s along the coast. Event-
total QPF ~1.50-2.00" out in the piedmont, tapering to ~1" RIC
metro...to 0.50" to 1.00" east of I-95 to the coast. Again must
be noted that significantly higher amounts possible, especially
in potentially training heavy showers along the HWY 15 corridor
from FVX-LKU.
After some lingering clouds/showers (mainly E) early on Fri.
Expect gradual clearing through the aftn as the frontal zone
clears the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
The medium range period looks to feature mainly dry conditions
and below average temperatures through Monday, as a rather deep
upper trough pivots across the Canadian Prairies and northern
Great Lakes toward eastern Canada late in the weekend through
the early- middle portion of next week. At the sfc, cool
Canadian high pressure builds in from the NW Fri aftn and night,
then settles across the region Sat. A shortwave is progged to
move through the NE states/northern mid-Atlantic region Sat
night or Sunday ahead of a reinforcing cold front, bringing some
scattered clouds and another shot of cool, dry air...but all
precip looks to stay N of the CWA.
Lows Fri night/Sat morning are expected into the upper 40s over
much of the piedmont, with 50-55F across much of the CWA (upper
50s/lower 60s at the immediate coast in SE VA/NE NC). Highs Sat
through Mon will be mainly in the 70s with lows generally in
the 50s throughout the period. A modest warming trend by Tue
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...
A slow-moving cold front is located over the OH/TN Valleys as
of 06z, with high pressure centered off the coast of Nova Scotia
and ridging to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
wind remains E generally 5-10kt. Still expecting gradually
deteriorating CIGs this morning along and west of RIC, with IFR
possible after 11z. MVFR cigs will likely persist at RIC into
the afternoon. The primary stream of moisture should remain W of
RIC this morning, and then nudge east toward remaining
terminals late this aftn into this evening as the high slides
farther offshore. Showers and perhaps a T-Storm at RIC late this
morning into this afternoon. Short-lived lower CIGS/VSBY in
heavier showers after 18z. A low chance of showers and perhaps
an afternoon tstm at PHF/SBY, but have not put into TAF at this
time with low confidence of coverage farther east, where mainly
VFR conditions prevail this morning and likely much of the
aftn. High clouds tonight giving way to BKN cigs of 6-8kft AGL
this afternoon.
Outlook: Showers slowly progress east tonight into Thu morning.
A SSE wind is expected to increase to 10-15kt later this
morning into the afternoon, with gusts to ~25kt possible toward
the coast. The cold front slowly approaches from the W after
00z/Thu and crosses the region Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon, bringing showers, a chance of embedded tstms, and
sub-VFR flight conditions. Dry/VFR conditions are expected to
return on Friday through Sunday as high pressure builds into the
area.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure remains centered east of New England this morning as a
low pressure system approaches the area from the west. Winds are
southeast 10-15 kt this morning, and will be increasing throughout
the day today. The pressure gradient will tighten between the
approaching cold front and the high pressure offshore. Winds are
anticipated to become SE 15-25 kt later this morning. Seas will
increase from 3-4 ft to 5-7 ft by this afternoon, with waves in the
bay becoming 3-4 ft. SCAs have been issued for all coastal waters.
SCA conditions will prevail until the cold front crosses the region
on Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain SE 15-25 kt with brief
gusts up to 30 kt until late Thursday morning. Seas will likely be 6-
7 and waves in the bay 3-4 ft.
Cold front will cross the region late Thursday. Wind speeds may
diminish slightly to 10-15 kt Thursday evening before increasing to
15-20 kt again with the northerly surge. Rain chances will taper off
late Thursday evening. Waves in the bay will diminish to 1-2 ft
Friday evening with seas becoming 2-4 ft as elevated winds subside
Friday night. High pressure becomes centered southwest of the area
Friday afternoon and through the weekend. Generally, winds will be
northeasterly 5-10 kt Friday afternoon through Saturday. Then more
westerly around 10 kt Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...
Increasing SE winds will cause tidal anomalies to slowly rise
(to around 1-1.5 ft above normal) in the mid/upper Bay. This
combined with high astronomical tides will likely result in
minor tidal flooding in some locations on the Bay side of the
MD Ern Shore and along the tidal Potomac. Tidal flooding could
linger through high tide Thursday aftn/evening, especially if
the FROPA is on the later side (and S-SE winds persist longer
than expected. Water levels should start falling by late Thu
night as northerly winds increase following the FROPA. Not
expecting much in the way of tidal flooding issues in the Lower
Bay (and on the Atlantic coast).
Will go with a high rip risk for today, although the greater
threat will be large breaking waves as opposed to rip currents
(but this warrants a Beach Hazards Statement nevertheless).
Moderate Rip Risk continues for Thursday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>634-
638.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...CP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 22, 5:37 AM EDT, 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 NCZ012-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>082-087-088-509>517-230945- Northampton-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline- Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-Greensville-Sussex-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William- 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers may produce locally heavy downpours today into late tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Gusty winds will be possible late tonight into early Thursday as the front pushes across the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ075>078-083>086-089-090-092-093-095>097- 518>525-230945- Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-New Kent- Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon ahead of a passing strong cold front. Brief locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding of urban and flood prone areas. Additionally, gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ102-VAZ098-230945- Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach- 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon ahead of a passing strong cold front. Brief locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding of urban and flood prone areas. Additionally, gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ025-VAZ099-100-230945- Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton- 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon ahead of a passing strong cold front. Brief locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding of urban and flood prone areas. Additionally, gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>024-230945- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester- 537 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon ahead of a passing strong cold front. Brief locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding of urban and flood prone areas. Additionally, gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 10:39 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Statement | AKQ | Lancaster, City of Virginia Beach | 18 hr |
| Sep 22, 10:39 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | AKQ | Northumberland, Westmoreland, City of Virginia Beach | 35 hr |
| Sep 22, 1:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Brunswick | 43 min |
| Sep 22, 1:59 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Nottoway | 46 min |
| Sep 22, 2:04 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AKQ | Brunswick, Greensville | 116 min |
| Sep 22, 2:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Amelia, Powhatan | 44 min |
| Sep 22, 2:47 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AKQ | Amelia, Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Lunenburg, Nottoway | 118 min |
| Sep 22, 2:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Charles City, New Kent | 25 min |
| Sep 22, 3:12 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Goochland, Louisa | 48 min |
| Sep 22, 3:41 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | AKQ | Essex | 49 min |
Nearby
Coastal Flood Statements in Virginia, 2021Coastal Flood Statements in Maryland, 2021Every coastal flood statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.