Coastal Flood Statement 15, NWS Wakefield, VA

361 
WHUS41 KAKQ 250150
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
950 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MDZ021-250845-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0015.210725T0500Z-210725T0900Z/
Dorchester-
950 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways,
  especially in the area of Bishops Head, MD.

* WHERE...Dorchester County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM through 5 AM Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/02 PM     2.5        0.4        0.4        1       NONE    
 25/03 AM     3.2        1.1        0.6        2       NONE    
 25/03 PM     2.9        0.8        0.8        2       NONE    
 26/04 AM     3.1        1.0        0.6        2       NONE    
 26/04 PM     2.2        0.1        0.1        1       NONE    
 27/04 AM     2.4        0.3        0.0        1       NONE

CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/05 PM     2.0        0.0        0.2        1       NONE    
 25/06 AM     3.1        1.1        0.7        1       NONE    
 25/06 PM     2.4        0.4        0.5       1-2      NONE    
 26/06 AM     2.8        0.8        0.5        1       NONE    
 26/07 PM     1.9       -0.1        0.0        1       NONE    
 27/07 AM     2.1        0.1       -0.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1233 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain offshore this weekend, allowing the
chance for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to increase
later this weekend through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...

The latest wx analysis shows sfc high pressure centered from
off the New England coast to south to the NC coast. Aloft,
ridging is centered over the western Gulf coast into TX with a
rather deep trough moving well off the Canadian Maritimes with
another trough over Hudson Bay. A NW flow continues to prevail
over the local area. Morning showers have diminished leaving
just variably cloudy skies now over the region.

Temperatures as of the noon hour are fairly uniform/mostly in
the lower 80s, but there is a significant dew pt gradient, with
readings in the upper 60s to around 70F across the Piedmont and
I-95 corridor, while areas near the coast are generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. For the remainder of the aftn, made only
minimal changes to the forecast with a dry forecast continuing
in the drier airmass to the E, with a low chance for
showers/tstms moving into the Piedmont zones after about 18-19Z,
potentially spreading a little to the E to include the I-95
corridor to the northern Neck after 19-20Z. Low level lapse
rates and ML/sfc based CAPE will be maximized W of the CWA so
PoPs will only be 20-30%. Only general thunder is expected as
mid level lapse rates will be weak as a bit of a ridge axis
remains in place aloft in between a shortwave off the coast well
to our NE and the next shortwave which will stay off to our NW
until later tonight. highs will mostly be in the mid 80s with
some upper 80s possible.

That shortwave aloft is then forecast to track from the nrn
Great Lakes to the New England coast tonight through the middle
of Sunday morning. While most of the precipitation associated
with this will remain to our north, cannot rule out isolated to
scattered showers over the Lower Ern Shore (and even across much
of ern VA) late tonight (mainly after 2 AM). Not expecting much
in the way of thunder given the lack of instability forecast
late tonight (dew points are only progged to recover into the
mid 60s across the east by late tonight). Lows are forecast to
be in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Developing return flow will turn the heat and humidity up a bit
more for Sunday, as upper ridging continues to build over the
central/srn Plains. Meanwhile, the low-level flow across our
area increases out of the SSW with continued WNW flow aloft.
Isolated aftn/evening tstms are expected to develop in the VA
Piedmont (mainly from Farmville to Tappahannock and NW...with
rain chances spreading E-SE to northern neck and eastern shore
Sun evening). Highs Sun mainly upper 80s to low 90s, with early
morning lows Monday morning in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Confidence is increasing that there will be more organized
convection across the area on Monday. The 00z/24 guidance is in
very good agreement that a shortwave trough aloft tracks across
the area from WNW-ESE on Monday before moving offshore by
Tuesday morning. At the surface, a very weak boundary is progged
to cross most of the area from NW-SE from late Monday-Tuesday
AM. Scattered to numerous tstms are expected to develop by mid
aftn (with the highest pcpn coverage initially in central
portions of the FA). These tstms are progged to gradually move
SE during the evening and overnight. Have increased PoPs to
40-60% in most areas during the 18z Mon-06z Tue timeframe.
Convection will wane/exit the area during the latter part of Mon
night. Not expecting much in the way of organized severe
weather from Monday-Monday night given the relatively weak deep
layer wind field. Forecast highs Mon are around 90F, with lows
in the upper 60s-low 70s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Next week will be characterized by near to slightly above
normal temperatures and seasonally moderate levels of humidity,
as the heat ridge remains anchored in place across the central
CONUS with continued W-NW flow aloft across the local area.
Timing of rain chances in this type of pattern will be dependent
on timing and location of numerous shortwave disturbances in the
flow aloft (and a cold front that potentially approaches by
late next week).

In any event, t-storm chances will be highest on Tue (mainly
south), as the above mentioned weak boundary potentially
stalls/washes out across far srn VA/NE NC. Have 30-50% PoPs for
aftn/evening tstms across srn VA and NE NC, with 10-20% PoPs
across central/nrn zones. Beyond that time frame...will
largely follow NBM and have daily slight chc to low end chc
PoPs (15-30%) from Wed-Fri, again dependent on additional weak
systems pushing across the area with a cold front potentially
approaching the region by late Thu or Fri. Temperatures through
the period will remain fairly seasonable for late July, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s and early morning
lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...

Primarily VFR conditions through the 18z TAF period with the
only potential for flight restrictions being from brief heavier
downpours in isolated/widely scattered showers tstms later this
aftn and overnight (mainly at SBY). Otherwise, SCT-BKN CIGs in
the 5-8kft range tonight.

Outlook...VFR and mainly dry conditions continue Sunday with
only a very minimal chc (20% or less) of afternoon/early evening
showers/tstms Sunday aftn. The chc for afternoon/evening
showers/tstms increases to 30-60% on Monday, as moisture pools
ahead of an approaching frontal system. Then a fairly close to
climo pattern with mainly VFR conditions Tue-Wed as isolated to
widely scattered showers and tstms bring the potential for brief
flight restrictions during the late aftn/evening timeframe.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Light S wind this morn increases to 10-15 kts this aftrn as high
pressure shifts offshore. Pres gradient tightens up a bit tonite
resulting in some southerly channeling up the Ches Bay. Confidence
high enuf to hoist a minimal SCA for the ANZ630 tonite. Kept the srn
part of the bay aob 15 kts for now.

Minimal SCA's will also be possible for portions of the coastal
waters late Sun aftrn/eve for the potential for a few wind gusts up
to 25 knots and 5 ft seas. Confidence not high enough for any
headlines attm.

Winds relax Sun night/Mon morning. A cold front approaches then
washes out across the region Mon aftrn into Tues. Winds remain sub-
SCA through mid week. Seas 3 to 4 ft Mon subside to 2-3 ft thru mid
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Southerly channeling up the Bay may result in some minor flooding
issues at Bishops Head during high tide tonite (07Z).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ630.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-250815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
403 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.