Storm Warning 21, NWS Juneau, AK

521 
FZAK52 PAJK 082345
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091745-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening gale force low lingers in the NE Gulf  through
Thursday night. High pressure builds in the southern Gulf Friday
and into the weekend. Southerly flow changes to strong north to
northwest flow Friday afternoon.   

$$

PKZ041-091745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt, then becoming W late. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. W
swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
345 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday remains a break day, the remains of the
shower activity is still ending across the southern panhandle this
evening. The next system sweeps in from the west overnight,
impacting the northeast gulf starting after midnight with
increasing marine winds and snow starting. A little after sunrise
winds and snow will move into the coastal areas and northern inner
channels, and finally reaching the Southeast panhandle around
noon.

A lot of precipitation will start as snow from the northeast gulf
coast to the southern panhandle. Temperature will be warming at
the lower levels and the intensity of the warming, will determine
how much snow will fall across the region. Initial estimates that
up to 3 inches at locations near sea level, while observation and
higher elevations will not change over as fast or not all as the
front moves through and this locales could see 3 to 4 inches. The
Haines Highway and Klondike highways near the border are areas
that may see around 4 inches snow around the border.

Post frontal passage, a surface low should be persisting in the
northeast gulf near the coast and onshore flow and showers.
Northern portions likely to see a snow or mix precip type. The
southern should see more of a rain with a mix. Showers through
Friday and improving conditions headed into Saturday where they
will be tapering off from the northwest. The improving conditions
for Saturday so that will be our next break.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ As of 10pm Tuesday. The
system impacting the panhandle will weaken and push inland through
the day Friday and Friday night. As the low moves into the
panhandle, many areas will see mixed precipitation or snow, though
think that any snowfall amounts will remain on the lower end. By
late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, signs are emerging
that there may well be a break on Saturday itself ahead of the
next system.

As the system departs, SE may enjoy drier conditions briefly
before entering an active weather pattern. Ridging will briefly
build before being quickly replaced by a shortwave trough Sunday.
This shortwave trough is associated with the next system, which
as it arrives on Sunday will bring with it more gusty winds and
could start as snow before transitioning to rain. Do think that
the warm air advection associated with this system will be
sufficient to encourage more rainfall from in conjunction with
the increasing daylight length. Still another system may arrive
after this towards Monday. Some signs are pointing towards this
system having a possible connection with moisture deeper in the
tropics, but confidence is lower in details this far out. Overall,
forecaster confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...Windy conditions Thursday looks to be one of the major
hazards. Strong low level winds the a stronger low level jet,
will result in low level wind shear at most of the TAF sites, to a
lesser extend at Haines and Skagway. Turbulence in the vicinity
of terrain in the wind blown areas will be predominate as well.

&&

.MARINE...Gale forces expected for early Thursday morning to
Thursday evening for much of the marine waters of Southeast
Alaska. Some areas of small craft winds of 30 kt in the northern
inner channels. A barrier jet near Cape Suckling is expected to
reach 50 kt storm as the front and low pass the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for Akz024-025>028.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     Akz024-024.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     Akz024.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for Akz017-021.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     Akz017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PCs. Gale Warning for
PCs-031>036-041>043-051. Small Craft Advisory for
PCs>013-021-053.

&&

Bezenek/GFS

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