Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Juneau, AK

733 
FZAK51 PAJK 060020
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-061600-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the northeast gulf will dissipate Tuesday 
night. A deep low over the western gulf will persist and will 
allow southerly winds to keep seas elevated Wednesday. Outlook. 
Another low pressure system moves into the Gulf from the south 
Thursday. 

$$

PKZ011-061600-
Glacier Bay-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt 
in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-061600-
Northern Lynn Canal-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening then 20 kt late. Seas 5 
ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. Rain showers and snow showers in the evening, then
rain showers late. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and
snow. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-061600-
Southern Lynn Canal-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 50 
kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Snow late. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-061600-
Icy Strait-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-061600-
Cross Sound-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft 
building to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-061600-
Stephens Passage-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Out of interior
passes, gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-061600-
Northern Chatham Strait-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-061600-
Southern Chatham Strait-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft,
except 17 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 16 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-061600-
Frederick Sound-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing in the evening. Out of 
interior passes, gusts to 35 kt early in the evening. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-061600-
Sumner Strait-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-061600-
Clarence Strait-
320 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 17
ft subsiding to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt
late. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers
late. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
310 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...The next system to impact SE Alaska is steadily
making its way northward, with its center currently located west
of Baranof Island. Observations throughout the day have reflected
the stronger winds and the rain which this system has already
brought to much of the southern and central panhandle. As the
system moves northward, it will bring rain and snow for more
northerly parts of the area beginning Monday evening. Outflow
should reduce precip as it progresses toward the colder, northern
panhandle through the overnight hours on Monday. As this first
system rolls through, the Icy Strait Corridor Northward looks
favored to receive between 1-3 inches. Juneau could receive
between 1-4 inches. Model discrepancies continue to lead to lower
forecast confidence, and consequently, some locations could
experience pockets of greater or lower snow accumulation. In
Juneau in particular, the timing of the increase in strong
southerly flow will determine how long the snow lasts. A later
onset of the wind could see more snow falling, while an earlier
onset could result in only minimal snow accumulations.

While there is no real lull in precip in the current forecast,
most locations warm up enough during the day on Tuesday to see a
transition to rain or at least a wintry mix. The far northern
locations of Haines and Skagway probably miss out on the warm up.
Haines and the Haines Highway in particular looks likely to
receive up to 4 inches of snow on Tuesday. Issued a winter
weather advisory to reflect this. A strong frontal band will move
northward through the panhandle on Tuesday, bringing with it storm
force winds to some of the other coastal waters, and high wind
warnings to the southern panhandle and Sitka. Besides the winds,
this system will also bring with it further rain and snow.
Currently kept totals below advisory level for most of the
panhandle, barring Haines. However, forecast confidence is low,
and slight variations in temperature and windfall forecast in
either direction will lead to substantial differences in
accumulation.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday as of 10PM Sunday/The
specifics of the long term forecast are still in the air as there
is still a bit of inconsistency within the models. That being
said, the general idea can still be summed up as an active
forecast for southeast Alaska.

Wednesday looks to start off morning temps mostly in the 30s.
Areas in the far north, Haines/Skagway/Northern Lynn Canal, may
start off just a touch cooler, in the 20s. The afternoon looks to
warm to the 30s to low 40s under a generally southeast/onshore
flow.

Using a blend of the NAM, GFS, and Canadian models, there looks
to be an area of low pressure that will sit over the central gulf.
This low would push a gale force front northward across the gulf
and along the coast late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong
winds would be expected over the open waters with rain and snow in
the panhandle.

The rest of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend, looks
busy with 3 more weather fronts that would move northward through
the area. The catch is, confidence in the timing and strength of
each individual front is low. But the overall pattern keeps a general
onshore pattern which would keep rain and snow in the forecast
and temperatures generally steady - lows mostly in the 30s and
highs in the 30s to 40s. We would also see the winds pick up,
especially along the coast, with each passing weather front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 4 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ023-027-
     028.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Tuesday morning for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018-025.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday morning for AKZ023-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for
     AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-036-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

GFS/GJS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau