Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Juneau, AK

523 
FZAK53 PAJK 080005
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-081815-
Yakutat Bay-
305 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the evening. 
Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to 45 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray late. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Strongest winds near Disenchantment Bay. 
Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

242 
FZAK53 PAJK 081326
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
426 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-090730-
Yakutat Bay-
426 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.TUE...NE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of Disenchantment 
Bay. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...An inverted trough extending northward along the
eastern gulf to Yakutat is causing some clouds and lingering
showers today. These will continue to shift southward through the
evening, making for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies for much
of the area. Building high pressure over the Yukon has already
started to ramp up outflow winds through the northern inner
channels with gale force winds observed at Eldred Rock. This is
brining in colder air and the clearing skies will make lows even
colder due to radiational cooling.

The Canadian high pressure will continue to build through the
beginning of next week, becoming extreme +1050mb predicted by all
models for the northern Yukon by Monday. For comparison, the Juneau
airport is reporting 1025mb attm, which is relatively high for
our area. That pressure (and dry airmass) can already be felt by
the body today and will only be stronger with each passing day.
Expect the N-NE winds to increase even more on Monday with the
typical outflow and mountain wave areas likely seeing strong
gusts. These will progressively advect in colder temperatures with
each passing day too, meaning wind chill. White Pass was already
as cold as -11F ambient temperature today and if just 15mph winds
are present, that equates to a -33F wind chill. For this reason,
expect cold wind chills to continue through Monday, then may even
hit the watch/warning level of -55F Monday night.

The outflow will cause some ocean effect clouds and snow showers
over the outside waters. There is potential for the ocean effect
clouds to extend over nearby land areas. Have seen this happen
even on the inside waters due to the outflow coming out of Lynn
Canal getting moisture off the water, then rising and forming the
clouds as it hits the land of Eastern Chichagof Island. Will have
to monitor the ocean effect clouds as they form with satellite
and adjust accordingly over the next few days.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/ As of Friday
evening. Models have continued to back off on the Monday system as
additional data has become available. It is looking increasingly
likely that the outflow from cold air surging out of the north
will be sufficient to keep the panhandle dry, though some cloud
cover, and perhaps the passing chance of some snow for coastal
areas. The big story will be the cold. Driven by a large area of
high pressure in the Yukon, cold air will surge out of various
passes and into the panhandle itself. This will see temperatures
steadily falling across the area from Monday onwards, with Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning likely to see some of the coldest
weather that this winter has brought to SE Alaska thus far. Given
the corresponding northerly outflow, windchill in some areas could
also become fairly impressive, particularly in Haines and Skagway
and along their respective highways. After Wednesday, ensemble
guidance diverges, although a trend towards warming temperatures
through the second half of next week has been emerging. Overall
forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until midnight AKST Monday night for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-041>043-051-052.

&&

Ferrin/GFS

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