Small Craft Advisory 647, NWS Juneau, AK

401 
FZAK51 PAJK 252325
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-261645-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A high in the Yukon slowly weakens through the remainder of the
weekend. N outflow winds will gradually diminish ahead of a
system moving in from the N late Sunday.  

$$

PKZ011-261645-
Glacier Bay-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow
in the evening. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-261645-
Northern Lynn Canal-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in. Freezing spray in the 
morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray
late. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-261645-
Southern Lynn Canal-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-261645-
Icy Strait-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-261645-
Cross Sound-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-261645-
Stephens Passage-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt except 25 kt near Taku Inlet early evening.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ032-261645-
Northern Chatham Strait-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-261645-
Southern Chatham Strait-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the evening then 2 ft
or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Snow.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-261645-
Frederick Sound-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-261645-
Sumner Strait-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-261645-
Clarence Strait-
225 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. Snow
late. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

649 
FZAK51 PAJK 261337
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-270330-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A high in the Yukon slowly weakens through the day on Sunday. A
system moves through the panhandle Sunday night and  Monday
morning. N Outflow winds briefly return later on Monday  before
diminishing by early Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ011-270330-
Glacier Bay-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow in the
evening. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray.
.TUE...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-270330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas building to
3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-270330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or 
less.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-270330-
Icy Strait-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...NE wind becoming 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-270330-
Cross Sound-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 6 ft building to
12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-270330-
Stephens Passage-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt except 25 kt near Taku
Inlet. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-270330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-270330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-270330-
Frederick Sound-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the morning, then
2 ft or less in the afternoon. Freezing spray early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-270330-
Sumner Strait-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
early in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow late. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft in 
the morning then 2 ft or less. Snow in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-270330-
Clarence Strait-
437 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow late. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...As expected, regional observations and satellite
are showing mostly clear skies across the region. A very weak low
in the northern Gulf responsible for overcast skies over Yakutat,
however this feature should become washed out in the overall flow
in the coming hours. Otherwise, a short wave is responsible for
some scattered skies over Lynn Canal and into Juneau. During the
day on Saturday, another weak low sneaks into the northern Gulf
and holds some possibility of bring mostly inconsequential snow
to Yakutat, but otherwise precip is not expected in the near term.
Being that there is very little to be concerned about regarding
precip and clouds, the main forecast challenges were the winds and
temps. Both of these elements have worked in tandem to create
quite a bit of consternation the past few days as some locations
would become a bit breezy, causing enough mixing from aloft to
create some unanticipated warming, particularly at night. A colder
push from the existing airmass should limit such issues leading
into tonight and Christmas, however still could see some very
irregular temperature fluctuations. For the most part, have tried
to follow a diurnal trend but have attempted to suggest a prompt
drop off in temps around sunset. Forecast temperatures continue
to be well below guidance and some low temp records could be in
jeopardy this weekend. Some blustery winds and freezing spray can
be expected through the central and northern inner channels
through much of the forecast period before diminishing Saturday
night as the pressure gradient weakens. A wind chill advisory is
also in place for White pass beginning this evening through noon
Sunday.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday Night/...On Sunday morning,
SE AK residents will be waking up from their long winter's nap
dressed in fur from their heads to their foots since it will be
very cold with much below normal temperatures, likely in the
single digits above or below zero depending on location.
Northeasterly outflow winds due to a high pressure in NW BC and a
relative low in the gulf will be relaxing through the day on
Sunday. An upper level ridge over gulf with 160-170kt model
northerly jet max over the panhandle on Sunday will slide
southeast allowing a fast moving shortwave and surface trough to
pass NW-SE off the outer coast Sunday night into Monday. This
system is forecast to take a similar track to previous systems.
Limited moisture with this system will limit snowfall amounts.
Models also show that it will take a while to saturate the
dendritic growth zone, limiting the event to a 12-hour window of
possible accumulating snow. Given the cold, dry air in place, any
snow that does fall will likely have high snow-to-liquid ratios
(15:1 or higher at times). With liquid amounts of only a few
tenths possible, this still could add up to a few quick inches to
freshen up the snow currently on the ground. Highest snowfall
potential looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning and the
highest amounts are expected along the coast. The southern outer
coast (Klawock, Craig, Hydaburg) areas will need to be monitored
for possible advisory level snowfall.

After this trough passes, clearing is expected Monday night into
Tuesday before the next potential system approaches the Panhandle
on Wednesday. Another period of N-NEly outflow winds are expected
in between systems, but given forecast pressure gradients, kept
channel winds under small craft criteria. Temperatures are
expected to moderate through the mid-term, but will remain near to
below normal. Models and ensembles are suggesting that the next
system on Wednesday-Thursday could bring in stronger warm air
advection with precipitation type becoming a challenge for some
locales, especially coastal areas. There are still some timing,
position, and strength challenges with this system, so there is a
healthy dose of uncertainty in the Weds-Thurs timeframe.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-032>034-041>043-051-052.

&&

JDR/BFL

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