Small Craft Advisory 627, NWS Juneau, AK

025 
FZAK51 PAJK 161227
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-170415-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weak surface ridge builds over the eastern Gulf on Thursday. 
Strong high pressure in the Yukon will shift into Northern British
Columbia through Thursday night. An area of low pressure moves 
into the central gulf Thursday night through Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-170415-
Glacier Bay-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
early in the morning then 2 ft or less. Freezing spray early in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-170415-
Northern Lynn Canal-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 5 ft
in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-170415-
Southern Lynn Canal-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the 
afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-170415-
Icy Strait-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding 
to 4 ft in the afternoon. Highest winds and seas near Point
Couverden.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-170415-
Cross Sound-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow late. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-170415-
Stephens Passage-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 
kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the 
afternoon. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Highest winds
and seas near Young Bay. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-170415-
Northern Chatham Strait-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-170415-
Southern Chatham Strait-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-170415-
Frederick Sound-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-170415-
Sumner Strait-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-170415-
Clarence Strait-
327 AM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKST Wed Dec 15 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Winter continues to hold a
firm grip over Southeast Alaska this week with well below normal
temperatures, light snow, and gusty northerly outflow. For the
start of the period, a weak upper short wave passes through the
region Wednesday bringing flurries and light snow to the Outer
Coast and Northern Panhandle. Little to no accumulation expected
from these passing snow showers. Ridging builds in behind the
weak wave tonight allowing skies to briefly clear out. Expect
temperatures to plummet once again for most areas with sub zero
readings across the far north and single digits to teens
elsewhere. Areas right along the Outer Coast and in the far
Southern Panhandle have not felt the brunt of this arctic outbreak
as as the marine influence keeps temperatures in the 20s and low
30s. Nevertheless, its going to be another very cold night for
Southeast Alaska standards.

Another cold day is expected Thursday with highs ranging from
near freezing in the far south to low teens/20s in the north.
Expect clouds to increase during the day as the next weather
system approaches the region from the west. A weak break in the
ridge will allow a low near the Aleutians to makes its way into
the Central Gulf late Thursday night into Friday. Southerly flow
ahead of the system will increase clouds and moisture through the
region. Due to such a strong, dry arctic airmass currently in
place, expect most areas to remain dry and cold through late
Thursday night. Light snow overspreads the region on Friday,
which will be discussed further in depth in the long term
discussion below.

Marine conditions and winds may be the most impactful elements
through the short term as northerly outflow continues. Expect
northerly Gales to develop Wednesday evening in Lynn Canal. With
such a long fetch of strong northerly flow, added fully developed
seas to Lynn Canal and Northern Chatham Strait through Thursday
morning. Small craft conditions and elevated winds are expected
in the other Central and Northern Inner Channels with stronger
gusts likely out of interior passes. With how cold temperatures
have been lately, expect freezing spray through the northern Inner
Channels tonight. By tomorrow, the northerly pressure gradient
begins to turn more easterly, allowing northerly outflow to
gradually relax. Although expect winds in Cross Sound, Icy Strait,
and along the backside of Douglas to remain elevated around small
craft conditions through Thursday. Land winds will remain breezy
as well across Upper Lynn Canal with gusts over 40 mph possible
near Lynn Canal in Haines, Skagway, and along the Klondike Hwy.

Forecast confidence remains high through the short term. Little
edits made to the forecast package today using a blend of short
term hi-res models.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ The extended forecast is
looking to stay below normal for temperatures and less active than
winter has been so far. The one major change being a renewed
chance for some snow accumulations for the southern half of the
area late Thursday night through Friday.

A front moving across the gulf will try to enter the panhandle
through late Thursday night. Confidence is building that advancing
precipitation will successfully overcome the outflow winds in the
southern panhandle. This will bring the potential for
accumulating snow across southern parts of the area. For the time
being, confidence remains on the lower end for accumulation
totals, but think that some areas could see upwards of 3-5 inches
at this time should everything come together. Should snow ratios
remain on the higher end, even small amounts of precipitation
would result in accumulations.

High pressure rebuilds on Saturday as the inverted trough from the
low to the south remains over the eastern gulf. This will keep the
region dry with northerly outflow holding any incoming systems at
bay.

Early next week is starting to look like more of the same. For
the most part it appears to be quieter with another weak system
coming through from the NW on Tuesday. However, guidance is at
odds on how much cold air will be in the area with some suggesting
more upper level ridging moving into the area and possibly some
warming while others keep the cold air around. This forecast is
leaning more toward the cooler solution with weaker systems. In
particular, a system diving out of the NW may try to interact
with the area Tuesday or Wednesday, but confidence remains low.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-041>043-051-052.

&&

CM/GFS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 PM AKST Wed Dec 15 2021

AKZ023-026>028-170000-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Petersburg,
Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
347 PM AKST Wed Dec 15 2021

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...

A system could bring accumulating snow to the Southern Panhandle
and parts of the outer coastal areas, from Port Alexander south,
on Friday. Some scenarios offer the possibility of 3-5 inches of
snowfall accumulation during this time. However, an anticipated
southerly wind push could bring in warmer air and result in a
quick transition or mix with rain. This would keep snowfall
totals lower, particularly near sea level and areas like Craig and
Hydaburg. Another possibility is that outflow winds erode much of
the precipitation before it reaches populated areas, resulting in
lower totals than anticipated. Should confidence rise in the
greater snowfall totals, Winter Weather Advisories may be issued.
Please stay tuned to our website, NOAA weather radio, or local
media for changes to the forecast.