Small Craft Advisory 601, NWS Juneau, AK

394 
FZAK52 PAJK 061142
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-070545-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front will enter the eastern gulf from the west by
Monday afternoon then move across the Panhandle Monday night
into Tuesday. The parent low will track from the NE Gulf
southward along the Panhandle coast Tuesday night through
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ041-070545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft. S
swell. Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-070545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-070545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the afternoon. Snow
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Snow in the evening. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-070545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-070545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
242 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

421 
FZAK52 PAJK 070046
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-071900-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front moves across the Panhandle Monday night into
Tuesday. The parent low will track from the NE Gulf southward
along the Panhandle coast Tuesday night through  Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ041-071900-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-071900-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-071900-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building
to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers late. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-071900-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. Snow in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE late. Seas 18 ft. Rain
showers and snow showers in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-071900-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the evening, then
becoming SW late. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain. Snow in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N late. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft
building to 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

752 
FZAK52 PAJK 071233
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-080645-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front continues to move across the Panhandle
Tuesday. The parent low will track from the NE Gulf southward
along the Panhandle coast Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Outlook. Another strong system will move into the gulf Thursday
into Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-080645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to
16 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-080645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in
the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-080645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers late. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-080645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE late. Seas 22 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-080645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N late. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft
building to 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

527 
FZAK52 PAJK 080037
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-081845-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will track from the NE Gulf southward along the 
Panhandle coast through Wednesday. Outlook: Another gale force 
system will move into the northern gulf Thursday into Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-081845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 15 ft
late. W swell in the evening. Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-081845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to gale 35 kt late. Seas 21 ft. Rain
showers early in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 14 ft
late. W swell in the evening. Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-081845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers. Snow showers. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
W swell in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-081845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming E late. Seas 22 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening. Snow showers in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-081845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 
ft late. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
609 AM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Sunday night/ Cold snap across the
AK Panhandle that brought temperatures down into the low 20 to
mid 20s for the central and southern panhandle and into the single
digits for far northern areas will end as warmer air moves in and
clouds increase. A weak front kept some isolated to scattered
snow showers overnight. Low pressure system tracks just south of
Haida Gwaii through Sunday night but majority of precip and higher
winds from this system will miss the region. Next low/front will
track across the Aleutian chain just reaching the AK peninsula.
Pre frontal snow will hit Yakutat area first Sunday night with 2
inches of snow accumulation initially before main bands of snow
arrive Monday. Then...you may need to get your snow shovels back
out and warm up your snow throwers.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday night/...The mid-range
forecast begins with the next low pressure system tracking along
the AK peninsula to near the Kenai Peninsula by late Monday night.
The low then slowly moves towards Prince William Sound by Tuesday
night before picking up speed and heading southeast across the
central Panhandle. The associated front impacts the panhandle
Monday, with most of the energy staying near the low. This looks
to limit the wind impacts associated with the front. Currently,
models are pointing to less than gales for the outside waters with
some small crafts for the inside.

The main story with this system still is the potential for
moderate snow accumulations for the northern and central
Panhandle. Models are still struggling a bit with timing the
onset of precipitation, with the NAM being the fastest, then the
ECMWF, then the GFS. Mostly went with a GFS/ECMWF combination.
This starts the precipitation in Yakutat around midnight Sunday
night, Monday afternoon for the Icy Strait corridor, and the rest
of the Panhandle by Tuesday morning. QPF estimates are between 1-2
inches with lesser amounts for Northern Lynn Canal and higher
amounts over the high terrain. The main forecast challenge for
today was estimating how much of that QPF will fall as snow. Most
locations will see precipitation starting as snow. 850mb temps and
1000-850mb thickness values suggest that the central and northern
panhandle will see accumulating snow before mixing with or
changing to rain Tuesday morning. The transition to a mix or rain.
Models do show the precipitation type changing back to snow
Tuesday night for the central Panhandle. Yakutat has the potential
to see 6-10 inches of snow before mixing. The Icy Strait corridor
including Juneau has the potential for 4-8 inches before the
changeover. Lower amounts are in the forecast further south (i.e
Petersburg, Kake, Wrangell).

After this storm moves off to the southeast, a brief period of
rain and snow showers is in the forecast before the next storm
arrives late week. Forecast confidence is average given model
timing differences - if the precipitation arrives earlier then
snow amounts could be higher.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for AKZ019>022-024>026.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041.

&&

Fritsch/BFL/CC

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