Small Craft Advisory 590, NWS Juneau, AK

556 
FZAK51 PAJK 302025 AAB
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-010345-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weak wave of low pressure moves NE into the central Panhandle
Tuesday afternoon. Another weak wave of low pressure moves north
through the eastern gulf on Wednesday. Outlook: Lower pressure
remains in the northern gulf through the weekend.  

$$

PKZ011-010345-
Glacier Bay-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-010345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

.TODAY...Light winds early in the morning becoming N wind 20 kt. 
Seas building to 4 ft. Snow in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain in the evening.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain 
and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-010345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow in the evening.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-010345-
Icy Strait-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain in the morning. Rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 4 
ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-010345-
Cross Sound-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain. Snow showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-010345-
Stephens Passage-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. Snow in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-010345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt early in the morning becoming S 10 kt. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-010345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 
10 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 8 ft subsiding late, 
except 19 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 16 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 16 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-010345-
Frederick Sound-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-010345-
Sumner Strait-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft building to 12 
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft,
except 13 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-010345-
Clarence Strait-
1125 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain early
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean
entrances, seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

SHORT TERM...Widespread snowfall has started across the panhandle,
even as far south as Ketchikan this afternoon. This dynamic
weather system is associated with a strong Atmospheric River south
of the panhandle and the parent low is forecasted to move towards
Cordova this evening. Winds will increase as the front passes,
with a strong wind headline posted this evening for Craig and
Hydaburg. The ASCAT pass from this morning picked up storm-force
winds near 50 kt around the parent low, thus high-end gale-force
winds are expected across the outside waters this evening, with a
strong barrier jet off the coast of Yakutat expected.

Snow levels are forecasted to continue to rise into tonight, with
the Icy Strait region reaching 200-1000 ft after late tonight.
Up to 3 inches in Haines, Yakutat, and Petersburg and around 4
inches in the Icy Strait to Juneau region. Hyder is forecasted to
total 6 to 9 inches by midnight tonight. Please see the Winter
Weather Advisories for more details.

A second front moving from south to north will move in late
tonight and models do agree that precipitation will back off ahead
of the front. As this second front moves through, expect breezy
conditions, with strong winds expected and gusts up to 45 mph for
Sitka, Hydaburg and surrounding areas.

Improved confidence on timing of the precipitation and winds, but
lower confidence on snowfall totals. There is some indication that
Yakutat and Haines may be above 3 inches of snowfall this evening
and QPF amounts were increased today.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday night as of 4 PM
Monday/...The mid- range forecast begins with a 500mb low sitting
over south-central Alaska. Model guidance (including ensemble
averages) has this low becoming more of a trough and tracking
eastward over the panhandle. Overall, this pattern would keep
precip in the forecast through Friday.

At the surface, area of low pressure looks to move through the
northeast gulf coast. This low would reinforcing the precip over
SE AK. One question will be precip type. Because of the track of
the low, much of the panhandle would be on the warm side of the
low. So, at this time, early Wednesday morning through Midday,
rain and snow would be expected due to 850mb temps around -4 to
-6C. This idea is supported by deterministic and ensemble models.

But by the mid to late afternoon, colder air would get pushed
into the panhandle from the cold side of the low. So 850mb temps
would cool to -7C or colder and only get colder going into
Wednesday night. This would swing expected precip type to snow for
much of the area.

Thursday and Friday looks like a more showery pattern as onshore
flow continues from a low pressure sitting and spinning over the
northern gulf coast. So, for the northern half of the panhandle,
would expect a “1-4 inches of snow every 12-24 hours” type of
weather pattern going into the weekend - just enough to keep us
busy but nothing super out of the ordinary for early December. The
south could see temps in the mid 30s to near 40 so daytime rain
would be possible.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ020-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-
     022-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>033-035-036-053.

&&

KRT/GJS

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