Small Craft Advisory 569, NWS Juneau, AK

713 
FZAK51 PAJK 230020
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-231630-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low races NE through the southern  Panhandle by Mon
morning and into NW BC by mid day Mon. Another low follows
behind it and arrives in the panhandle Tuesday morning. Outlook:
A gale force system enters the gulf and moves  toward the
panhandle Tuesday night.  

$$

PKZ011-231630-
Glacier Bay-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the evening, then becoming
NW 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft early in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
Rain showers late. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-231630-
Northern Lynn Canal-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Snow showers late. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 35 kt in
the evening. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-231630-
Southern Lynn Canal-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers late. 
.TUE...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Gusts to 35 kt.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-231630-
Icy Strait-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 ft early in the
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-231630-
Cross Sound-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt in the evening, then
becoming SW late. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-231630-
Stephens Passage-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
showers. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-231630-
Northern Chatham Strait-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Gusts to
40 kt late. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers 
late.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-231630-
Southern Chatham Strait-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. S swell in the evening. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Gusts to
45 kt late. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 9 ft building to 13 ft late. Rain showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft,
except 16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-231630-
Frederick Sound-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-231630-
Sumner Strait-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. Rain
showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-231630-
Clarence Strait-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft late.
Rain showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft
building to 11 ft late. Rain showers late. 
.WED...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 17 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 17 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
646 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...A low passing over the S panhandle has brought with
it windy conditions and renewed precipitation for much of the
area. Ketchikan in particular experienced high wind during the
overnight hours. As the western half of the low has moved over
various areas, snow has been introduced into places like Klawock
and Petersburg. Think that these areas could see some minor snow
accumulations before the precipitation intensity diminishes
through the morning hours. In the N half of the panhandle, many
areas have seen temperatures at or near freezing which has
encouraged a rain snow mix in some locations. Think that some
minor snow accumulations may be possible across the N as well,
particularly in cooler areas.

SW flow arrives for much of the S and Central panhandle in the
wake of the low through the day on Monday, though suspect that
winds in Lynn Canal will try to stay N thanks to pressure gradient
induced outflow. This SW flow, along with a decaying low over the
N gulf, will ensure continued showers across the area. A
shortwave will race up from the SW gulf and arrive early Tuesday
morning This system doesn't look particularly impressive, and
aside from more widespread coverage for precip, do not expect
significant impacts from it at this time.

A powerful system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday. For
further details on this system, see the long term discussion
below. Winter Storm Watches are out for much of the N panhandle in
association with it. Overall, forecaster confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/ Very active and uncertain
winter weather pattern for southeast Alaska through the week
including potentially impactful weather for holiday travel. A
series of fronts and deeper lows track into the AK Gulf
bringing ample moisture which along with initially cold
temperatures that could produce more heavy snow for the central
and northern panhandle before a transition to rain. Meanwhile the
southern panhandle will change over the rain much sooner with
limited snow accumulation, however these areas will be impacted by
heavy rainfall.

Remnants of the low over the Northern Gulf Coast will keep shower
activity over most of the panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Precipitation amounts including snow expected to be minor, a
couple of inches. Temperatures north of Frederick Sound should be
cold enough for mostly snow with some mix of rain while
temperatures for the southern areas will start to warm with snow
initially then mainly rain. Then Wednesday is where the weather
takes a turn.

We've been tracking the development of a low which is now
projected to move northeast into the AK Gulf from the N Pacific
starting late Tuesday night. Along the front at the triple point
is another developing circulation. Similar to the system that
brought heavy snow to the panhandle over the weekend this system
also has defined warm and cold sectors v an occluded front. Also
the previous northerly gradient and cold air advection sets up for
an over running event. Question is while we've got the long fetch
of tropical moisture for heavy precip concern is warming and when
will the transition snow to rain occur. While increased precip
rates will have snow melt cooling, hence more snow, we don't have
a solid cold air mass in place. In addition the track of this
triple point low has shown large variation run to run, so not
confident resulting weather. MOS guidance has been variable on
snow totals, and while ensemble snow totals are high enough to
warrant the winter weather watch being issued, getting 850 temps
warming rapidly and winds mixing down and warming surface temps
right when the higher QPF values correspond to the higher snow
totals. So in a word, uncertainty with this system on precip type.
What expected: Heavy precip is expected, increased winds are
expected, but snow totals and where/when snow will start and stop
are the issue. Beyond Thursday with an upper low in place for most
of the long range will continue to see more low pressure systems
move into the AK Gulf from the southwest. Overall looking like a
warm and rainy pattern.

Went with a blend of ECMWF/GFS to get the Wednesday system into
the grids. New WPC picked up on this new low but then had little
change beyond Thursday afternoon. Forecast confidence is below
average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday
     morning for AKZ017>021-025.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-042-043-051>053.

&&

GFS/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
623 AM AKST MON NOV 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
11/21/2021  M55.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST AT SALMON LANDING MARINE EXCHANGE SITE.

1118 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
11/21/2021  M55.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT BEFORE THE POWER WAS
            CUT TO THE ASOS.

0102 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 WNW KETCHIKAN        55.42N 131.95W
11/22/2021  M58.00 MPH       PKZ036             AK   MESONET

            PEAK GUST AT GUARD ISLAND MARINE EXCHANGE SITE.

0145 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
11/22/2021                                      AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGE AT KETCHIKAN. LASTED FROM AROUND 145 TO 245
            AM.

0145 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.58W
11/22/2021                                      AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            POWER OUT UP TO FOUR TIMES ON ANNETTE ISLAND OVERNIGHT.

0254 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SAXMAN                  55.32N 131.60W
11/22/2021  M63.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK GUST AT SAXMAN SEAPORT MARINE EXCHANGE SITE.

&&

EDWARD.LISKE