Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 567, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Nov 21, 2021, 3:31 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 21, 2021, 3:31 AM AKST (12:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 23, 2021, 3:39 AM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
701 FZAK52 PAJK 211231 CWFAEG Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-220645- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A low races NE into the northeast gulf through Sun. A new low approaches the southern Panhandle late Sun night. $$ PKZ041-220645- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt late. Seas 15 ft. W swell in the evening. Rain in the evening. .MON...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft. .THU...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ042-220645- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt late. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. W swell in the evening. .MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft. .THU...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ043-220645- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft building to 29 ft. Rain early in the morning. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. SW swell in the evening. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 20 ft. .THU...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ051-220645- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing 25 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft. Rain early in the morning. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. SW swell in the evening. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 18 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ052-220645- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 331 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain early in the morning. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell becoming SW late. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. .THU...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
830 FZAK52 PAJK 220046 CWFAEG Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-221900- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A weak low in the northern gulf migrates to the NW gulf by Mon morning. A gale force low races NE into the southern Panhandle by Mon morning and into NW BC by mid day Mon. High pressure persists across the Canadian Yukon. $$ PKZ041-221900- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the evening, then becoming NW 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. W swell in the evening. Rain. .MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ042-221900- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the evening, then becoming NW 25 kt late. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. W swell becoming SW late. .MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ043-221900- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. SW swell in the evening. .MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ051-221900- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 11 ft late. Rain showers in the evening. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers late. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ052-221900- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 346 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft late. S swell in the evening. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$
816 FZAK52 PAJK 221235 CWFAEG Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-230645- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A gale force low races NE through the southern Panhandle Mon morning and into NW BC by mid day Mon. Another low follows behind it and arrives in the panhandle Tuesday morning. Outlook: A gale force system enters the gulf and moves toward the panhandle Tuesday night. $$ PKZ041-230645- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...W wind 35 kt in the morning becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ042-230645- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ043-230645- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ051-230645- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers late. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ052-230645- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$
515 FZAK52 PAJK 230019 CWFAEG Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-231830- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... Weak front passes over the panhandle tonight into Tuesday. Gale force system enters the gulf and moves toward the panhandle Tuesday night. $$ PKZ041-231830- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft late. Rain showers late. .WED...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ042-231830- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers late. .WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ043-231830- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft late. Rain showers late. .WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ051-231830- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt late. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft late. Rain showers. Snow showers late. .WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ052-231830- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 319 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers late. .WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 7 ft. $$
307 FZAK52 PAJK 231239 CWFAEG Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-240645- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A weak front passes over the panhandle this morning. A gale-force system enters the gulf and moves toward the panhandle Tuesday night. $$ PKZ041-240645- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 11 ft building to 20 ft late. Rain showers late. .WED...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. .FRI...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ042-240645- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 20 ft late. Rain showers late. .WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the morning. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ043-240645- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft late. Rain showers late. .WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ051-240645- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers early in the morning. .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft late. Rain and snow showers. .WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the morning. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ052-240645- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft late. Rain and snow showers late. .WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the morning. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 20, 4:46 PM AKST, 10 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 4:46 PM AKST, 10 hours 45 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
446 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021
.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ A storm force low is located
south of Kodiak Island and is pushing a front onshore.
Precipitation has progressed from south to north through the day.
Temperatures were able to cool efficiently Friday night allowing
for a cold air mass to be situated over the panhandle. Across the
south, precip started as snow but has since changed over to rain.
Across the central and northern panhandle, snow is falling with
accumulations in Kake, Port Alexander, Petersburg, and Wrangell.
These areas are expected to change over to rain tonight. Further
north, areas including Gustavus and Juneau are beginning to see
snowfall. Through the evening, heavy snow is expected through the
Icy Strait corridor and north. Temperatures are expected to
gradually warm to above freezing early Sunday warming with the
warm air advancing with the front. A change from snow to rain is
expected across the Icy Strait Corridor including Juneau. There
does still exist the possibility of a brief period of freezing
rain late Saturday night before snow changes to all rain. With the
change in precipitation, impacts to travel as rain will be
falling on 5 to 7 inches of fresh snow Sunday.
Across Upper Lynn Canal, temperatures look to remain below
freezing allowing for heavy snow to continue through Sunday. This
has prompted us to extend the Winter Storm Warnings for Haines and
Skagway though 3 pm Sunday. Winds have been increasing this
afternoon through the Inner Channels. Observations show winds
between 25 to 35 kts. These winds will decrease through the night
before increase again Sunday as the low shifts into the northern
gulf increasing gradients once more. Sunday, drier air begins to
wrap into the panhandle causing more rain/snow showers throught
the day.
Biggest change to the forecast was with the low center track
shifting a little further east heading south of Icy Bay. With this
track, pressure gradients have caused winds to be gustier through
the Inner Channels.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thanksgiving/ An active period
continues as a wintertime pattern remains around Southeast
Alaska.
The period begins with an ongoing storm system impacting Southeast
Alaska. By Monday morning, A low will be pushing into the
Northern Gulf Coast near Cape Suckling with an occluded front
extending eastward over the Panhandle. The triple point will be
located just offshore of Prince of Wales Island which, will be the
focus for wave development late Sunday night through Monday
morning. There are good upper level dynamics with this wave as it
develops and treks north over the Southern Panhandle. A strong
jet streak to the east puts the region in an area of enhanced lift
in the right exit region of the jet. At 850 mb, a strong low
level jet near 80 kt barrels into the Southern Panhandle around
12z Monday bringing copious amounts of moisture northward. The
heaviest rainfall will move into the region just ahead of the wave
Sunday evening and persist through early Monday morning. Total
rainfall across the Southern Panhandle from the weekend into
Monday could be as high as 4 inches in Misty Fjords and around
Ketchikan. Snow levels rise during this time as well, expect minor
rises to rivers and streams due to snow melt and heavy rainfall.
At this time little to no flooding is expected. Heaviest rain
should taper off and transition to showers Monday morning as the
wave moves off into Canada.
Winds could potentially be very impactful with this developing
wave as strong winds associated with the low level jet could mix
down to the surface. The surface pressure gradient ahead of this
wave has more of a NE orientation across the Southern Panhandle,
which typically will limit high winds from making it down to the
surface. A NE pressure gradient typically means blocked flow for
Ketchikan as they are in a NW-SE oriented channel. However with
the wave passing right through the area, the possibility is still
there for gusty winds. This will need to be monitored closely over
the next day.
A relatively benign weather period sets up Monday through Tuesday
across the region as a low remains in the northern gulf and cold
air advection moves in aloft. Showers will persist during this
period transitioning to snow showers Monday evening through
Tuesday as colder air filters. The potential is there for minor
snow accumulations from snow showers, however, at this time
impactful accumulations are not expected at sea level.
The active weather pattern picks back up again Wednesday and
continues through the end of the Holiday week. Multiple systems
are expected to move north into the Gulf and impact Southeast
Alaska during this time. Models and ensembles are hinting at a low
on Wednesday moving northward through the Gulf and swinging a
front into the Panhandle early Wednesday morning. With a colder
airmass already in place, this pattern would favor a heavy snow
changing to rain scenario. The potential is there for accumulating
snow Wednesday morning before a changeover to rain during the
day. There is still disagreement on low placement and track with
both models and ensembles; therefore confidence remains low in the
exact details of the forecast. However a general snow to rain
scenario Wednesday appears likely at this time.
Guidance continues to indicate another low right on the heals of
the Wednesday system. Since much of the cold air will be scoured
out from the previous system, P-type will likely be all rain for
most areas on Thanksgiving. Due to model and ensemble
discrepancies with low placement and track, it's too early to go
into the exact details of potential impacts. Impacts to marine
areas from strong winds will likely occur the latter half of this
week; however details regarding those impacts will be fine tuned
in later forecast packages as agreement among guidance becomes
clear.
Used a blend of GFS/Euro/Canadian for days 3 and 4 then
transitioned to mainly WPC by day 5 for guidance.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024-
026.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ020>022-025.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023-028.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ018-019.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043-051-052-310.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035-053.
&&
99/99
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauIn the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 21, 1:31 AM AKST, 2 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
131 AM AKST SUN NOV 21 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SSE MOSQUITO LAKE 59.40N 136.00W
11/20/2021 M5.8 INCH HAINES AK TRAINED SPOTTER
5.75 INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED AT 26 MILE
BETWEEN 5PM AND 945PM SATURDAY. STILL
SNOWING AT THE TIME.
&&
NFThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 3:41 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:41 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Nov 20, 11:28 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 21 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:30 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:30 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 17 hr | |
| Nov 21, 10:47 AM AKST | High Wind Warning | AJK | 19 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:50 PM AKST | Winter Storm Watch | AJK | 25 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.