Small Craft Advisory 551, NWS Juneau, AK

901 
FZAK52 PAJK 160037
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161845-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure trough over the northern gulf will track across
the panhandle Monday night. A gale force low tracks E to NE
across the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. Outlook. Low pressure
lingers over the north-central gulf Wednesday into Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-161845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W late. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...Mid level closed low tracks from the SE AK Gulf
eastward into S British Columbia through Monday afternoon. At the
surface an elongated low over the gulf follows a similar track. A
high pressure ridge then moves across the gulf Monday night into
Tuesday while a weak low develops the NE Gulf and the associated
front moves towards the panhandle. Meanwhile the next significant
weather maker begins to move in from the Western AK Gulf.

Northerly gradient between high pressure over the Yukon and the
SE Gulf lows has already increased and will continue to
strengthen this evening. Expecting gales for N Lynn canal and
small craft winds for norther N-S oriented channels as well as outflow
winds. These winds will diminish through Monday as the low moves
into BC resulting in a weakening gradient. The NE Gulf low will
create a weak barrier jet by Monday but only expecting 20 kt
winds there.

For Sunday, as seen on Satellite imagery, the eastern most lobe of
the current gulf low brought in light rain showers to the
southern regions. As this wave weakens the western lobe of the low
will move into the SE Gulf Sunday evening while strengthening,
brining more showers to the south. The low track should keep
majority of precip south of the icy strait corridor tonight and
Monday. Precip will again moves over most of the panhandle with
the first weak front Monday night just before the next big system
Tuesday.

Cold temps overnight due to the northerly flow and especially for
areas to the north with clear skies and radiational cooling. So as
of now as temps cool over the central and southern areas will see
some mix of snow later tonight and into Monday morning. Any
accumulations will be minor with at most 1 to possibly 2 inches.

Most models were is fair agreement with overall synoptic pattern.
Differences in position the the Sunday night low center had
greater impact on extent of showers moving north. Went with a
NAM/SREF blend for PoP as is initialized will with current precip
reports. Otherwise and changes to previous forecast were minor.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 PM Saturday / At
the 500 Mb level, a closed low drops out of interior of the state
to just south of Prince William Sound, while a short wave moves
in from the west south of the gulf as develops into a small closed
upper center in the trough that is aimed at the Pacific Northwest.
Flow over the gulf continues to remain onshore into early Friday.
The closed low over the northeast gulf move into western Canada
through the weekend.

Tuesday, ensembles continue to support high probabilities of 2 to
5 inches of snowfall for much of the northern Panhandle
Tuesday/Tuesday night. However, given efficient overrunning and
more moisture, some areas could receive more, potentially giving
the region our first major winter storm of 6 plus inches.
Contrarily, warm air will follow the system. Should it follow too
quickly, snowflakes will collapse into grains and accumulations
will be much lighter. Winds could also introduce mixing that kills
higher accumulations. However, for the threat a special weather
statement has been posted, which includes a late week threat of
snow for the entire Panhandle.

The surface features on Tuesday has a frontal band lifting
northeast across the gulf into the the Panhandle area. The remains
of the surface low will move to the northeast gulf. Over the
Arctic Slope a cold high pressure system build in and shift south
and southeast into Northwest Canada. Thursday into Friday, the
pressure gradient along the northern panhandle increases by Friday
night and will likely continue through much of the weekend.
Colder air will spill into the northern gulf Friday and Saturday,
with the colder air stretches into the central panhandle. Have
increased the outflow winds for Friday into Sunday especially over
the northern inner channels marine zones. Land areas also got
slight adjustment up on wind speeds too. The temperatures looked
close so didn't make much in way of changes.

The interesting forecast challenge for the next weekend is that
with the flow pattern, chance to likely precipitation is expected
to continue Friday into the weekend, however with the cooling
temperatures, the P-type is trending towards snow or a mix. This
situation will need to watched to see where the cold air goes and
if there are any impulses and bands of moisture to enhance
snowfall. For now looking and light to moderate snowfall
accumulations. Even Ketchikan and Prince of Wales Island could
receive significant winter weather late in the week.

The model agreement stayed about the same or increased a little
over the last 24 hours.

.ADDITIONAL MID-RANGE COMMENTS.../Tuesday through Thursday
night as of 3PM Sunday/...Winter Storm Watches are now in effect
for the Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway areas for the Tuesday into
Wednesday timeframe. Plenty of moisture is available for this
system to work with. For Yakutat, the heaviest snow rates look to
be Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches are possible. A changeover to a
wintry mix or rain is anticipated near sea level by late
Wednesday morning as temperatures warm out ahead of the
approaching front. The heaviest snow rates are expected Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. For the Haines area, pre-frontal
southeasterly wind shift is expected to raise temperatures enough
to cause a changeover to rain near for Haines near sea level on
Tuesday night around midnight. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
inches are possible. Near Haines Border Customs, the warmer air
is not expected to reach that location until around mid-morning
Wednesday. Therefore, the precipitation should remain all snow
until around that time. Expect higher snow amounts near the
Canadian border. For near Skagway, the heaviest snow rates are
expected to occur on Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations of 5
to 12 inches are possible. The southerly push of warmer air is
expected to warm temperatures enough near sea level for the
precipitation to transition over to rain by early Wednesday
morning and raise snow levels to around 800 feet. Precipitation
will remain snow through the period for White Pass. Expect the
highest snow amounts near White Pass.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018.

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM Tue until 6 AM Wed for
     AKZ017.
 Winter Storm Watch from 12 PM Tue until 3 PM Wed for AKZ018.
 Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM Tue until 12 PM Wed for AKZ019.

MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012. Small Craft Advisory for
     PKZ013-022-041-042.

&&

PRB/Bezenek/JLC

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