Small Craft Advisory 533, NWS Juneau, AK

837 
FZAK51 PAJK 091310 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-100400-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
High pressure persists in Northern Canada through Tuesday. A
strong low pressure west of Haida Gwaii weakens as it moves north
into the Dixon Entrance by Tuesday evening. 

$$

PKZ011-100400-
Glacier Bay-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt overnight. Seas 3 ft
in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt late. Seas building to 3 
ft late.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-100400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late in the afternoon.
Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late.
.WED...N wind diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft in 
the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt overnight. Seas building
to 4 ft overnight.
.THU...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding
to 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-100400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less late.
.WED...N wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt overnight. Seas building
to 4 ft.
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-100400-
Icy Strait-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind increasing to 15 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4 
ft late.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-100400-
Cross Sound-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming light late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-100400-
Stephens Passage-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft
in the afternoon. Rain showers early in the morning. Rain showers
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less late. Rain showers in the evening.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to
3 ft.

$$

PKZ032-100400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers early in 
the morning. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming light late. Seas 3 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Snow showers and rain showers in the 
evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-100400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft
or less in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas
5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft late.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-100400-
Frederick Sound-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the
evening, then snow showers late. 
.WED...E wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-100400-
Sumner Strait-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt by the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less,
except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-100400-
Clarence Strait-
410 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less by the afternoon. Seas 13 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the morning. Seas 3 ft, 
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 
ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

777 
FZAK51 PAJK 100052
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-101700-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure over Dixon Entrance weakens as it moves eastward
through Wednesday morning as a high pressure ridge tracks over
the E Gulf and Panhandle. A gale force low moves into the SE
Gulf by Thursday. 

$$

PKZ011-101700-
Glacier Bay-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-101700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-101700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-101700-
Icy Strait-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-101700-
Cross Sound-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-101700-
Stephens Passage-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-101700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-101700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 15 
ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-101700-
Frederick Sound-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing . Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the evening. Snow showers 
late.
.WED...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-101700-
Sumner Strait-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft 
near ocean entrances. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. 
Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-101700-
Clarence Strait-
352 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
230 PM AKST Mon Nov 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...Showers ahead of the next frontal system continue
to stream over the southern panhandle. This will continue to
produce light showers with limited precipitation today ahead of
the next storm system that will move northward into the southern
Panhandle tonight. While precipitation amounts with this
approaching front remain light, temperatures are cold enough with
this system that some location may see their first snowfall of the
year. Any snow accumulations should be light with this system with
the higher elevations of the road system in the southern Panhandle
receiving the highest amounts.

Further North, Taku winds are possible in the Downtown Juneau
area this evening and early morning hours. Model guidance suggests
that wind speeds are not high enough to necessitate a high wind
warning, but a strong wind statement is currently out to highlight
these stronger winds. The timing for these strong winds is limited
since the low responsible for the strong gradient continues to
weaken as it moves north. Snow showers will also be possible
further north into the Icy Strait area including Juneau, once
again accumulations are expected to be light if any.

Some shower activity will remain possible Tuesday into Wednesday
as limited instability remains in the area. This could produce
additional light rain and snow showers across the panhandle again. No
significant impacts are expected over Southeast Alaska on
Wednesday ahead of the next weather system that is expected to
impact the area Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday as of 10 PM Sunday/...The
main story for the long term is the system reaching the panhandle
Thursday evening into Saturday. The majority of the areas will see
heavy rates of precipitation, above-normal storm totals, and
breezy conditions.

Models continue to align well for the larger system Thursday and
into the weekend. Heavy rates of precipitation in the form of rain
to the south and snow possible to the north are likely. Total
amounts of precipitation will likely be above normal, and in some
locations such as Kake and Sitka, may break a daily record. Areas
that could see snow include Yakutat, Hyder, Juneau, Gustavus,
Haines, and surrounding areas. Highest confidence and highest
amounts expected along the Haines Highway and Haines town. If the
system comes in sooner or later, while the temperatures are
warmer, then this system may start as rain instead. Skagway area
is likely to have gusty winds, which may keep surface temperatures
warmer, thus resulting in rainfall instead of snowfall or drying
out the chances of precipitation all together. As the timing of
the system approaches, additional ensembles and model data will
become available for fine-tuning and increasing confidence.

Winds will increase as the system approaches the panhandle
resulting in breezy conditions on land and winds will decrease as
the low-pressure dissipates. Specifically, ensembles are
indicating strong winds off the coast of Klawock and Sitka as the
system approaches. Marine forecast of gale force winds around 40
knots is expected around the low pressure in the Gulf, with the
strongest gradients in most W/E oriented channels in the Northern
& Southern Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-036-041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-031>034-051.

&&

Suk/KRT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 PM AKST MON NOV 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DOUGLAS                 58.27N 134.39W
11/08/2021                   JUNEAU             AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DOUGLAS                 58.27N 134.39W
11/08/2021                   JUNEAU             AK   PUBLIC

            TREE ALONG MOUNT JUMBO TRAILHEAD ON CBJ LAND
            SNAPPED AND STRUCK A PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

&&