Small Craft Advisory 523, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
251 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Thru Saturday night / A weakening low moves
northward into the southern panhandle returning rain to the area.
The area of rain will spread into the northern panhandle by Friday
morning. With this low, an easterly mountain wave event has
formed in the Juneau area, with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. The
pressure gradient has also increased, which has north winds of
roughly 30 kt in the Lynn Canal marine zone. There is a potential
for some of the winds to reach 35 kt (gale force).

About 400 nm Southwest of Haida Gwaii a low in the eastern
pacific Thursday afternoon will travel east and northeast curling
northward to pass west of Haida Gwaii Friday morning, with a depth
in the mid 980s. the low then continue along follow the coastline
to be west of the Cross Sound area Saturday morning. From here
the low weakens and drifts north-northwest. Model solutions did
part ways as the low was getting this way. Stayed more near the
NAM solution as the GFS was the outlier in the grouping today.

While the second low tracks north through the eastern gulf. Winds
of 25 to 35 kt for the coastal waters and into the inside waters
with 25 to 35 kt winds. Starting Friday afternoon, outer coastal
communities south of Sitka will see gusts increasing above 30 mph
and lasting overnight for the southwest part of the panhandle.
Gusts to 40 mph are likely and have already posted a strong wind
for the west side of Prince of Wales Island for late Friday
afternoon.

Saturday the weather should see the PoPs slowly decreasing in a
south to north progression. The other thing that will cooler air
will be spreading across the gulf aloft so that ptype in the
northern gulf may be flipping to a Snow label. Will need to watch
this, however the drying PoP values should keep significant snows
away.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 PM Wednesday/...
After a passing area of low pressure Friday, rain chances will
linger around Saturday.

Afterwards, a 500mb trough over the gulf looks to transition to a
cutoff low over the gulf then move southeast. This would
translate to a dry few days for the northern half of the panhandle
while the south would still have some chances for rain.

So while Sunday is looking mostly dry with potential for some
breaks, once that cutoff low starts to move southeast late
Sunday, clouds and chances for light rain move back in for the
start to the week for the far southern areas.

The northern half, however, will see offshore flow. This would
translate to dry conditions, fewer clouds, and cold, below normal
temps. Lows early next week could be in the teens to 20s for the
northern half, with lower 30s for lows in the southern half. Highs
would be in the 20s to 30s.

Inner channel wind speeds will, overall, decrease Saturday before
increasing to around 10 to 15 kts on Sunday. Winds speeds for
early next looks to be around 10 to 20 kts on average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-032-035-042-043-051-052.

&&

Bezenek/GJS

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