Small Craft Advisory 508, NWS Juneau, AK

910 
FZAK51 PAJK 281349 CCA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-290230-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure will build in over the eastern Gulf 
through Thursday morning, then be displaced to the east as a front
approaches from the west Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ011-290230-
Glacier Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-290230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-290230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-290230-
Icy Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

CORRECTED

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Strongest winds W of Point Adolphus. Seas 
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-290230-
Cross Sound-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-290230-
Stephens Passage-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-290230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt, except 20 kt near Hawk Inlet. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-290230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
building to 4 ft. Seas 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain late.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-290230-
Frederick Sound-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 4 ft. Rain late.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-290230-
Sumner Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
building to 4 ft. Seas 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-290230-
Clarence Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 3
ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the morning. Seas 6 ft near ocean
entrances.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

626 
FZAK51 PAJK 281653 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-290245-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure will build in over the eastern Gulf 
through Thursday morning, then be displaced to the east as a front
approaches from the west Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ011-290245-
Glacier Bay-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-290245-
Northern Lynn Canal-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-290245-
Southern Lynn Canal-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-290245-
Icy Strait-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Strongest winds W of Point Adolphus. Seas 
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-290245-
Cross Sound-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-290245-
Stephens Passage-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-290245-
Northern Chatham Strait-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt, except 20 kt near Hawk Inlet. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-290245-
Southern Chatham Strait-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
building to 4 ft. Seas 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain late.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-290245-
Frederick Sound-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 4 ft. Rain late.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-290245-
Sumner Strait-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
building to 4 ft. Seas 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-290245-
Clarence Strait-
853 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 3
ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the morning. Seas 6 ft near ocean
entrances.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Thru Friday Night / The forecast begins with, as
is common in SE AK during this time of the year, more rainfall. A
weak trough is moving into SE AK bringing with it chances for a
few claps of thunder along parts of the outer coast, and rain for
everyone else. Onshore flow will continue across SE AK through
early Thursday, before a period of more scattered showers ensues
ahead of another wave arriving late Thursday into Friday. The
possibility of some snow mixing in with rain could occur late
Thursday night as 850 mb temperatures cool to between -7 and -5 C
across much of the area. While this would likely stay confined
largely to the N panhandle and the N half of the Icy Strait
Corridor, some roads at higher elevations on Prince of Wales
Island may also see a rain snow mix. At this time, any possible
accumulation is expected to be little to none.

Looking ahead, the wave will quickly fall apart as it encounters
strengthening offshore flow , and it is possible that large parts
of the panhandle could be dry by Friday night. Winds through
Thursday night will be strong in the inner channels, with many
areas seeing small craft winds, and gale force winds are
anticipated in S Lynn. Winds will continue to remain elevated
through the day on Thursday before diminishing in the N panhandle
Thursday evening. Friday will see winds renewed in strength across
the board as the wave moves in. Temperatures will prove to be the
greatest forecasting challenge, especially Thursday night. Should
lower temperatures prevail, as anticipated by many of our models,
chances of snow at sea level increase. Should temperatures remain
slightly warmer, as anticipated by MOS Guidance, chances of snow
near sea level will be substantially reduced. Both sides have been
sticking with their progged outcomes for multiple days. Given the
significantly cooler 850 mb temperatures, current reasoning is
that even with cloud cover, temps will more likely be on the
cooler side. However, this will need to be closely monitored
going forward.

.LONG TERM.../Fri through Wed as of 10 pm Tue/ The beginning of
the extended range is a period of transition as the broad upper
trough that will be over the state gets pushed W and weakens as a
strong upper ridge begins to build over the panhandle and Western
Canada. This ridge is the main feature for most of the extended
period for the panhandle as it lasts through the weekend and into
early next week before there are signs of it getting pushed E mid
week.

For the panhandle, this means that showers that linger across the
area Fri, from onshore flow continuing from the short range, will
start to dry out as we get into the weekend. Northern panhandle
areas will likely hang on to the showers through Sat morning as a
warm front moves through the area. Low level flow then turns SE
and E which will dry the panhandle out for Sun and Mon. Rain has
the possibility to return Tue night into Wed as the upper ridge
gets pushed east and onshore flow returns. The highest uncertainly
in the forecast is when the dry spell will end next week with
some guidance suggesting as early as mon night or as late as Tue
night. Leaning more toward the Tue night scenario as guidance
usually pushes ridges out far too early in most cases.

Unlike most times when we get clearing skies and offshore flow
this time of year, it will not be accompanied by a cold air mass.
Rather, southerly flow aloft will be bringing in rather warm air.
Guidance continues to indicate a wide area of 850 mb temps of 4
to 7 degrees C over the panhandle Sun into Mon. This translates
into highs reaching well into the 40s (possibly low 50s for
southerly panhandle locations), particularly on Mon, and lows
above freezing for many areas Sun night and Mon night. Freezing
levels will also be on the rise reaching 6000 to 7000 ft at the
same time so there will likely be some melting of higher elevation
snow at that time. Freezing levels lower again into mid week, but
only down to around 2500 ft in the north.

Winds during the long range will not be much of a concern for the
panhandle with mostly 20 kt or less winds expected. The gulf
waters are another story, as the front that is being blocked from
moving further east by the upper ridge is kicking up 25 to 35 kt
winds across a wide area of the central gulf through the weekend.
Seas up to 20 ft will also plague the gulf through much of that
time. Winds and seas start to diminish into mid next week as that
front weakens and finally pushes into the panhandle.

Overall forecast changes were minor with most attention paid to
the winds and waves over the gulf this weekend and rising temps in
the late weekend and early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

GFS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau