Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Juneau, AK

968 
FZAK51 PAJK 251308
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-260400-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge will move east into the gulf and last through Monday
before being replaced by a trough Monday night. Outflow winds 
will increase Monday night into Tuesday as strong high pressure 
builds in the Yukon. 

$$

PKZ011-260400-
Glacier Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Freezing
spray late. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-260400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the morning. Seas 5
ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas building to
7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-260400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft
building to 7 ft late. Freezing spray late. 
.TUE...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...N gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-260400-
Icy Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-260400-
Cross Sound-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding late. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-260400-
Stephens Passage-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-260400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt late. 
Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-260400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
early in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances,
seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas
5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-260400-
Frederick Sound-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-260400-
Sumner Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except
4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-260400-
Clarence Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through monday night/...Snow shower activity is
winding down this evening, although most of the outer coast and
central inner channels as far inland as Angoon may see some
scattered shower activity again by Monday afternoon. Region wide,
precipitation will be ending Monday night as we head into a period
of northeasterly outflow and significantly colder temperatures. In
addition to steadily falling temperatures, Monday night will also
feature steadily increasing northerly winds. However, like the
falling temperatures, peak wind conditions will not occur until
Tuesday.

As what often happens during outflow conditions, skies will begin
to clear beginning tonight. While there will be some areas of
mostly cloudy skies associated with the scattered showers
tomorrow, by late Monday night, nearly all of Southeast Alaska
should be under mostly clear skies. In locations where light winds
prevail tonight and Monday night, expect at least some radiational
fog to form.

Previous forecast remains mostly on track, so changes today were
minimal. Updated PoP and QPF with GFS. Temperature adjustments
based on the National Blend and represents the biggest adjustment
to the forecast...colder by 3 to 6 degrees in some cases. Winds
over the north-south inner channels increased Monday night
heading into Tuesday in response to the expected strength of the
outflow gradient. Overall forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/ As of 10pm Saturday.
Models remain in good agreement through the extended forecast,
allowing for better than average forecaster confidence in a
developing "cold air outbreak" and dry weather for majority of
the coming week. High pressure will continue building over the
Yukon Tuesday, causing predominately N-NE outflow winds through
the inside waters. Low pressure south of the area with an inverted
trough extending north over the inside waters will cause a
tightening pressure gradient with the high pressure along the
Coast Mountains. This is a dry pattern for SE Alaska, so have
kept the POP forecast low through most of the week.

The Yukon high pressure will shift down into northern B.C.
Wednesday night through Thursday. This will shift the best outflow
to be more out of the eastern interior passes, including potential
for Taku winds. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move into
the northern gulf from the west Thursday night, increasing said
E-W pressure gradient. Snow is possible along the outer coast as
the low tracks SE on Friday. But more often than not, the high
pressure and dry air already in place wins out and the low should
have little impact.

The north wind looks to bring with it strong CAA. Models still
show 850mb temps falling to around -20C along the northern border
by Wednesday morning and to around -10C over the south. Have
continued the trend of lowering temps as a result. This cold air
will help to drive the wind through interior passes. Have kept
speeds elevated above most guidance for this reason and may still
need gale force speeds. The cold air and wind brings freezing
spray to the forecast for the first time this year as well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

Fritsch/Ferrin

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