Small Craft Advisory 486, NWS Juneau, AK

479 
FZAK51 PAJK 202341
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-211700-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low in the northern gulf will move to Prince William
Sound by Wednesday night. Another storm force low will move into 
the eastern Gulf from the south on Thursday night and then track 
up the outer coast through Fri evening. A second gale force low 
will track N through the central gulf late Fri night. 
 

$$

PKZ011-211700-
Glacier Bay-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-211700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-211700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 5 ft
early in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-211700-
Icy Strait-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft in the evening then 2 ft or 
less. Highest winds near Point Couverden. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-211700-
Cross Sound-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft late. Rain
in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-211700-
Stephens Passage-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-211700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Higher gusts near Point Couverden. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-211700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft
building to 12 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft building
to 16 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 13 ft, except
18 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-211700-
Frederick Sound-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-211700-
Sumner Strait-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 40 
kt late. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft late. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 7 ft building to 12 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 14 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-211700-
Clarence Strait-
341 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt late. Seas
7 ft building to 15 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

076 
FZAK51 PAJK 211215
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-220245-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low will move into the eastern Gulf from the south 
on Thursday night and track up the Outer Coast into Friday 
evening. A Gale force low will track northward through the eastern
Gulf Friday night into Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ011-220245-
Glacier Bay-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-220245-
Northern Lynn Canal-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-220245-
Southern Lynn Canal-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-220245-
Icy Strait-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-220245-
Cross Sound-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-220245-
Stephens Passage-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt increasing to SE wind 30 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 
ft or less.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-220245-
Northern Chatham Strait-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming N 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt increasing to SE wind 30 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2
ft or less.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-220245-
Southern Chatham Strait-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 4 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt 
late. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft
building to 17 ft late. S swell late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 22 ft 
subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-220245-
Frederick Sound-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NE 15 kt. Out of interior passes,
gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain in
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the 
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-220245-
Sumner Strait-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt.
Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft 
building to 14 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft, 
except 17 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-220245-
Clarence Strait-
415 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt late. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft 
building to 22 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S wind 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 20 ft 
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft, except 16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
645 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Thursday night as of 6AM/...A
weakening shortwave low is moving northwestward just off the
Outer Coast, bringing Gales to the eastern Gulf of Alaska, today,
while the front that has been lingering over the eastern Gulf
will gradually move inland and weaken, bringing with it chances
for rain over the majority of the Panhandle and chances for snow
with light accumulations on the Klondike Highway near White Pass
and the Haines Highway near Haines Border Customs. In addition to
the Gales, Strong Winds are in effect for land zones along the
outer coast as the low moves northwestward and gets near those
particular locations. This low is taking a very similar track to
the previous low center that moved through our area of
responsibility. The current one is just positioned a bit farther
to the east, closer to the coast. Significant accumulations of
rain are not expected with this shortwave and the frontal system
poised over the Panhandle due to the fast moving nature of the
Gale-force low over the Gulf and the weakening nature of the front
as it dies out over southeast Alaska. For the Inner Channel
waters, as with the previous two systems, stronger winds of Small
Craft to Gale-force with higher seas will be present near ocean
entrances as the tightest low gradient passes by those particular
areas.

After the shortwave and front move out of the area, it looks like
we will have a relatively short half-day or so lull period after
which a series of quick-moving stronger low pressure systems move
into the eastern Gulf and take a very similar track to the last
couple. It is looking like these systems will have more impactful
winds around the Outer Coast and eastern Gulf than the current
shortwave low and weakening front. The land winds and southern and
western Inner Channel winds look to be a bit higher with it,
potentially topping out at low-end storm, due to the low riding up
closer to the coast and it being stronger with a tighter pressure
gradient than the previous two systems.

Temperatures will be relatively mild and non-impactful through
the short-term forecast period as indicated by MOS guidance and
modestly positive 850mb temperature advection out ahead of these
approaching low pressure systems.

Overall, forecast confidence is above average for the short-term
due to good model agreement. Generally, only adjustments to the
temperature and wind grids were necessary. PoP, QPF, & Sky were
still on-track.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...The primary concern in
the earlier part of the long term forecast continues to be a
system which is progged to move N through the eastern gulf early
Friday. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect, although at
this time no other products have been issued.

The intensity of the anticipated shortwave continues to remain
less than certain. While operational GFS is persistent at
indicating 50 kt plus wind in Dixon Entrance, the southeast gulf,
and portions of the southern Panhandle; ensembles, while agreeing
geographically, are much less inclined to indicate such a deep
feature. Yet even so, some special credence needs to given to
operational runs, not least because of the much larger data sets
involved in their initial conditions. Consequently, chose to
further strengthen the winds associated with the system. While
keeping winds below storm force, widespread gales are anticipated
in the outer coastal waters and in the southern inner channels.
Winds were further increased as well in the southern panhandle,
with strong wind conditions expected across parts of the S
panhandle and outer gulf coast. Confidence in strength at this
stage prevents us from posting any kind of watch, so the special
weather statement suffices for now.

Towards Juneau, with a critical level in place, we could see some
stronger gusts set up in Downtown Juneau and Douglas Thursday
night/Friday ahead of any precip bands. As such a strong system
passes northwest along the coast, a safe bet is to swing winds
through the Inner Channels at least briefly from north to south
through Friday night.

Yet another storm appears behind the first, though considerable
differences in timing and strength continue, but it appears likely
that it will follow a similar path to the previous wave. Behind
this system, a break may be possible Sunday into Monday before the
active weather looks likely to resume.

Little changes were made across most other fields. The emerging
pattern favors wetter conditions across the south with somewhat
drier regions across the north as low level offshore winds add a
drying element to the atmosphere. Clearly any heavy rain trapped
in the North Pacific jet should remain to our south. With mean
southerly flow within the mid-range period, we expect temperatures
to be seasonal to above normal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-033>036-053.

&&

JLC/GFS

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