Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Juneau, AK

641 
FZAK53 PAJK 240033
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241845-
Yakutat Bay-
333 PM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Winds light. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

339 
FZAK53 PAJK 241257
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250700-
Yakutat Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

734 
FZAK53 PAJK 250047
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-251900-
Yakutat Bay-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 9 ft. SW 
swell.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft diminishing. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

863 
FZAK53 PAJK 251302
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-260715-
Yakutat Bay-
402 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. SW 
swell.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

648 
FZAK53 PAJK 260035
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-261845-
Yakutat Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
151 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

SHORT TERM.../Fri night through Sun/ The surface high pressure in
the Gulf will be pushed south by a trough associated with an
incoming low pressure from the NW on Sat. The upper-level jet
stream shifts south and 1000-850mb thicknesses are around or
below 1290m, aiding in the confidence for snowfall rather than
rain from Petersburg northward. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Southerly flow at 850mb will transport moisture
northward over the mountainous terrain, thus wringing out much of
the moisture in the atmosphere. Therefore, highest total QPF of
less than an inch will be along the outer coast and across the
south with lesser amounts further north and inland.

The bulk of the precipitation occurs from the early afternoon
hours Sat until Sat night, when precipitation rates will
decrease. The surface low in the gulf will weaken and depart the
area Sun with showers dimishing from NW to SE through the day.

Trended temperatures down a few degrees, into the lower 30s for
the N and upper 30s for the S. Lows will stay below freezing
across the panhandle. Winds continue to remain calm across most
land areas through the short-term.

Confidence is moderate to high regarding the short-term forecast.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/ As of 10pm Thursday. A
front and weakening low center will be departing the area Sunday
with showers diminishing from NW to SE through the day. For the
rest of the extended forecast, high pressure builds over the Yukon
causing predominately N winds through the inside waters. The main
forecast challenge will be timing of relatively weak low centers
passing through the gulf. The first low looks to skirt by Monday
night into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of rain and snow,
primarily along the outer coast. The second gulf low approaches
next Thursday. Outside of these two systems the forecast is
looking dry with potential for some sunshine. CAA with the north
wind will keep temperatures considerably cooler than the rest of
the month and even a bit below normal.

Models have differed from run-to-run on placement/timing of the lows
passing by. This will have the biggest impact on timing/strength of
peaks in outflow winds. Have included some 20kt northerlies through
the inside waters during the current tightest pressure gradient,
but these will likely need to be nudged up to Small Craft level if
the lows track closer/deeper and/or if the high pressure in
Canada is stronger.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051.

&&

CM/KRT/Ferrin

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