Small Craft Advisory 456, NWS Juneau, AK

420 
FZAK52 PAJK 062320
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-071730-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weather front approaching from the west tonight will move along
the Southeast Alaska Coast tonight and move inland Thu night. A 
second and stronger front is forecast to move east across the 
Gulf of Alaska Friday, and move inland on Saturday.

$$

PKZ041-071730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 KT becoming S in the evening, then
increasing to 35 KT late. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft late. Rain
late. 
.THU...SE wind 35 KT. Seas 12 FT. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 KT. Seas 8 FT. 
.FRI...S wind 30 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 KT. Seas 12 FT. 
.SAT...W wind 25 KT. Seas 17 FT. 
.SUN...W wind 20 KT. Seas 16 FT. 
.MON...NW wind 15 KT becoming S. Seas 15 ft subsiding to
10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-071730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 KT increasing to 35 KT late. Seas 5 ft
building to 11 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...SE wind 35 KT diminishing to 25 KT in the afternoon.
Seas 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 KT. Seas 8 FT. 
.FRI...S wind 30 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 KT. Seas 14 FT. 
.SAT...W wind 25 KT. Seas 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 KT. Seas 15 FT. 
.MON...W wind 15 KT becoming S. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-071730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 KT becoming SE 35 KT. Seas 5 ft building to
12 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 KT diminishing to 25 KT in the afternoon.
Seas 12 FT. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 KT becoming SW late. Seas 8 FT. 
.FRI...S wind 30 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 KT. Seas 15 FT. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 KT. Seas 18 FT. 
.SUN...W wind 15 KT. Seas 15 FT. 
.MON...SW wind 10 KT becoming SE 25 KT. Seas 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-071730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 KT increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft 
building to 12 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 KT diminishing to 20 KT in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 KT. Seas 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 KT diminishing to 15 KT. Seas 16 FT. 
.SUN...E wind 15 KT becoming W. Seas 13 FT. 
.MON...S wind 15 KT becoming SE 25 KT. Seas 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-071730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 KT. Seas 7 ft building to 11 FT. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 KT diminishing to 20 KT in the afternoon.
Seas 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. RaiN late. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 KT. Seas 8 FT. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 KT. Seas 15 FT. 
.SUN...E wind 10 KT becoming W. Seas 11 FT. 
.MON...S wind 15 KT becoming E 30 KT. Seas 6 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
234 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday morning/ Today was a very fine day
weatherwise for those that enjoy calm, sunny, fall days. This
morning was brisk due to the clear skies, with many areas seeing
morning temperatures below freezing. Some fog did develop,
specifically around Angoon, Petersburg, and Wrangell and
dissipated by late morning. This afternoon, weak sea breezes even
developed in the typical spots under the bountiful sun. The calm
weather is expected to continue through the night and into
Wednesday with tonight expected to be cooler than last night. Fog
is in the forecast once again for areas of the central panhandle.

The next front arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with
rain arriving in Yakutat first on Wednesday and then progressing
eastward. Juneau can expect precipitation starting in the early
morning hours of Thursday. The forecast timing looks on track so
little change to the existing PoP forecast. The winds were
adjusted upwards to low end gale force for the outside waters
based on good model agreement and the OPC forecast. Inner channel
winds were also adjusted upwards slightly, with small craft winds
expected for the ocean entrances in Cross Sound, Chatham Strait,
Sumner Strait, and Clarence Strait.

After the front passes through on Thursday, a brief weak ridge
passes over the panhandle, but with onshore flow at most levels,
showers will continue ahead of the next front scheduled to arrive
on Friday. Forecast confidence is above average for the short
term.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ A very
repetitive weather pattern sets up in the long term as multiple
systems push through SE AK through early next week. The general
pattern will feature a mix of weak troughs and ridges with small
breaks in between each system. The storm track remains across the
northern gulf with surface lows weakening sliding SE through the
region. Model and ensemble agreement is above average through the
weekend then drops off the first half of next week.

The first system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak
low in the northern gulf pushes a front into the Panhandle. Small
craft conditions develop along the Outer Coast and in the
Southern Panhandle while winds remain under 25 kt elsewhere. Light
rain overspreads the Panhandle late Wednesday night then turns to
a more showery pattern Thursday as the front moves through. A
brief break occurs Thursday night before the next system moves in
on Friday. Similar to the previous system, a low in the northern
gulf pushes a weak front into the Panhandle Friday. A westerly
onshore flow pattern sets up behind the front with showers
diminishing on Sunday evening. Another brief break in the rain is
possible Sunday as the low slides SE across the region and brief
ridging sets up in the gulf.

Another system pushes into the gulf for the first half of next
week however models and ensembles disagree on the exact track of
the low. Blended heavily with WPC during this time period which
uses a blend of the EC/GFS ensembles and the EC deterministic
model. A continuing trend of a low approaching the region then
sliding SE is a reasonable forecast for now. This pattern keeps
rain and showers around for most places.

Expect temperatures to remain at or slightly below normal through
the long term with persistent clouds and precipitation. Highs in
the 40s with lows in the upper 30s to near 40 will be common
across most places. Snow levels rise to or above 3000 ft ahead of
each front then fall back to around 2000-2500 ft as cold air
wraps around the backside of the systems. Portions of the Klondike
Highway may receive light snow accumulations with each passing
system; however expect P-type to remain liquid for areas near sea
level through the period.

Overall no major changes made to the long term forecast this
evening. Most systems will be weak and are not expected to
cause negative impacts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041.

&&

BFL/CM

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