Small Craft Advisory 443, NWS Juneau, AK

201 
FZAK53 PAJK 291200
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-300600-
Yakutat Bay-
400 AM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

040 
FZAK53 PAJK 292359
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-301800-
Yakutat Bay-
359 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and slight 
chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low has moved into the central gulf
bringing with it a frontal band that will push onshore tonight.
Ahead of this front, a brief drying trend has been observed across
the panhandle as we have a weak ridge over the inner channels.
This ridge is being displaced as our next weather system surges
onshore. Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving over the
panhandle slowly filling in any clearing that has occurred today.
Rain begins to move into the southern panhandle this evening along
with windy conditions. Small craft advisories for Southern
Chatham, Sumner, and Clarence Strait are posted through tonight.
Gale warnings are posted along the outside waters through tonight as
well. Over land, strong wind headlines, gusts to 40 mph, have been
posted for southern coastal areas including cities of Sitka, Craig,
Klawock, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. By Wednesday morning rain will
have blanketed across the southern panhandle. With the southern
placement of this low, areas across the north are expected to remain
on the dryer side as northerly flow impedes any significant rainfall
accumulations.

Wednesday night, a secondary low forms along the frontal boundary
of the parent low in the gulf. This will re-intensify winds and
rainfall across the southern panhandle. There is some uncertainty
with track of the secondary low. Confidence is high that the low
will enter Dixon Entrance but any shift to the north will allow
for higher winds across the south. For now, thinking is that the
low will track through Dixon Entrance with the highest winds
staying south of the AOR. Rainfall across the northern two thirds
of the panhandle will be significantly less than the south as
northerly flow keeps heaviest rainfall to the south Wednesday into
early Thursday. 36 hour rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be
expected across the south with less than 0.50 inches across the
northern and central panhandle. Temperatures through the short-
term remain seasonal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and
night time lows in the low to mid 40s.

...UPDATED...

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday as of 9 pm Monday...
Confidence is increasing in a strong storm force low to rapidly
intensify in the gulf Friday and Saturday. Widespread high end
storm force winds are becoming likely across all outercoast
waters. Across land areas, conditions are being monitored for the
potential threat of high winds during this time frame, winds
gusting to 60 mph. Widespread heavy rain is also expected through
this period as there will be deep subtropical moisture present.

Period begins with a complex low in the gulf with solutions
suggesting multiple perturbations rotating around the parent low.
This feature will get absorbed into the next low pressure system
moving out of the Bering into the gulf Fri. Ensemble solutions are
in fairly good agreement on the low moving settling near Prince
William Sound late Fri before gradually weakening. The biggest
spread lies in the strength of this low. MSLP minimums in mb range
from the upper 950s to low 990s early Sat. Ensembles show
standardized anomalies of +3-5 for low level winds with gales
expected for the gulf waters, SCA to near gales over the inner
channels and strong winds for land areas over the outer coast and
favored areas of the S panhandle Fri into Sat. The other impact
from this storm will be moderate to heavy precip to SE AK.
Although there is still some uncertainty as to where heaviest
precip will be focused with this system, this system will progress
from the NE gulf coast through the S panhandle through Sat. Storm
total rainfall of 1.5-4 inches are in the 1-2 year return
intervals. Given the active weather prior to this period will need
to continue monitoring the potential for flooding from this
system. Low over the NW gulf will gradually fill through the
weekend with several disturbances likely rotating around the
parent and ejecting into the AOR will maintain active weather
through the period. However, there are no signals at this time of
any one of these bringing more impactful weather to the region
than another, so trended towards WPC guidance heading into next
week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-051>053.

&&

CC/BC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

AKZ017>029-292315-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
303 PM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...CONFIDENCE GROWING IN LATE WEEK STORM...

After two systems affect the southern Panhandle, one Tuesday
night and another Wednesday night into early Thursday, there is
growing confidence in a stronger system for the end of the week.
Some uncertainty remains on the strength, track, and timing of
this complex system, but storm force winds over the gulf are
looking more likely.

Heavy rain with an atmospheric river type front begins Thursday
night over the northern gulf coast, then spreads over the rest of
the panhandle through Friday morning. A developing storm force low
then tracks into the gulf from the SW during Friday. This
continues the heavy rain across the region over the weekend and
elevates winds over the inside waters and land areas.

Potential impacts from this system include: flooding, high wind
gusts, high seas over the gulf, and a risk of landslides in prone
areas.

As confidence grows further, various weather bulletins may be
issued. Please stay alert for more information on expected weather
impacts through the weekend.