Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Juneau, AK

534 
FZAK53 PAJK 200037
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-201845-
Yakutat Bay-
337 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
13 ft late. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

218 
FZAK53 PAJK 201251
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-210700-
Yakutat Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

483 
FZAK53 PAJK 210042
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-211845-
Yakutat Bay-
342 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light. Seas
10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

435 
FZAK53 PAJK 211257
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-220700-
Yakutat Bay-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

727 
FZAK53 PAJK 220032
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Thu Jan 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-221845-
Yakutat Bay-
332 PM AKST Thu Jan 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft late. SW 
swell.
.FRI...NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

143 
FZAK53 PAJK 221309
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
409 AM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-230715-
Yakutat Bay-
409 AM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Wednesday night/...Southeast
Alaska is in the midst of a quick moving atmospheric river through
Tuesday morning from the frontal system that is currently moving
through the Panhandle. There is a deep healthy fetch of moisture
stretching all the way down to the south central Pacific with IVT
values up to 800 kg/m/s associated with the system. Luckily, since
this system is quick moving, storm total rainfall amounts should not
exceed 2.5 inches.

As stated, plenty of moisture is available. Temperatures are
currently and and are expected to remain below freezing for the
Klondike Highway area near White Pass for storm total snow amounts
up to 20 inches. Model thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures support
this idea. Therefore, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for that
area.

As for Winds, a High Wind warning is in effect through this evening
for areas along the outer coast and Juneau due to the strong low
level jet and a  tight pressure gradient between the system and a
ridge centered over British Columbia. Various strong winds over land
areas, gales, and small crafts over marine areas are in effect.
Winds will subside and the weather will calm down, in general, as
the storm system departs and a ridge begins building from the west
tomorrow afternoon and the gradient relaxes.

Tuesday into Wednesday, onshore flow begins to dominate as we enter
a more showery pattern. With the oncoming higher cloud ceilings,
decreasing cloudiness and light winds for the latter half of the
short term forecast period, patchy fog is expected along central and
southern inner channels Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ The
upper level pattern in the extended looks very different from what
we have been experiencing the last week or two. First off it is
noticeably less active with a Pacific storm track more focused on
the Bering Sea than the Gulf of Alaska. This is in large part due
to the second point which is there is more ridging over the Gulf
that will develop Wed into Fri. This ridge will not last as an
upper trough is still forecast to push the ridge east this
weekend, though the timing of that has slowed up a little
compared to yesterday.

Lower in the atmosphere, chances of rain still linger in the
panhandle on Wed, but diminish into Wed night as a low over the
gulf slides SE and weakens as it does. It will be the victim of
the building ridge over the gulf that will keep the panhandle
fairly dry into Fri. Precip returns by Fri night and Sat as the
next trough moves through the area. Forecast uncertainty is rather
high for the timing of the onset of precip from this feature
however, as the GFS wants to delay the precip until Sat afternoon
while the ECMWF has it come in as early as Fri evening.
Temperatures should be warm enough that most areas will be rain,
with the possible exception of the northern inner channels, but
precip amounts will be low as the system will have been weakened
from its fight with the ridge as it crossed the gulf. Following
this trough, guidance is still pointing toward a cold air
outbreak late weekend into early next week. It is a little delayed
from yesterday with not as much outflow expected until Mon at the
earliest now, but if it persists in future runs, it will be some
of the coldest air we have seen yet this year.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ020-021-024.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-025.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041-042-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021.

&&

JLC/EAL

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