Small Craft Advisory 438, NWS Juneau, AK

448 
FZAK53 PAJK 262333
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-271745-
Yakutat Bay-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

490 
FZAK53 PAJK 271151
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-280600-
Yakutat Bay-
351 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 5 ft in the morning
then 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft late. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

462 
FZAK53 PAJK 272325
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-281730-
Yakutat Bay-
325 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell late. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...Currently in a bit of a lull of an otherwise fairly
active weather pattern with some isolated showers still moving
over the region, a stark contrast to the widespread and sometimes
heavy rain of the previous day and a half. Winds have also come
down quite a bit with only a few small craft advisories in effect
due to seas along the coastal waters. Some clearing expected
mainly in the southern portions of the panhandle this evening
could potentially lead to fog tonight, mainly in the same
locations where it formed late Friday/early Saturday. Clearing may
be short lived though as a wave could briefly introduce slightly
increased chances for rain in those same locations tonight. Our
next frontal system moves in from the west Sunday. This occluded
system will initially move south of the panhandle before taking a
northward track. This type of movement will set up some outflow
over the northern part of the region which could lead to the
skies opening up and potentially seeing some sun before the areal
extent of the impacts of the low reach those areas. While this
system does not look to be near the rainmaker the previous one
was, areas of the southern panhandle could easily get an inch of
rain out of this over the duration of the event. Areas from around
Juneau and north though may not struggle to get a quarter of an
inch, with the current forecast actually having the precip just
barely missing Yakutat. Winds currently are not forecast to reach
gale force but small craft advisories along the coast are entirely
possible. Also, probably shouldn't rule out small crafts through
Lynn Canal considering the pressure gradient between the
encroaching low and the high pressure stationed over the interior
and the Yukon.

.LONG TERM.../Monday Through Saturday night/...The long term
portion of the forecast begins with a 500mb trough over SE AK and
low pressure center at the surface near Haida Gwaii. Through
Monday and Monday night, this trough and low pressure center is
projected to move northeast and weaken. This pattern would put
the best chance for rain in the southern part of the panhandle
while the north would have a smaller chance for rain. Rain totals
for the south would be around a half inch while the central and
north get around a tenth to a third of an inch.

Brief ridge on Tuesday would bring decreasing rain chances and
thinning clouds. Current forecast is calling for most of the
panhandle to see partly to mostly cloudy skies but there is a good
amount of model ensemble agreement that the Yakutat area could
start Tuesday with clear to mostly clear skies before clouds build
in later in the afternoon.

Tuesday afternoon into Thursday (mid-week) is the rough time
frame for the next low to move into the gulf. This low would bring
more rain to the panhandle. Early rain estimates are around 1 to
3 inches with some evidence for localized amounts up to 5 inches
in the south. But since these are early estimates, confidence is
low.

After that low fades out, there is early evidence of another low
that would move into the gulf Friday and last into the weekend.

Winds are expected to pick up with each passing low. If the
timing of these lows stay true, Monday's winds would be strongest
early in the day with decreasing winds through the afternoon.
Strongest winds would be in the gulf and in Lynn Canal at around
15 to 30 knots. Tuesday’s brief ridge would calm the wind down
but the mid-week low would pick those winds right back up.
Current forecast has coastal winds getting up to 25 to 35 knots as
the low moves in Tuesday and Wednesday. Inner channel winds look
to get to near 15 to 25 knots on Wednesday before weakening on
Thursday.

Temperatures next week look unremarkable with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-041>043.

&&

JDR/GJS

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