Small Craft Advisory 424, NWS Juneau, AK

303 
FZAK52 PAJK 211149
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220600-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low over the N gulf will weaken through Wednesday.
A storm force low moves N across the central gulf towards Prince 
William Sound pushing a front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 

$$

PKZ041-220600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the morning. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas
18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt.
Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

220 
FZAK52 PAJK 212334
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221745-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low over the N gulf will move into the southern 
Yukon Tue night before weakening Wed. A new storm force low moves 
N across the Western gulf towards Prince William Sound pushing a 
front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 

$$

PKZ041-221745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt late.
Seas 9 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt late.
Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 7 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 6 ft building to 16 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt. Seas
23 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 21 ft subsiding to
14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

663 
FZAK52 PAJK 221151
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-230600-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low over the N gulf will weaken through  Wed. A new
storm force low moves N across the western gulf  towards Prince
William Sound pushing a front through the panhandle Thu into
Fri.  

$$

PKZ041-230600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft
building to 15 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-230600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 10 ft
building to 17 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-230600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 10 ft
building to 18 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-230600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 16 ft late. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-230600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 7 ft
building to 15 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers
in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday / Low Tracking northeast over
the gulf toward Cape Suckling area by Tuesday afternoon. The main
generally through much of panhandle by this evening, but enough
rain to keep calling it rain, although a transitions to showers in
the gulf to the coast on Tuesday. The trailing part of the
original front extends southeast from Northern British Columbia
out to the east Pacific.

Models suggestion that about the main low that sufficient
instability that have put in isolated thunder over the marine
waters, to the coastline roughly from Yakutat to Sitka for
tonight and early Tuesday morning. Expect that showers into
Wednesday to start tapering off as a ridge builds across the gulf
into the panhandle.

Wednesday looks to our weather break as we have new even stronger
front moving to the western gulf Wednesday and that will be out
excitement for Thursday. On a side point, some of the cooler air
that has been around may lower the snow levels enough that some
light snow may fall at White Pass on the Klondike Highway, by late
Wednesday and early Thursday morning. The successive storms and
the depth of them inbound and tracking through the gulf is prove
Fall is here, and the White Pass forecast is proclaiming winter is
coming.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday night/...The extended
period will be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as robust low pressure systems move through
the Gulf and into the panhandle. There will be a short period of
calmer weather Wednesday into Thursday as a broad upper level
ridge helps keep the primary rain producer the continuing onshore
flow in the lower levels rather than organized systems. Cold air
advection filtering into the panhandle behind the Monday/Tuesday
system will also see nippy temperatures in some areas, and it is
looking possible that parts of the highways like White Pass may
see a bit of snow Wednesday night. This state of affairs will not
last for long as an upper level trough displaces the ridge and
marches across the gulf. Its surface reflection, a strong frontal
system and associated low, will bring with it abundant wind and
rain to the area. Although models continue to disagree on the
exact location and strength of the parent low, they have come into
decent agreement on the gale force front entering the panhandle
on Thursday. This system will continue to impact the area through
at least Friday, before rain gradually diminishes Saturday and
Sunday. There are some indications that offshore flow could become
predominant in the lower levels on Sunday, which would lead to a
brief period of drier weather before another possible system
arrives. However, it is still too far in the future to forecast
any breaks after the Thursday system arrives with a substantial
degree of certainty, especially given that ensemble members are
increasingly diverging by this time period. Guidance remained in
decent agreement through Thursday, before increasingly diverging
as the weekend looms.

&&

.AVIATION...Low level wind shear for some coastal sites as low
level jet passes across the panhandle, this would also have
turbulence near rough terrain. Expect ceilings of 1000 to 3000
feet for much of southeast alaska in the rain into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force wind for the outer waters near the coast,
small craft for the winds. South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming
westerly by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Periods of moderate to locally heavy rains tonight
into early Tuesday for the southern panhandle. Similar but not as
much for northern portion of the panhandle. Flooding not
anticipated, however this front will be priming soils and increase
streams slightly higher. Next front Thursday will have more
issues to watch.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-053.

&&

Bezenek/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
102 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

AKZ017>029-212300-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
102 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...WET AND WINDY WEEK AHEAD...

A parade of storms will move through the panhandle this week
bringing multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. Each
system will be accompanied with small craft to gale force winds
along the gulf coast and inner channels.

Rainfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches can be expected for each
system. River rises will occur as early as mid week with some
locations reaching bankfull.

Although multiple storm systems are expected through the week,
there will be brief respites on Wednesday and Saturday.