Small Craft Advisory 419, NWS Juneau, AK

381 
FZAK52 PAJK 181133
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-190545-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low in the gulf will be absorbed into a new system 
near Haida Gwaii Saturday. A ridge will build over the panhandle 
Sunday before a gale force front moves in on Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-190545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-190545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 7 ft late. W 
swell.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding
to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-190545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding
to 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-190545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-190545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

308 
FZAK52 PAJK 182348
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191800-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low near Haida Gwaii will dissipate by Sunday 
morning. A ridge will build over the panhandle Sunday before a 
gale force front moves in on Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-191800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 8 ft.
W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft diminishing late. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
Rain late. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft. 

$$

724 
FZAK52 PAJK 191148
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200600-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weak ridge will move across the panhandle Sunday before a gale
force front moves across the gulf into the panhandle Monday into
Tuesday. A low over the N gulf will gradually weaken through mid
week before another gale force low moves into the SE gulf
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-200600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas building to 9
ft. W swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the 
morning.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the 
morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. W swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft. Rain
late. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Sunday / Upper level trough over the
eastern half of the gulf and the panhandle will be lifted into
western Canada Saturday morning. A dirty flat ridge will spread
east Saturday into Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis being pushed
through the panhandle Sunday night. A moderate upper low in the
trough moves from the central Aleutians to the western gulf Sunday
evening. Between the ridge and this low a strong southwest flow
is aimed at the panhandle.

Weakening low near Haida Gwaii Friday will weaken and either
dissipate or move into British Columbia through early Saturday.
Showers should be primarily limited the southern third of the
panhandle or near coast mountains north to Juneau or so as the
showers run north over the panhandle or work across from Canada
headed towards the gulf. The Northeast Gulf Coast expected to stay
dry and the northern panhandle trending that way Saturday to
Sunday.

The flat ridge through the weekend will keep clouds and may try to
add isolated showers to the western coastal area but have not
added those to the forecast. Incoming system to the western gulf
Sunday night will be spreading its front to the central gulf sun
night and the outer coastal waters Monday morning. The formed
triple point on this front right now seems to be tracking near
Dixon entrance.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/...This extended
range forecast begins with broad upper ridge moving east across
the Gulf of Alaska and a deepening upper low south of the
Aleutians. The low will displace the upper ridge east into British
Columbia on Monday and put Southeast Alaska on the colder north
side of the jet stream through the middle of the week. The upper
low will devolve into an open trough by Monday night and then
become a much more broad feature over the far northern Gulf as a
northern jet stream merges with the prevailing polar jet by
Wednesday, then get ejected to the east by the next upper
ridge/trough pair in the second half of the week. The strength of
the Polar jet definitely has a wintertime appearance to in, both
in terms of its strength (as much as 170 kts), width, and span
across the entirety of the northern Pacific. In fact, a well
defined Polar jet (based on isotachs) encircles the entire
northern hemisphere at high latitudes.

At the surface, showers from the weather system currently
affecting Southeast Alaska will still be lingering over the
forecast area at the start of this long range forecast period. By
Sunday night, a front will have entered the central Gulf and be
making rapid progress to the east and rain will be moving inland
by early Monday morning. The parent low will be occluded by the
time precip reaches the coast or soon thereafter and southeasterly
gales are expected over the coastal marine zones. The front will
have a strong sub-tropical connection to moisture extending to the
very low latitudes of the western Pacific. In other words,
confidence is above average that Southeast Alaska will see heavy
precipitation Monday through Monday night, possibly through
Tuesday afternoon. This system is still several days away, so we
have plenty of time to watch for model inconsistencies, but model
agreement at the moment is quite good. Overnight lows are still
too warm to support any snow at lower elevations, but snow on the
mountains seems highly likely before the warm sector arrives on
Monday evening. Colder low level air will move in behind the front
on Wednesday which will drive the snow level down before showers
diminish, but still not down to sea level.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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