Small Craft Advisory 415, NWS Juneau, AK

219 
FZAK53 PAJK 161153
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 AM AKDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-170600-
Yakutat Bay-
353 AM AKDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 
ft in the afternoon. S swell in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
15 ft. S swell. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
S swell in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 

$$

848 
FZAK53 PAJK 170004
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 PM AKDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-171815-
Yakutat Bay-
404 PM AKDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
11 ft building to 15 ft. SW swell early in the evening. Rain in
the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the evening.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

987 
FZAK53 PAJK 171145
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-180545-
Yakutat Bay-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

020 
FZAK53 PAJK 172313
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-181715-
Yakutat Bay-
313 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Friday night / A short wave at 500 mb
near the west central Aleutians this afternoon will track east-
southeast deepening into a long wave trough just east of 140W by
early Friday morning to just off shore the panhandle and Haida Gwaii
Friday night.

Scattered showers tonight across the northern panhandle likely
increasing through the evening as incoming front approaches,
although the southern portion of the panhandle will be seeing less
precipitation overnight. An upper 980s mb low near Kodiak Island
will weaken and drift south through Thursday and Thursday night. The
associated front spreads across the gulf, although there will be a
triple point forming near 53N on the front and this will change the
shape of the front focusing the front over the southern panhandle
and limiting rain for the northern portion through much of Friday.

Most models are rolling the triple point low north to be west of
Prince of Wales Island or Cape Decision on early Friday and with
the this orientation, expect slight chance rain to dry weather
for the Yakutat to Skagway. The front over the southern panhandle
will move north to the northern portion of the panhandle through
Friday night.

With the front incoming, have have boosted most outer coast
marine zones to Gale force as the front approaches. Could see
gusts to 35 mph for some of the exposed locales around the
panhandle. Confidence is fair to good with Thursday front, not as
high as it could since we shifted the track a bit today.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/
Uncertainty in the start of the long range forecast due to
potential frontogenesis along the front in the eastern gulf. The
question is will the original low in the NE gulf remain intact
and be the driving force into the weekend or will the developing
low grab energy from the NE low and now the main feature becomes
centered in the SE Gulf. The split solution will either keep
precip over most of the panhandle or with the SE Gulf low have
more off shore flow to the north and an earlier drying trend.
Along with uncertain precip, the location of higher winds is also
in question. Models then fall in line for the weekend with where
ever the Gulf low starts it will eventually track to the SE with a
high pressure ridge moving in behind it. This will usher in a
short weather break for SE AK, with driest weather likely Sunday.
Next gale force low/front moves in Monday with periods of moderate
rain likely. Still timing and location details to be worked out
on this system as well.

Ensembles were in better agreement than operational models at 500
mb level but this basically keeps a broad low over the gulf. At
the surface pretty much pick a model and get something different
until Saturday. GFS has the low center deeper and further to the
SE while ECMWF was weakest and the the east while NAM/Canadian
were mid way between the two. Forecast solution for now was to
hold off, leave grids as is, keep a with a broad brush approach,
and lean toward WPC until specifics can get worked out as,
hopefully, models fall in line. Needless to say forecast
confidence is low.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053.

&&

Bezenek/PRB

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