Small Craft Advisory 407, NWS Juneau, AK

463 
FZAK52 PAJK 112306
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-121715-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Area of low pressure will dissipate as it moves over the 
panhandle Saturday night. A brief ridge will develop for Sunday 
before another front moves in late Sunday and Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-121715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-121715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-121715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to
12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-121715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-121715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
306 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt becoming SW late. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

783 
FZAK52 PAJK 121153
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130600-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Weak surface ridge builds through the inner channels Sunday. A
gale force front moves through the gulf and into the panhandle
Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-130600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 9 
ft. Rain late.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-130600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 9 
ft. Rain late.
.MON...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-130600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 11
ft. Rain late.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain in the morning, then slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-130600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas building
to 12 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain in the morning, then slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-130600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
353 AM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt becoming SW late. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the morning, then
slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

067 
FZAK52 PAJK 122333
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131745-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front crosses the Gulf of Alaska Sunday night and
moves ashore Monday. A ridge of high pressure follows into
Southeast Alaska Monday evening and persists through Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-131745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 
11 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 
12 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 13 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then 
slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Showers late. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft late. Showers late. 
.MON...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning,
then slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers late. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 PM AKDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain in the morning, then slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
228 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...The area of low pressure
spinning in the gulf will continue to spin while moving towards
the coast. This will keep rain showers in the forecast for
tonight.

Saturday, the low will move southeast so showers will more likely
be found in the south while the northern half will see isolated
or scattered showers. Some thunder is possible around Prince of
Wales island Saturday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts through
Saturday are around a half inch to an inch and a half with locally
higher amounts.

Saturday night, the low will weaken as it moves onshore so the
north will dry out while the south will see showers becoming
isolated or scattered in nature.

On Sunday, another low will begin to track along southern Alaska.
This low will push another front into the panhandle, bringing
another round of rain and strong winds. Current timing of the
front puts the strongest winds, around 20 to 30 mph, in the gulf
during the day and along the coast Sunday night.

Sunday's forecast for the panhandle isn’t looking too bad with
isolated to scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies and
generally light winds around 5 to 10 mph.

Temperatures will continue to be unremarkable with highs in the
50s to near 60s and lows in the 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM.../Sun through Fri as of 10 pm Thu/ Upper level
pattern for the long range has not changed all that much from
yesterday. A broad upper trough remains over Alaska and the Bering
Sea area with general SW flow over the panhandle through mid next
week. An upper low in the Bering Sea is still expected to drift E
into interior Alaska early next week, though the timing of
individual waves rotating around the upper low is still somewhat
uncertain for early to mid next week. Toward the end of the
extended period that upper low looks to break up and more zonal
flow takes over, but the timing is rather uncertain at this time.

At the surface, the next front will just be starting to move into
the area. Timing of this front has changed compared to yesterday
with guidance slowing it down to the point that it hits the
panhandle more on Mon afternoon rather then in the early morning.
Expected winds and rain have not changed compared to yesterday
except for the timing. Still expecting 20 to 30 kt winds for the
gulf waters and 15 to 20 kt winds for many inner channel areas.
As for Rain most of it is still aimed at the NE gulf coast.
Expect around 1.5 inches of rain there with lower amounts the
farther SE you go.

After Mon, forecast confidence starts to suffer as different
models have different ideas on how to handle the various short
waves that are wrapping around the upper low over the state and
how the upper low eventually breaks down. There are a few possible
systems that could effect the panhandle mid to late next week,
but there is no confidence on when or how strong they will be
(there are some indication of something coming through Tue night
and Wed, but there is little agreement on what form it will take).
What is more confident is that SW to W onshore flow will prevail
over the panhandle overall, and we are expected to remain wet for
most of the extended period (with the occasional storm). In
addition confidence is increasing on cooler air starting to move
into the area from Tue onward. 850 mb temps over the northern half
of the panhandle are expected to be near 0C. This has resulted in
the lowering of temperatures for mid next week by around 5
degrees (northern panhandle highs near 50 now rather then the mid
50s) and snow levels in the mountains will likely be dropping from
around 6000 feet to around 3700 feet over the north by Wed.
Combined with the damp conditions still around, this may result in
some snow showing up on mountain peaks mid next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>036-041-042-053.

&&

GJS/EAL

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