Small Craft Advisory 395, NWS Juneau, AK

603 
FZAK52 PAJK 051117
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-060530-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 West to SoutWest flow will persist on Sunday followed by a brief
ridge building over the inner channels on Monday. A gale force 
low moves northward into the eastern gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-060530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-060530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-060530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers early in the morning,
then slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-060530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-060530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

337 
FZAK52 PAJK 052337
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-061745-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
SW to S flow persists into Sunday night. A brief ridge will
build over the inner channels on Monday, then shifts northward.
A gale force low tracks northward across the outside waters
toward southern Baranof Island Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-061745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-061745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-061745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 6 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-061745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE late. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-061745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
216 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis show the
anticipated low pressure system moving N from Haida Gwaii and into
the panhandle as of the time of writing. The precipitation shield
associated with the low has moved slightly faster than
anticipated, and will likely bring rain across nearly all of the
area through the overnight hours. Skagway and Haines may see
precipitation arrive later than other areas as offshore flow acts
as a barrier to the worst of conditions. Much of the precipitation
associated with this low will also be convective in nature, and
heavy rain may be possible at times across the central and southern
panhandle.

Sunday will see abundant showers across the region as well as the
possibility of the occasional thunderstorm across much of the
area S of Juneau. Conditions don't look quite as favorable as they
did previously, but CAPE and marginal LI values continue to
indicate that the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out. A weak shortwave will pass through the S panhandle
on Sunday yielding additional rain, but do not expect anything
too impressive from it at this time.

Monday is increasingly shaping up to be a forecast challenge.
Operational and ensemble runs alike have consistently indicated
the presence of a broad low in the gulf at this time, but have
struggled to pinpoint its exact location. This has made
forecasting the resulting wind speeds and the PoP and QPF a tricky
prospect. More recent runs have trended towards keeping the system
further offshore, which would significantly lower associated
rainfall and wind speed with the system in SE. However, this is
not yet set in stone, and it cannot yet be ruled out that the
system chooses to take a more Easterly track which brings it far
closer to the panhandle.

Wind directions over the inner channels will switch N-S as each
system approaches and moves through the panhandle. Wind speeds in
the inner channels will likely reach between 15-20 kt, with no
substantial wind concerns for the offshore waters until the
Monday/Tuesday low. Temperatures will remain fairly moderate,
though occasional breaks in the clouds in areas with more
offshore flow could lead to warmer than progged high temperatures.
Forecaster confidence is below average.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday /
Longwave trough aloft over the Gulf of Alaska, shifts to a closed
low over the eastern gulf by Tuesday morning and by Thursday
morning the residual trough moving through the panhandle. Post
Wednesday there is some consistency issues across the models,
specifically on timing. The 500 mb flow pattern has a ridge
building over the eastern gulf and panhandle with another
shortwave moves from south of the Aleutians that moves into the
Gulf of Alaska through Thursday night. Into the weekend the flow
is more zonal in look and the packing of the thickness would hint
at a quick flow of troughs over the gulf, making timing of
features difficult.

For the surface weather a continued onshore flow pattern aloft so
scattered showers will linger through Monday. Potentially
beginning to taper off in advance of the low moving northeast
into the gulf. Expect to see rain and wind to spread into the
southeast gulf and panhandle Monday night and then to central
panhandle Tuesday.

The long mid to long range portions of the models are still
slightly spread apart and the WPC solution, continues to run
through the center of them. On of the differences 24 hours has
done was a moderating of the low depth. Have blended some of the
03/18z GFS in for the Tuesday and Wednesday, and this brought wind
speeds up a tough for the marine waters, also fine tuned the
inside marine and land winds a touch, though these will likely be
fine tuned again tomorrow.

Winds for Tuesday to Gale force along the panhandle and added
winds to 25 kt for some of the marine channels. PoPs got bumped up
as well, mainly for the panhandle as the low looks to move inland
over the central panhandle.

For end of the week with the lower confidence in the models, kept
a generally wet onshore pattern and chance to to likely PoPs for
any of the rainfall. At present there doesn't seem to be good
agreement for a significant feature at the end of next week. So
winds back to a more normal 10 to 20 kt generally for the marine
area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-042.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

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