Small Craft Advisory 391, NWS Juneau, AK

476 
FZAK52 PAJK 030155
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-032000-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of low pressure will move into the SE gulf from the SW
Thursday night, then track north through the inside waters
Friday morning with building high pressure behind it. Another
low will approach the Dixon Entrance area from the SW early
Saturday, then weaken as it progresses NE over the southern 
panhandle through Saturday night. 

$$

PKZ041-032000-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. Slight chance
of thunderstorms well offshore beyond 50 nm from shore. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. SW 
swell late. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-032000-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. Slight chance
of thunderstorms beyond 50 nm from shore. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-032000-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening diminishing to 20 kt. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the morning. Seas 7 ft. 
SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-032000-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the 
evening. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the evening. Rain. Slight chance 
of thunderstorms beyond 50 nm from shore. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the afternoon.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-032000-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
555 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell shifting to
the SW. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms beyond 50 nm from
shore. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

125 
FZAK52 PAJK 031158
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-040600-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low will move through the inside waters Friday 
morning. Another low will approach the Dixon Entrance area from 
the SW Saturday, then weaken as it moves across the S panhandle 
through Saturday night. Active weather continues with another wave
Sunday followed by a gale force low moving through the SE gulf 
Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-040600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 10 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft
subsiding to 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-040600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-040600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-040600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-040600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
358 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...The bulk of today's initial front has pushed
through, but multiple small short-wave troughs along the front are
causing occasional increases in wind/rain. One of these troughs
is causing moderate rain over the southern panhandle as of this
writing and the next trough will follow a similar path late
tonight into Friday morning. Ahead of tonight's trough, the
northern inner channels may see winds become lighter/variable,
then expect a surge of southerly winds to follow the trough as it
tracks northward through Friday afternoon.

A new low pressure center will track east across the north Pacific
through Friday night, then N-NE toward the southern panhandle on
Saturday. This low will again focus majority of the rainfall over
the southern third of the region while the northern half gets a
reprieve for Saturday, although cannot remove all POP, but any
rain that does fall should be on the light side.

Low track differences for Saturday, while small on the SE Alaska
scale, are big enough to affect wind directions on the inside. Some
models have the low tracking along the outer coast of POW while
others have it tracking through Clarence Strait. However, all
models have the low quickly weakening to an open trough late
Saturday night with a wind shift to the W-SW.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through next Thursday/ A buckle in the
North Pacific jet well upstream should reach the southeast Gulf of
Alaska by Friday night/Saturday morning. The implied shortwave,
supported by both main ensembles as well as operational runs,
should induce a stronger surface low just offshore of Southeast
on Saturday. Therefore we lead off with these changes, especially
in regard to winds offshore of Prince of Wales Island and the
southern Inner Channels including Ketchikan. This should be
sufficient to make for some breezy conditions on Prince of Wales
and Ketchikan. It is too early to say if gusts will be
significant, but we did raise wind speeds for these locations to
10 to 20 mph from the southeast and added near gale force winds
along the American-Canadian maritime border. In addition, we
bumped rainfall amounts upward across the southern and central
Panhandle with this system, given staunch southerly flow and solid
forcing ahead of it. Convective parameters like lapse rates were
not impressively high, as there will be some warm air advection
ahead of the short- wave feature. Therefore, we continue the
stratiform wording and push convection later into the weekend.

This system lifts northward and brings a bit stronger southerlies
with it as ridging takes hold later in the weekend, chiefly
Sunday and Sunday night. Thus, we raised wind speeds through Lynn
Canal, Juneau and Skagway during this time as well. Rain should
increase across the northern Panhandle later Saturday as the
system passes northward across Southeast as well. However the
southern Panhandle will endure the heavier rainfall.

Yet another wave looks to aim for the southern Panhandle early
next week, which would mean a wetter Labor Day for Petersburg and
southward, especially in the afternoon and Monday night. Given
this, we reduced pop for the north, but cannot remove the chances
of rain completely. Deeper into the week, continued southwest to
west flow will keep September's place as one of the wettest
months in Southeast Alaska true to its nature as rain is likely
for much of the Panhandle into mid-week. But as stated yesterday,
we have little evidence or confidence in any impactful atmospheric
river, so rainfall amounts may in some cases come in below
average for this time of year when measured day by day. With
cloudy skies, we expect high temperatures to be normal to slightly
below normal at times with low temperatures to be warmer than
normal for only small diurnal changes between mornings and
afternoons. There is some mean anticyclonic curvature of the mean
ensemble solutions for late next week. Therefore, despite overall
onshore flow, we have lowered the probability of rain to a chance.
Likewise, solutions have lowered snow levels below 6K feet, which
is somewhat suggestive that cooler air may filter into our region
from the Alaska Mainland. However, confidence is low.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

Ferrin/JWA

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