Small Craft Advisory 387, NWS Juneau, AK

889 
FZAK53 PAJK 021151
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030600-
Yakutat Bay-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

362 
FZAK53 PAJK 022354
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-031800-
Yakutat Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Sep 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming variable. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
234 PM AKDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday/ Another round of morning fog and
low clouds has given way to another nice day across the panhandle,
though a change in the weather is looming. High clouds are
streaming over the most of the panhandle and the NE gulf coast is
already overcast with mid level clouds from the next front. Winds
are starting to increase in the northern gulf (up to 25 kt at the
Cape Suckling buoy) and radar and satellite rain rate products
are showing rain in the central gulf starting to approach the
nearshore waters along the outer coast.

Short range forecast is still looking wet and a little windy as a
gale force front moves into the panhandle Wed night into Thu and
then a new short wave moves into the southern panhandle late Thu
night. Most areas in the panhandle will likely start to see rain
by Thu morning at least. This is an increase in timing of the
onset of rain by about 3 to 6 hours from what was previously
forecast. From Wed night through Fri night total rainfall will
likely be around 1.5 to 2.5 inches. That will mostly be
concentrated on the outer coast (particularly Yakutat) Thu, which
will switch to the southern panhandle for Fri as the next short
wave moves in. Rain rates are not expected to breach any longer
return intervals and the panhandle has had a chance to dry out
over the last few days so rivers are low and soils have had a
chance to drain a bit. So while rivers are expected to rise with
the return of rain, no flooding is expected at this time.

As for winds, gale force winds are expected in the northern gulf
tonight with 25 to 30 kt winds for the rest of the gulf. Lighter
winds are expected in the inner channels as the front will be
weakening as it comes. Most inner channel areas will likely see 20
kt at most Thu into Thu night (exception is Clarance Strait where
a brief period of 25 kt is possible late Thu night). Otherwise
winds will calm down into Fri and Fri night as the significant
features move off into Canada leaving us with onshore flow into
the weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through next Wednesday/ Little has become
clearer in the extended forecast. To glean information purely from
the raw synoptic long- wave pattern, an upper low enters the Gulf
of Alaska from Bristol Bay Friday into Saturday. Cooler air
follows and turns precipitation more showery on Friday.
Baroclinicity persists across the North Pacific jet just to the
south and with a rush of Bering Sea cool air entering the gulf,
one such north Pacific wave could grow into something to take note
of. As we can figure now, it could edge in some heavier rains
Friday night/Saturday morning for Annette Island and Ketchikan.
But for now most of the energy looks to remain south on Haida
Gwaii and the north BC Coast.

As this system retreats into Canada, a long period of onshore
showers persists across the region with cooler than normal high
temperatures but near normal low temperatures. Resolution of any
impulses that impact weather trends is mainly absent beyond this
weekend. But given the west to southwest flow aloft, it is safe
to assume that rain in some way or form will be in the forecast.
And should the trough axis shift at snail's pace from the western
gulf to the eastern gulf as ensembles suggest through next week,
that would help keep the onslaught of atmospheric rivers either
well to our west along the western shores of the Gulf of Alaska or
just to our south for our friends along the BC Coast. Thus,
although our forecast is wet, rainfall amounts may run slightly
below normal as the calendar sits squarely within our wet season.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041-042-053.

&&

EAL/JWA

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