Small Craft Advisory 383, NWS Juneau, AK

473 
FZAK52 PAJK 290008
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291815-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure will linger in the NE gulf and slowly weaken Sunday.
Outlook. High pressure will build over the central gulf Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-291815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early
in the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in
the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in
the evening. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
408 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

227 
FZAK52 PAJK 291207
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300615-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure will linger in the NE gulf and slowly weaken
Sunday. High pressure will build over the central gulf Sunday
night through Monday causing a shift to NWLY flow. A W to SW
swell will persist over the outside waters. 

$$

PKZ041-300615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to W 10 kt. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
407 AM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light and
variable. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

667 
FZAK52 PAJK 292355
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301800-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Lower pressure dissipates in the NE Gulf Sunday evening. High 
pressure builds over the central gulf Sunday night through 
Wednesday.


$$

PKZ041-301800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming NW 10 kt 
late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft
building to 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
355 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Lows are moving into the eastern gulf and rain is
spreading into the forecast area. Yakutat already seeing some rain
and reduced visibilities. Radar showing the rain for the majority
of the panhandle just off shore about 30 to 70 miles and getting
closer.

Timing and amounts of rain fall seem to be close to what was in
the forecast earlier so only minor changes to the forecast. Will
continue to monitor if items become harsher than anticipated.

Winds with the system tonight and early Saturday resulting in
Gales and Small Craft hazards for the Marine zones. Coastal areas
and inner channels have some Strong Wind headlines posted as the
front moves through too.

Main front will move through briskly, and expect a quick change
from stratiform to convective weather. Have keep the slight chance
of thunder in the forecast for the SE gulf and into the southern
panhandle Saturday afternoon to evening. Even with out the thunder
in the forecast the flow will keep showers Saturday night to
Sunday a large portion of the low from the northeast gulf coast
will move southeast and this will sweep out much of the shower
activity Sunday and Sunday night.

Lighter winds, breaks in the clouds and wet ground mean that
patchy fog could be an issue for fog development.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10PM Thursday/...At the
onset of the forecast period, the once gale force low will
continue to weaken and move southeastward before eventually
dissolving into the general flow. This will give way to a ridging
pattern over the eastern Gulf. As one may suspect, ridging should
lead to decreased clouds and lesser chances for precip, and this
pattern looks to hold on for much of the work week. A slackening
pressure gradient around the ridge will also help to tame the
winds for the bulk of the week. These conditions could be ripe for
fog, however still a bit too far out to determine how dry
conditions will be whether or not to confidently add it into the
forecast. CPC currently has the region trending to just above
normal temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook. Likely will see this
translate to slightly above normal daytime highs and near normal
overnight lows. By Wednesday evening, our next frontal system
should begin moving in on the region from the west. Rain could
begin in Yakutat as early as Wednesday night, but do not really
expect PoPs to increase for the rest of the panhandle until
Thursday. Still too premature to speculate on precip amounts,
particularly since some model guidance has this system falling
apart before it would have any sort of impact on SEAK. A blend
favoring the GFS/ECMWF was preferred and then phased into WPC
guidance for continuity.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions this afternoon before
deteriorating heading into the evening as mdt- hvy precip advects
into the region. LL winds along the front will result in LLWS
along with mechanical turbulence tonight into Sat morning.
Increasing instability behind the front will maintain MVFR-IFR
shower activity along with a SChc TS into Sat evening.

&&

.MARINE...S winds back SELY through the afternoon and increase due
to an approaching front. By early evening gale force winds of
35-40kt are expected over the southern half of the outside waters.
These winds then track over the inside waters through midnight
with Icy Strait southward seeing a period of 30-35kt winds with
potential for higher gusts. Behind the front, winds shift to the
SW Saturday morning then slowly decrease. Seas will build with the
front Friday evening, then remain elevated over the southern gulf
through Saturday due to swell on the south side of the low
pressure. With expected wind shift and a quick round of heavy
rain overnight, boat owners may want to check moorings and bilge
pumps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Precip values of 1.5-2 inches may threaten some daily
records, but with the majority falling in a 12 hour window, the
main impact is expected to be steep rises on area creeks and streams.
Given the current levels, no flooding is expected, but will
continue to monitor as this system evolves.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight
     for AKZ021-022-026>028.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031>036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1052 PM AKDT Fri Aug 27 2021

AKZ020>029-282100-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican,
Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon, Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell,
Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder
1052 PM AKDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY...

Rain has become heavier across the region Friday evening, and will
persist into Saturday morning before easing. The heaviest rainfall
will fall between late Friday evening and around 10 AM Saturday
morning. We are expecting 1 to 2 inches plus of rainfall across
the region. A few locations could see daily record rainfall
amounts. River and lakes will see rises into Saturday, but no
flooding is expected.

In addition, strong, gusty winds of 45 mph will continue to
batter the southern Panhandle through early Saturday morning
before easing. Expect breezy conditions in the north but winds
should not be as strong as across the south.