Small Craft Advisory 376, NWS Juneau, AK

332 
FZAK52 PAJK 241138
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-250545-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front associated with an area of low pressure reaches the
panhandle Tuesday morning. Another system arrives in the 
panhandle late Tuesday night. Outlook: Ridging rebuilds over the
 Gulf Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-250545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-250545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-250545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-250545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Out of interior bays and passes, gusts to
35 kt early in the morning. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-250545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

558 
FZAK52 PAJK 242309
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-251715-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system moves into the southern gulf Tuesday night 
before shifting south of the panhandle Wednesday night. Onshore 
flow develops Thursday as weak ridging builds through the gulf. 

$$

PKZ041-251715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-251715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-251715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-251715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-251715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
309 PM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...A weak ridge along the coast mountain range has
slowed the eastward movement of systems across the gulf. A frontal
band is moving into the Yakutat area this evening and then will
move to the panhandle overnight and it stalls at the coast
mountains. The associated weak surface low south of the Kenai
Peninsula dissipates or is absorbed into the a broad weak low
moving across the south central gulf. This second low stays on the
southern side of gulf and primarily impacts the southern half of
the panhandle, though the northern section gets a small influx ov
moisture, and the northeast gulf coast is grazed by precipitation
of the second wave.

The low tracks slowly to the Southeast Gulf of Alaska off of
Prince of Wales Island by Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Flow along the surface trough just off shore the panhandle will
be weak southerly to off shore, meanwhile mid level flow is
westerly onshore flow. As a result the panhandle will keep the
mostly cloud to cloudy skies and maintain the chance to likely
rain PoPs. Have left the Wednesday night to Thursday precip as
stratiform, although it could be more showery in impact, and
favoring upslope locations for PoPs and QPF.

Wind wise small a band of small craft along the shore from about
Cape Fairweather westward. A small Barrier jet tonight up to 35 kt
gales, is expected west of Icy Bay flowing towards southern Kayak
Island. Winds weaken less than small craft after midday Tuesday.
into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday as of 10PM Sunday/...A
post-frontal wave will come ashore somewhere in the southern to
central Panhandle on Thursday. A short-lived dirty ridging
pattern, bringing onshore flow and scattered topographic showers,
looks to build into the eastern Gulf and Panhandle for the Friday
timeframe. The next low and associated front look to approach
southeast Alaska for the weekend and dive southeastward by Sunday
as the surface low center approaches the central Panhandle. If
it, instead, maintained its eastward track and slightly slower
speed that the models have for the system as it passes over the
central Gulf, a modest atmospheric river scenario could emerge as
model Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) values for that
timeframe are around 700 kg/(ms) for southeast AK as a decently
long central Pacific deep moisture fetch is present during that
timeframe. At the moment, that does not look like it will occur.
As things look, currently, any significant rainfall should be
short-lived. For the final day and a half of the forecast period,
general ridging looks to build into the eastern Gulf and southeast
Alaska with a fairly relaxed gradient, bringing drier conditions,
decreased cloudiness, and winds on the lighter side.

Winds of up to 30 knots may occur for the outside waters north of
Cape Decision as the 2nd frontal system approaches the Panhandle
on Saturday, which will bring some enhanced wave and swell action
to the outer coast through Saturday.

As for temperatures, generally, highs look to stay in the 50s to
middle 60s throughout the period from north to south, respectively.
Lows look to remain around the upper 40s to middle 50s from north
to south, respectively.

Forecast confidence is average for the long term forecast period.
A GFS/NAM/CMC/EC blend was used to capture an average position
of the upcoming lows. The 18Z GFS and NAM wanted to go with a
more northerly track, bringing the lows ashore into the central
Panhandle. The EC and CMC both wanted to bring the systems into
the Dixon Entrance/Graham Island area. Update: As of writing this,
the 00Z GFS has come in. It has come more in line with the EC &
CMC with an updated track that dips southeastward before it
reaches the Panhandle for the Saturday through Sunday system.
Therefore, some adjustments may need to be made to the long-term,
tomorrow, unless a jog back toward the north occurs with the next
couple of model runs.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051.

&&

Bezenek/JLC

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