Small Craft Advisory 370, NWS Juneau, AK

906 
FZAK52 PAJK 182334
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191745-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening front will drift south of the panhandle.  A general
ridging pattern builds in over the region before a weak wave
moves into the northeastern Gulf late in the work week and into 
the weekend. 

$$

PKZ041-191745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
216 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing low
pressure system that moved into the NE Gulf with the associated
gale force front crossing the eastern AK Gulf. Heavy rain from
long fetch of tropical moisture was aimed at Yakutat earlier with
rain totals so far around one inch today. Rain moved south towards
the central panhandle with the front through the day and will
then pass into the southern areas this evening. Heaviest rain
still at higher elevations and along western facing slopes. As
expected only minor rises in any rivers or streams from the rain
so far. A wave rising over a high pressure ridge in the N Pacific
will enhance precip over the southern areas Wednesday. Expect a
change to showers with a diminishing trend from north to south as
the low in the NE gulf weakens and dissipates by Wednesday night.
High pressure becomes reestablished by Thursday but keeping some
pop over the area due to onshore flow. Inner channel winds picked
up to small craft levels this afternoon and will drop off through
the late evening with lighter winds for Wednesday into Thursday.
Little in diurnal temperature range due to cloud cover and rain,
with some warmer temps over the next few days due to the drying
and clearing trend. Models overall remain in line and little
change made to inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Tuesday, as of 10 PM Monday /
Zonal flow which had established itself in the upper levels during
the first half of the week gives way to a more unsettled pattern
which will bring a series of troughs and ridges across the area
through the long term. Closer to the surface, this will be
reflected in a series of relatively weak systems which will try to
make their way into the panhandle. While systems which do make it
into the area will bring with them rain and wind they do not
currently look likely to bring much in the way of significant
impacts.

While lingering chances of rain persist through the second half
of the week, no substantial precip is expected through the first
part of the long-term forecast period. It is likely that many
areas may even see some breaks in the clouds. A weak impulse may
move along the northern flank of a low level ridge over the N
Pacific and enter the panhandle Friday into Saturday. However,
operational runs currently lean towards the system being fairly
weak and discrepancies in anticipated track between various
ensemble runs all point towards the possibility that the system
may not even materialize. For the time being, have maintained
chances of rain in the forecast, but will need to continue
monitoring incoming data over the coming days. During the latter
half of the weekend a ridge could set up over the gulf. Given its
progged position SE could see more widespread sun, barring areas
along the coast which may experience a marine layer. However,
still too far out to say with any degree of confidence at this
time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-041-042-053.

&&

PRB/GFS

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