Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Juneau, AK

604 
FZAK51 PAJK 141133
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-150230-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
High pressure ridge builds briefly over the Panhandle Saturday.
A low pressure trough moves across the gulf into the Panhandle 
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Outlook. High pressure builds 
over the gulf Monday ahead of the next storm system. 

$$

PKZ011-150230-
Glacier Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-150230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-150230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-150230-
Icy Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft early in the morning
then 2 ft or less. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-150230-
Cross Sound-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-150230-
Stephens Passage-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-150230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-150230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except
7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 2 ft or less,
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-150230-
Frederick Sound-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-150230-
Sumner Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-150230-
Clarence Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light, then
becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, except
4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 5 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ The peak of the well
advertised atmospheric river (AR) occurred this afternoon with
rainfall amounts and winds all going according to the forecast.
12z Yakutat RAOB soundings indicated record off the chart IVT
Values (800+ kg/m/s) and high PW values associated with this
system. Over the past 48 hours the NE Gulf Coast from Pelican to
Yakutat picked up 6 to 14 inches of rain! Rainfall amounts of 3 to
5 inches have fallen across much of the Icy Strait corridor and
Juneau. Water rises on area lakes and streams occurred prompting
the issuance of numerous Flood Advisories and Warnings in Juneau,
Upper Lynn Canal, and Yakutat. Water levels will remain elevated
and begin to drop over the next day or so as the heaviest rain
ends and lighter rain showers persist. Satellite imagery this
afternoon shows a wave of low pressure near Yakutat with the main
front pushing eastward through the Panhandle shutting off the AR
from west to east. Dynamics significantly weaken as the AR moves
into the Central and Southern Panhandle this evening; therefore
not expecting any flooding impacts across this region. A showery
onshore flow pattern sets up this evening through the rest of the
weekend keeping the chance for showers across most areas. The most
widespread shower activity occurs Saturday evening through early
Sunday morning, especially across the Southern 1/2 of the
Panhandle as another wave moves in. Another 0.5 to 1 inch of rain
is possible during this timeframe, however not expecting any
flooding impacts at this time.

The good news is a drying trend begins Sunday afternoon and
persists through Monday! The Panhandle should see a well deserved
dry break after some areas received over a month's worth of rain
this past week.

Winds remain elevated across the Northern Panhandle this evening
as the front pushes through and winds shift from SE to SW. Expect
strong winds with gusts to 40 mph through the evening, especially
as the wind shift occurs in Upper Lynn Canal and Juneau. High end
small crafts and low end Gales for much of the Northern Inner
Channels will gradually diminish late this evening behind the
front. A westerly flow pattern sets up for the weekend with much
lighter winds throughout the Inner Channels. A weak wave pushes
into the Southern Panhandle Saturday evening increasing winds over
the far south to 15-20 kt through Sunday morning.

Overall no major changes made to the forecast, mainly just minor
updates to the near term weather and added more detail to the
Sunday (day 3) forecast. Confidence remains at or above average.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Friday, as of 9 PM Thursday / A wave
which pushed into the area following the departure of the previous
atmospheric river will push out through the day on Sunday. Do not
expect this wave to generate significant precipitation totals as
compared to the previous few systems. Behind it, lingering showers
for parts of the outer coast as low and mid-level westerly flow
steer Pacific moisture into the coastal mountains.

Ridging will likely be able to rebuild through much of the Monday
through Tuesday timeframe. In the lower levels of the troposphere,
this will help cut off the supply of moisture responsible for the
lingering chances of rain in some parts of the area. Consequently,
expect that the panhandle will see an opportunity to dry out,
especially in the southern half of the panhandle. Some offshore
flow may even yield breaks in the cloud cover for the area.

Unfortunately, the return of more pleasant weather will be short-
lived, as a disturbance races up from the Alaska Peninsula into
the area. There continue to be some significant timing differences
from run-to-run, and even between the ensembles, but all agree
that something will race up to impact the area between Tuesday and
Wednesday. Notably enough, given the plume of moisture that looks
likely to accompany it, think this system could bring a
respectable amount of rain to the area. Given the timing
differences, am currently leaning towards the less aggressive ends
for QPF totals, but this may need to be changed going forward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Most of the streams and rivers over the Northeast
Gulf Coast and northern half of the panhandle have begun to fall
as heavy precipitation is moving out of the area. Flood
advisories will continue through this evening on the smaller
streams in the Juneau and Yakutat areas including the Situk River,
Montana Creek, Jordan Creek; however they should fall below minor
flood stage by Saturday morning. There are 2 flood warnings
currently in effect for the Mendenhall Lake in Juneau and the
Taiya River near Skagway. These rivers have not crested yet but
should do so overnight tonight. With that said, these warning will
remain in effect into Saturday as it will take time for all the
water and ice melt to filter out of the headwaters. There were
some minor impacts in the advisory areas and more significant
impacts in the warning areas. To note, the Taiya River rose to the
second highest stage on record above 19.0 feet and the Situk
River crested at its third highest on record. By Sunday all rivers
and stream should fall below minor flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Warning until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018-019-025.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ019>023.
     Areal Flood Warning until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ018.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-031.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-032>034-041>043-051-052.

&&

CM/GFS/ABJ

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