Small Craft Advisory 357, NWS Juneau, AK

413 
FZAK51 PAJK 121629
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-130215-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A front tracks NE into the northern and central Panhandle this 
afternoon, then stalls over the next couple days. At the same 
time, a ridge of high pressure persists across the southern 
Panhandle through Friday. Outlook: A wave of low pressure moves NE
into the NE Gulf Coast while its associated front pushes SE 
through the Panhandle Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-130215-
Glacier Bay-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021


.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-130215-
Northern Lynn Canal-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 50 kt
in the evening. Seas 6 ft.Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-130215-
Southern Lynn Canal-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-130215-
Icy Strait-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-130215-
Cross Sound-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-130215-
Stephens Passage-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-130215-
Northern Chatham Strait-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near the Icy Strait
entrance. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late near the Icy Strait
entrance. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-130215-
Southern Chatham Strait-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021


.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ034-130215-
Frederick Sound-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late.  
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-130215-
Sumner Strait-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-130215-
Clarence Strait-
829 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...An atmospheric river type front is stretched across
the western gulf with the moisture plume directed at the NE gulf.
Rainfall rates have been increasing through the day across the
Yakutat area with lighter amounts falling over the rest of the
northern panhandle. Moderate to heavy rain will continue through
Thursday in Yakutat, followed by decreasing rates on Friday as the
front shifts SE. Over a quarter inch of rain had fallen in Yakutat as
of 1 PM Wednesday with a Storm Total rainfall of 5 to 7 inches
expected. For the rest of the northern panhandle, light rain will
continue through mid-day Thurs, then rates will become heavy
Thursday evening. Storm Total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is
expected as far south as Sitka, with most of that falling between
Thursday evening and Friday morning. Greatest rainfall will occur
along southwest facing mountain slopes. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for these areas.

Strong warm air advection is arriving with the front. This and
cloud cover will cause the current temperature to be fairly close
to our minimums. Despite the WAA, do not think that highs over the
next two days will get as warm as models suggest. The south will
be warm, but places with rain may struggle to get to 60.

Timing of the front shifting SE was sped up slightly for Friday.
We now expect the Petersburg area to get rain by early morning
and Ketchikan to get into the action Friday afternoon. As the
front moves through, CAA will set in and the rain will become more
showery in nature.

...Land and Marine Winds...

A building surface ridge from the south combined with passing
waves of low pressure through the northern gulf will keep a tight
baroclinic zone across much of the Northern Panhandle and and NE
Gulf. Warm air advection aloft will keep the atmosphere quite
stable; therefore widespread strong winds are not expected despite
winds remaining elevated. Winds, however, will fluctuate through
the period increasing as small systems pass by and as the gradient
tightens through the afternoon hours. The tight southerly
gradient will keep small craft conditions in Northern Lynn Canal
through much of the period. Winds through the rest of the Northern
Inner Channels will stay elevated around 15-20 kt, with higher
gusts possible. Strong winds to 40 mph are expected Thursday
afternoon across Upper Lynn Canal and along the Klondike Hwy as
the southerly gradient increases during the day.

Guidance has come into better agreement on the track of a wave of
low pressure moving NE through the gulf on Friday. This wave will
move into the NE gulf coast Friday morning as it pushes a 45 kt
low level jet into the Northern Panhandle. Expect 20-25 kt winds
through the Northern and Central Inner Channels Friday morning
with higher gusts possible as winds shift from a more SE direction
to SW. Land winds of 15-25 mph likely during the morning hours
with higher gusts across Upper Lynn Canal.

A weak westerly flow pattern sets up Friday evening into the
weekend as the main baroclinic zone responsible for the parade of
storms falls apart and the main upper low moves overhead. This
pattern will lead to a dramatic diminishing trend in the winds
from north to south Friday evening through Saturday.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday, as of 10 PM Tuesday / Strong
southwest flow at 500 mb across the gulf and into the panhandle
will continue into Friday. A 500 mb level trough will move through
late Friday which is supporting the Friday system as it develops.
The full mid level trough will move through the panhandle by
early Sunday morning.

A brief break might be in the wings for Sunday because of the
trough passage and as a weak ridge moves into the eastern gulf and
panhandle. Should expect an increase of PoP early next week after
the brief break as the southwest mid level flow returns by mid
week to push troughs into the panhandle along with associated
fronts.

Southern panhandle still looks be the driest spot, as the former
AR will transform into more of a north wave-like low/front and
that will spread the potentially short-lived heavier rain rates
Friday into Saturday. Showers should be tapering off Saturday for
the forecast region and it may prove interesting to when rains
start to return next week with westerly flow returning.

Winds got a boost especially for Friday along the outside as the
developing wave lifts NE into the northeast gulf and then across
the northern panhandle. Winds have been increased to 25-30 kt and
and some of the inner channels like Chatham and Stephens Passages.
are looking like they will blow at least 20 kt.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
     AKZ018>023-025.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051>053.

&&

CM/Bezenek

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