Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Juneau, AK

421 
FZAK52 PAJK 151503 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-160915-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low over the eastern gulf will dissipate on Friday.
A ridge will build in over the Panhandle Friday night. A gale
force front will enter the eastern gulf from the west  early on
Saturday.  

$$

PKZ041-160915-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. SW 
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 40 kt becoming W. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-160915-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 40 kt becoming W. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-160915-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 19 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-160915-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain 
late. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-160915-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
603 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 16 ft. Rain
late. 
.SAT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 24 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 



$$

228 
FZAK52 PAJK 160033
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161845-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weak ridge will move over the panhandle tonight. A storm force 
front will pass through the gulf and reach the coast on Saturday. 
The front will weaken Saturday night with a weak ridge building 
Sunday. A gale force low moves into the gulf Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-161845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 22 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 40 kt becoming W. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 21 ft. S
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S gale to 40 kt becoming W. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 21 ft. S
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
18 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain
late. 
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain 
late. 
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the evening.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 24 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKST Thu Jan 14 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Thursday night through Saturday/ Quite the active
day across Southeast Alaska (as indicted by the same person (me)
writing both discussions). A storm force front pushes into the
Panhandle this evening bringing high winds to the outer coast,
rain to most areas, and heavy snow to the Haines and Klondike
Highways. So far this afternoon conditions have been going
according to the forecast with only minor updates made.

Included snow for areas near sea level in Upper Lynn Canal as the
northerly gradient will keep colder air locked at the surface
through at least midnight. As precipitation moves northward into
drier air, snow melt cooling will take place further cooling
Haines and Skagway down to near the freezing mark. Added 3 to 5
inches for sea level and increased snow amounts on the Haines
Highway to 12 to 18 inches. Elsewhere, rain will continue through
Friday morning before changing to showers within the southwesterly
flow behind the front. Rainfall amounts through tomorrow
afternoon will be around an inch with upslope favored areas
receiving upwards of 1.5 to 2 inches. Added a slight chance of
thunderstorms just behind the front for the coastal waters from
the Dixon Entrance to near Cape Fairweather Friday morning due to
an increase in instability during that time frame. Expect showers
to become more scattered in nature Friday into Friday night with
windward facing slopes receiving more widespread activity.

Another system is forecast to impact the region on Saturday as a
low moves northward into the western gulf swinging another storm
force front into the Panhandle. Minimal changes were made today to
the forecast for this system. Storm force conditions expected
along the NE Gulf coast with gales extending southward toward the
Dixon Entrance. Small crafts will develop in the Southern Inner
Channels and gales in Clarence Strait as the front pushes inland
Saturday afternoon. Strong winds with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible
along the outer coast as the front pushes through. With a low
level jet of 50-60 kt just above surface (compared to 85 kt with
the system today), not expecting high winds to be an issue at the
moment. Occasionally heavy rain rates possible as IVT values
upwards of 500 kg/m/s will be associated with this front. 24 hour
rainfall amounts through Sunday morning will be around 1 to 1.5
inches with upslope favored areas possibly seeing higher numbers.

This pattern is expected to repeat itself through early next
week, as mentioned in the long term discussion below. On the
bright side, dry weather (Possibly sun!) could make a visit to
Southeast Alaska in about a week. Just a little something to get
you through the gloomy forecast!

Overall forecast confidence is high through the short term. Only
area of concern is the snowfall forecast for Haines and Skagway
this evening as snowfall amounts could be higher than forecast if
northerly winds persist longer than expected.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday night as of 10 PM Wed/...
The parade of storms continues into the long range with multiple
systems moving into the gulf through the middle of next week. The
period begins with an upper low in the western Gulf Saturday
afternoon. The upper low then retrogrades northwest and becomes
absorbed in the upper flow as broad ridging and onshore flow
dominate the eastern Gulf Sunday through early Monday. By the
middle of next week, models and ensembles all indicate a potential
pattern change as upper level ridging builds over the gulf and
much of the state bringing an end to the parade of storms.

At the surface, a low moves northward towards Kodiak Island while
swinging a gale force front into the Panhandle on Saturday.
Southwesterly flow sets up behind the front through Sunday before
the next low moves up into the western gulf on Monday. After the
early week front pushes through, a building ridge in the gulf will
switch the overall flow around to the northwest. A weak wave
within the flow may pass by on Wednesday before a building high
moves into the area, ushering in the start of the much needed
pattern change.

The sensible weather pattern will continue to be wet, as is
typical for this time of the year, with locally heavy precipitation
associated with the passage of each frontal system. The general
onshore pattern will provide for continued warmer (relatively
speaking) air such that precip type will be predominantly rain for
lower elevations except the higher elevations along the Haines
and Klondike Highways. A drying trend begins mid next week as flow
becomes northwesterly and eventually offshore with the building
ridge. (First sunny day of the year?!)

Overall model agreement is good through Monday then begins to
diverges some by mid next week regarding the potential wave
passing by on Wednesday and the evolution of the building ridge in
the gulf. Despite some model differences, there is still good
agreement in the models and ensembles of the general weather
pattern. Used a blend of WPC/EC/GFS for winds and timing of the
fronts then trended towards WPC for the latter part of the long
term. Overall forecast confidence remains at or above average
through the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017-022-025-028.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032-053.

&&

CM/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1020 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.23N 135.45W
01/14/2021  M7.5 INCH        HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7.5 INCHES AT HAINES AT 10 PM. STILL
            SNOWING.

0430 PM     SNOW             3 S MOSQUITO LAKE       59.38N 136.03W
01/14/2021  M7.5 INCH        HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. STILL COMING
            DOWN.

&&