Small Craft Advisory 335, NWS Juneau, AK

305 
FZAK52 PAJK 122308
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131715-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A closed low remains over the central Gulf. The low will linger 
over the central Gulf and slowly weaken through mid-week. 

$$

PKZ041-131715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers early in the
evening. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light.
Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft this evening subsiding to 6 
ft late.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft this evening subsiding to 7 ft
late.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

639 
FZAK52 PAJK 131153
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140600-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure over the central Gulf will slowly weaken through
Wednesday while a ridge of high pressure settles over the inner
channels. Outlook. Another low will track east across the north
Pacific and approach the Dixon Entrance area on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-140600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming variable. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
353 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
553 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...A stacked gale force low pressure system over the
central gulf will be the main weather maker of the week. On
satellite imagery, the low and its fronts span the width of the
gulf plus the inner channels. The front moved inland overnight
and is causing rain for all but the far SE corner of the panhandle
this morning. Radar shows embedded heavier bands of precipitation,
a sign that the system is already becoming more convective. So
expect the rain to have periodic moderate rates and some gusty
winds, especially through mid morning. Frontal passage looks to
occur in the late afternoon with a slight wind shift to the S then
SW tonight. At that point precip will be showery with more breaks
and the clouds may as well.

The low will remain over the central gulf through Tuesday, but
will be gradually filling with a weakening pressure gradient. So
expect winds and seas to ease tonight through Tuesday. Showers
will continue to rotate about the low and onshore through Tuesday
but should be more widely scattered with sunny breaks.

Models are in good agreement with respect to the upper low and the
way that it becomes elongated with troughs/vorticity maxima
rotating about it through the short term. A more pronounced vort
max/wave separates from the main low on Tuesday night and tracks
over the northern inner channels through Wednesday morning. This
will cause an organized band of showers, so have higher POP in the
forecast during that timeframe for the north.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday night/...As of Sunday
evening. An elongated upper low oriented northeast to southwest
will be on the verge of becoming caught up in a large upper trough
at the start of this extended range forecast period. The low
itself will remain over the eastern Gulf through Thursday night
and provide the avenue for the upper trough to dig well to the
south with the aide of an 85 kt northerly jet that moves offshore
in the vicinity of Cape Suckling. As this jet rounds the base of
the upper trough, a large and very broad upper low will take the
place of the original and encompass the entire eastern Gulf,
virtually all of Southeast Alaska, as well as a sizable portion of
British Columbia by Saturday afternoon. This whole complex will
shift slowly to the east through the remainder of the long range
forecast period and devolve into a deep upper trough.

At the surface, a vertically stacked surface reflection of the
dominant upper low will be undercut by another surface low moving
west to east over the southern periphery of the Gulf. This second
low will absorb the first one overnight Wednesday night and
continue to the east. Models diverge on where and when this
feature will cross the coast, ranging from Prince of Wales Island
on Thursday night to the central British Columbia coast on Friday
night. The current forecast represents a bias towards the earlier,
more northerly solution represented by the GFS.

In terms of sensible weather, rain showers resulting from the
current weather system will persist into this long range forecast
period with the focus being on the northern half of the Panhandle.
Showers will still be in the area when rain/showers from the
second low arrive, but the focus will shift to the southern half
of the Panhandle. A very slow drying trend will begin on Thursday
night and progress from north to south through the weekend and
into the following work week. Winds are not looking like they
will be very impactful with maximum conditions of 15 kts on the
inside and outside for the vast majority of the long range period.
The exception to this generalization may be over northern Lynn
Canal where winds may increase periodically to 20 kts, especially
due to sea breeze influences.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-042-051-053.

&&

Ferrin/Fritsch

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