Small Craft Advisory 329, NWS Juneau, AK

618 
FZAK52 PAJK 101155
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110600-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure remains over the Panhandle through the
weekend. A closed surface low moves into the western  Gulf
Sunday into Monday. Outlook. The surface low remains in the 
Gulf through the start of the week.  

$$

PKZ041-110600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding
to 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
355 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers early in the morning,
then rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

031 
FZAK52 PAJK 101521 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110600-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure remains over the Panhandle through the
weekend. A closed surface low moves into the western  Gulf
Sunday into Monday. Outlook. The surface low remains in the 
Gulf through the start of the week.  

$$

PKZ041-110600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding
to 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
721 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers early in
the morning, then rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

373 
FZAK52 PAJK 102327
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111730-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the Panhandle will shift to the
east late Sunday. A closed surface low moves into the western
Gulf Sunday as the associated front crosses the Gulf through
Monday. Outlook. The Gulf low slowly moves east through the
week. 

$$

PKZ041-111730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog late. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...In the flow pattern aloft has a general trough that
persists while an impulse drops south from near the Seward
Peninsula to over Kodiak Island Saturday night into the western
gulf where it will settle in place to Monday afternoon. As the
settles in through Monday if forms into a fairly strong closed
system with the mid level main flow stream from the central
Aleutians and curving around the Gulf to the northern BC coastal
and and southern panhandle.

At the surface a ridge builds over the eastern gulf and panhandle
sharpen along the coast mountains through Sunday night, and this
will help stall the weather front over the gulf, keeping most of
the rains west of 140 W and curving back to towards Prince William
Sound and Kenai Peninsula.

For Friday there is an impulse pulling NNE towards the southern
panhandle, so bumped up PoPs and QPF there for the late night and
Saturday section of the forecast. Onshore flow continues over the
rest of the panhandle with the more favorable spot being west of
Yakutat. Saturday into Sunday the panhandle area should see
showers ending and staying that way way into the start of next
week until the front stalled over the gulf finally pushes into the
panhandle area.

The Northeast Gulf Coast area will likely keep rain in the
forecast mainly west of Yakutat, although that changes by Sunday
night as the band moves to impact the Yakutat area.

The front on Sunday from the moderately deep low near 1000 mb
will be in an area of tightened pressure gradient so will Winds
increase to Small Craft or better (25 kt) through Sunday night
ranging to near Gale in around Cape Suckling.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/ As of 10pm Thursday. The
extended forecast remains dominated by the first closed low
pressure system to move into the Gulf of Alaska in well over 2
weeks.

A broad upper level trough will slowly move East out of the
Western Gulf through the forecast period. While the ensembles and
operational runs do continue to show some disagreement on where
exactly it moves, all agree that it will spend much of the
upcoming week over the Gulf of Alaska. Closer to the surface, it
is this uncertainty in the location of the center of the low that
will prove to be the primary forecasting challenge. Model runs
have backed off on an initial wave of precipitation entering the
area during the weekend, instead taking this first wave further to
the West, bringing it over South Central Alaska. There continues
to be some indication that rain isn't out of the question for SE
Alaska during the Monday-Tuesday time frame. This will however be
largely dependent on how exactly the main low phases with a wave
carrying abundant moisture moving S of it in the N Pacific.
Afterwards, continuing onshore flow will help keep chances of rain
across much of SE AK as the parent low slowly decays-perhaps with
some additional bands of vorticity moving up along its eastern
flank into the panhandle. However, given rapidly growing forecast
uncertainty by this point, am not willing to fully agree with any
operational run-particularly given that the ensembles agreement is
scarcely any better.

Looking further afield, there are some signs that the decaying low
in the gulf will merge with another system entering the gulf
through Thursday, which could send another frontal band our way.
Otherwise, minimal changes made to the forecast through the time
period. Temperatures generally lean a bit on the cool side as
cloud cover helps keep the worst of the thermal radiation at
bay,though think that the S panhandle will by and large be
warmer than the N panhandle. Forecaster confidence is below
average regarding the strength and timing of the bands of
precipitation moving through the panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft level winds 25 to 30 kt start spread into
the coastal zones from Cape Suckling south and east through
Sunday night. Even a narrow band of Gale Force winds of 35 kt
over the area west of Icy Bay coastal zones for Sunday and Sunday
night. Gales are not that common for mid summer in the gulf so
highlighting with mention here.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-052.

&&

Bezenek/GFS

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