Small Craft Advisory 327, NWS Juneau, AK

012 
FZAK51 PAJK 072345
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-081645-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Surface ridge of high pressure continues to weaken as low 
pressure passes over southern Alaska. A surface ridge builds over 
the panhandle Thursday ahead of the next disturbance arriving 
Friday. Outlook. A closed surface low moves into the gulf over the
weekend. 

$$

PKZ011-081645-
Glacier Bay-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-081645-
Northern Lynn Canal-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021


.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-081645-
Southern Lynn Canal-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-081645-
Icy Strait-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Showers.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-081645-
Cross Sound-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-081645-
Stephens Passage-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Winds light and variable. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-081645-
Northern Chatham Strait-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-081645-
Southern Chatham Strait-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 
5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-081645-
Frederick Sound-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-081645-
Sumner Strait-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-081645-
Clarence Strait-
345 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
552 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thu night/ Onshore flow has returned to the
panhandle this morning as clouds have filled in over just about
the entire area. Some lower ceilings (down to 800 feet) have been
noted around Prince of Wales Island, and ceilings down to 1500
feet are common along the outer coast and southern panhandle right
now. However, there has been little in the way of rain observed so
far. As of 5 am only Yakutat, Sitka, Hydaburg, and Klawock have
seen any, and even then it has only been traces so far.

The trend of cloudier with chances of rain and cooler temperatures
is expected to continue through the rest of the short range
period as onshore flow continues. Highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s will be the norm for Wed and Thu. Chances of rain will mainly
be for the northern panhandle, but I can't completely rule out
some light rain at times for the southern panhandle. Highest
chance of rain comes Thu night as a trough moves in from the gulf.

As for winds, the highest are in Northern Lynn Canal and Skagway
where 20 to 25 kt winds are being observed at Eldred Rock this
morning. These winds  Otherwise winds are rather light with 15 kt
at most for most locations through Thu night.

Little in the way of forecast changes overall. Generally stayed
more toward Nam and Gfs for guidance.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/ As of 10pm Tuesday. The
extended forecast is dominated by the first closed low pressure
system to move into the Gulf of Alaska in well over 2 weeks.
Blocked patterns with a period of dry weather often last around 10
days, this one will be right at that, but with Ketchikan seeing a
few extra days since their last measurable rainfall was back on
June 25th.

Before that happens, on Friday an upper level trough over the gulf
will continue the SWLY onshore flow and showers affecting region.
Least amount of showers can be expected on the lee side of the
mountains, while upslope areas, especially around Yakutat will see
the most numerous showers.

Friday night a fairly well stacked low pressure center will move
southward across the Alaska Peninsula and into the western gulf
Saturday. This low then lingers over the central gulf through most
of next week bringing categorical rain back to the region. POP looks
likely for Yakutat on Saturday, spreading eastward through Sunday.
Ketchikan/Hyder may take until Monday or Tuesday for the rain to
arrive. Models differ on the track of the low after it moves into
the central gulf mid-weekend. Have favored the GFS solution for
this forecast package, which keeps the low in the gulf the longest
and has been the most consistent. New 00z models were trending
closer to the GFS idea as well, giving more confidence. With more
confidence, have increased wind speeds over the outside waters to
25-30kt and elevated POP to 70%. With more cloud cover and rain,
temperatures will be closer to normal or even slightly below.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

EAL/Ferrin

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